Scientific Highlights
         
WRF Model Development
The WRF Project is a collaborative effort among a number of organizations to develop a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that will advance both the understanding and prediction of important mesoscale precipitation systems, and promote closer ties between the research and operational forecasting communities.  Joseph Klemp, William Skamarock, John Michalakes, Jimy Dudhia, Shu-Hua Chen, David Gill, and Wei Wang have been working in cooperation with other WRF developers to complete an early version of the model that will be released to the community in the first quarter of FY01.  This prototype integrates the fully compressible nonhydrostatic equations in scalar-conserving flux form using a time-split small step for acoustic modes.  It contains a variety of options for the basic physics packages, including cloud microphysics, boundary-layer/surface processes, cumulus parameterizations, and short-wave and long-wave radiation. These options provide sufficient physics sophistication to allow WRF to be used for preliminary real-data testing. (See figure 1 at right.).  

Figure 1 (click on figure to view larger version): Supercell Thunderstorm Simulation. Height coordinate model, (dx = dy = 2 km, dz = 500 m, dt = 12 s, 160 x 160 x 20 km domain ); Surface temperature, surface winds and cloud field at 2 hours

         
STEPS
Morris Weisman, Jay Miller, and Charlie Knight played a lead role in planning and conducting the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) field program in Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas from 22 May to 16 July 2000.  The broad goal was to achieve a better understanding of the interactions between kinematics, precipitation production, and electrification in severe thunderstorms on the High Plains.  A particular interest of the program was to document and better understand the mechanisms by which storms produce predominantly positive cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning.  One of the significant surprises of the field campaign was that positive CG storms were not limited to strongly-sheared supercell hailstorms, as originally thought, but occurred over the entire spectrum of storm types observed.  Preliminary analyses suggest that storms in the STEPS region exhibited a reverse polarity, with positive charge at mid-storm depths and negative charge higher up in the anvil regions.  This finding may have significant implications as to our understanding of both the electrification and microphysical make-up of storms in this part of the world. (See Figure 2 to the right.).    

Figure 2 (click on figure to view larger version): Vertical cross section of reflectivity (top), ZDR (middle), and particle identification (bottom) through a tornadic supercell, as observed by SPOL on 29 June 2000 at 23:36 UTC during the STEPS field program. Surface hailfall, as suggested by the yellow region on the bottom panel, was confirmed by mobile ground units. This storm was also sampled by the T28 aircraft and mobile electric ballooning units, and was characterized by a dominance of positive cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

         
Multi-scale Organization of Convection and Intraseasonal Tropical Variability
Wojciech Grabowski and Mitchell Moncrieff investigated the large-scale organization of tropical deep convection in idealized two-dimensional 40-day cloud-resolving simulations.  The initial state had a constant 10 m/s easterly wind and a uniform sea surface temperature. A prescribed temperature tendency mimics the mean radiative cooling of the tropical troposphere. A 20,000-km computational domain allows interactions among moist convection, mesoscale organization and surface exchange on a wide range of scales.  The large-scale organization of convection and its eastward propagation (See Figure 3 to the right) resembles the supercluster/Madden-Julian Oscillation organization seen in satellite observations.  The large-scale organization is basically explained in terms of convectively coupled Kelvin wave dynamics.  Mesoscale convective systems organized on scales of several hundred kilometers move east-to-west within the envelope of convection.  Convective momentum transport and the effects of the convective systems on temperature and moisture near the surface are key processes.  The convective momentum transport was approximated by a nonlinear analytic theory of organized convection.  

Figure 3 (click on figure to view larger version): Hövmoller (space-time) diagram of the surface precipitation rate for the 2D cloud-resolving simulation using a planetary-scale (20,000 km) computational domain. Areas with surface precipitation rate larger than 0.5mm hr-1 are shaded.  The lines show propagation speed of mesoscale convective systems (-12 ms-1, solid line) and the convection envelope (8 ms-1, dashed line) relative to the earth-stationary observer. Note that surface precipitation from a well-resolved mesoscale convective system is dot-sized in this figure.

         
A New Multi-scale, Multi-purpose Simulation System
A state-of-the-art, highly flexible, nonhydrostatic numerical simulation system is being built in the Cloud Systems Group of MMM aimed at addressing a wide range of key problems in the geophysical research.  This system is designed to execute efficiently on, and to be portable among, a variety of computer architectures, ranging from a single vector processor to massively parallel platforms.  It is founded on modern nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) Eulerian/semi-Lagrangian numerical methods, being developed by Piotr Smolarkiewicz, Wojciech Grabowski, Len Margolin (Los Alamos), Joseph Prusa (Iowa State University), and others.  It has two fully interchangeable primary options, mesoscale and global.  It also has the option of an adaptive grid to enable key parts of multi-scale motion systems to be resolved at high resolution (e.g., convection in tropical intraseasonal oscillations).  This system is presently being used to study (among others) tropical convection on scales up to global; multi-scale organized convection and its parameterization in global models; orographic flows at varying resolution; convection in the solar atmosphere; generation and propagation of coastal (oceanic) solitons; and neurological shock propagation. (See Figure 4 to the right.).  

Figure 4 (click on graphic to view larger version): The vertical velocity on a spherical surface in the middle of the solar convection zone. Red shades denote upflows, while blue shades denote downflows.

         
Microphysical Observations from Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Field Campaigns
The properties of deep tropical stratiform clouds were investigated by Andrew Heymsfield, Aaron Bansemer, William Hall, James Dye and Jeffrey Stith of NCAR, Tony Grainger (UND), and Paul Field (BMO).  They collected data from the UND Citation aircraft in the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) field programs in Florida, Brazil, and Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.  The microphysical data set probably constitutes the most complete set of in-situ data in subtropical and tropical clouds to date. Specialized aircraft flight patterns from the top to bottom of deep stratiform ice and liquid cloud were used to provide information on how ice particles developed in the ice region and then melted within the melting layer.  One example showing how particles developed within a deep ice cloud layer during the TRMM field program at Kwajalein is illustrated in Figure 5 at the left.  The figure shows a stack of individual horizontal lines that have been colorized to denote particle concentration as a function of size in conventional units (number per unit volume per unit bin width).  As part of the research effort, the investigators developed new software to process particle size distribution data.  This software represents an important advance in the field, and is freely available to the community.  

Figure 5 (click on graphic to view larger version): This figure illustrates how the particle size distributions broaden from cloud top downward to approximately 4.5. km.  This growth of the larger particles was through the aggregation process, whereby the larger particles collected the smaller particles in the 100 to 600 micron size range; this resulted in reduced concentrations of the particles < 600 microns.  From about 4.5 to 4.3 km, the particles melted to become rain.  Marshall-Palmer type exponential curves were fitted to the measured size distributions to develop a means of retrieving particle size distributions from radar data, either from the TRMM radar in space or from ground-based radars.  What was found from the 10 cases these authors observed was a systematic variation in the fit parameters with height below cloud top.  Within the melting layer, these parameters also varied in a systematic way.

Studies of Early Precipitation
Charles Knight, working with Jothiram Vivekanandan (NCAR/RAP) and Sonia Lasher-Trapp (NCAR/ASP and Texas A&M University) completed analysis of a detailed data set obtained with the S-Pol radar in PRECIP 98 in central Florida, on precipitation initiation in warm cumulus.  First radar echoes from precipitation were recorded along with ZDR, a measure of raindrop oblateness and hence raindrop size.  It was already known that early radar echoes could be composed of very low concentrations of millimeter- to several-millimeter-diameter raindrops, and this study confirms that, but also finds that drops of this size are often present low in the clouds well before the distinct increase of the radar echo aloft that is usually attributed to the first precipitation growth.  The studies also reveal a way of detecting and characterizing the first significant precipitation formation by the warm rain process.  (The very early, large drops are so sparse that they constitute virtually zero rainfall.)  This occurs high in the clouds and is characterized by rapid increase in Ze with low values of ZDR, signifying more and smaller raindrops, with conversion of significant amounts of cloud water to rain. (No figure applicable).  
         
Improved Parameterizations for Ice Crystal Mass
Accurate parameterizations for the cross-sectional area of ice crystals are important for reasons including the treatment of ice clouds in numerical models, determination of ice cloud properties from satellite and other remote-sensor measurements, and understanding of fundamental processes of ice crystal growth and aggregation.  The cross-sectional area of an ice crystal influences its optical properties, and affects its mass/area ratio from which crystal fallspeed and ice-mass flux are calculated.  Diameter and area are both measured by most particle imaging and particle collection instruments.  Larry Miloshevich and Andy Heymsfield have analyzed observational data to develop parameterizations for ice crystal cross-sectional area as a function of crystal diameter.  Figure 6 to the right shows the parameterization in terms of the "area ratio," which is the ratio of a crystal’s area to the area of a circumscribed circle, an indicator of ice crystal shape and the degree of elongation and openness in its structure.  The parameterization shows that crystals are compact when small, but become elongated and more open as they grow.  The analysis was also performed in height intervals within the clouds, and the slope of the curve is found to decrease from cloud top downward, for reasons concerning fundamental processes of ice crystal growth and aggregation.  These results will allow substantial improvement in the treatment of cloud optical properties, ice mass, and vertical transport of ice in numerical models and in remote sensing techniques.  

Figure 6 (click on graphic to view larger version): Light curves show the ice crystal area ratio as a function of crystal size for different datasets, and the bold curve is an average of the datasets.  Small crystals are round and compact, becoming more elongated and open as they grow, affecting crystal optical properties, fallspeeds, and calculations of crystal mass.

         
Effects of Pollution on Cloud Microphysical Properties
MMM scientists Andrew Heymsfield and Gregory McFarquhar played a significant role in the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) and subsequent analysis, examining how anthropogenic aerosols from the Indian subcontinent affected cloud microphysical properties.  They showed that regimes with high numbers of condensation nuclei (CN), i.e., polluted regions, contained almost three times as many small droplets as compared to the low CN (clean) regimes (see Figure 7 to the right).  Conversely, in the clean regimes mean droplet diameters were 33% larger in the polluted regimes, and more frequent drizzle was measured.  However, in both regions bulk cloud properties such as liquid water content, vertical velocity, and cloud horizontal dimensions were similar.  Studies that parameterized the cloud microphysical properties in terms of bulk variables were also performed.  These parameterizations were used to estimate potential indirect radiative effects associated with the emission of anthropogenic pollutants from the Indian subcontinent due to changing sizes of cloud particles (see Figure 8 below right).  Future studies will further examine effects of aerosols and entrainment on drizzle suppression and cloud radiative properties, possibly through participation in the Asian-Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia).  

Figure 7 (click on figure to view a larger version): Frequency distribution of cloud droplet concentrations from the C130 for all flights during INDOEX in clean regions (where condensation nucleus (CN) concentrations were <500 cm-3), moderately polluted regime (CN = 500 to 1500 cm-3), and polluted regimes (CN > 1500 cm-3).

 

Figure 8 (click on figure to see larger version): Photos from the NCAR C130 aircraft during research flight in the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) showing dirty regime at 0.1 deg N latitude (top) and 4.9 deg S latitude (bottom).

         
Large-Eddy Simulation of a Couple Land-Atmosphere System
Peter Sullivan, Edward Patton (PSU) and Chin-Hoh Moeng developed a new large-eddy simulation (LES) model that couples the atmospheric boundary layer to a land surface model (LSM).  To date the investigations have concentrated on examining the interaction between soils with heterogeneous soil moisture and the PBL.  Results from a typical calculation in a domain of 30 x 5 x 2 kilometers with 50 x 50 x 20 meter resolution are shown in the attached movie clip (click on figure 9 to the right).  Contours of specific humidity in an x-y plane at z = 10 meters in the atmosphere are depicted.  Complex boundary layer circulations are generated by the difference in soil moisture; over the left half of the domain the soil is wet while over the right half of the domain the soil is dry.  We found that the strength and horizontal extent of the boundary layer circulations induced by the heterogeneous soil moisture were dependent on the level of incoming solar radiation as shown in figure 10 below right. The new simulation code uses the message passing interface (MPI) and is capable of utilizing more than 200 processors depending on the size of the problem.  

Figure 9 (click on figure to view movie): The time evolution of a horizontal (x-y) slice of water vapor mixing ratio at ten meters.  The two hundred frames in the movie span approximately one half hour of simulated time.  Purple corresponds with high mixing ratio and red with low mixing ratio.

Figure 10 (click on figure to see larger version): Instantaneous y-averaged velocity vectors in an x-z plane from two coupled LES-LSM simulations responding to two different values of incoming solar radiation (700, 350) W/m-2.  Colors and vector length depict velocity magnitude.  Red: large magnitude, Black: small magnitude.  Heavy black line is the instantaneous y-averaged boundary layer height.

         
Life Cycle of Precipitating Weather Systems

Jordan Powers and Christopher Davis conducted a high-resolution modeling investigation of the genesis and organization of tropical cyclones. Figure 11 at the left shows MM5 output from a 1.2-km simulation of Hurricane Diana (1984).  The simulation of this case is unique in that it prescribes only the synoptic-scale baroclinic wave, yet captures the subsequent development of mesoscale convective structures that lead to tropical cyclogenesis, and does it at cloud-resolving resolution (1.2 km). This is the first successful simulation of the genesis phase of a tropical cyclone wherein the deep convection is well resolved and no cumulus parameterization or artificial implant of an initial vortex is required.

 

 

Figure 11 (right) (click on figure to see larger version): View is of hour 48 of the run (00 UTC 10 Sept 1984) with system at tropical storm stage and shows sea level pressure (dark blue contours) and surface rainwater (shaded).  Both individual convective cells and aggregated convective bands are evident.  Sea level pressure contour interval= 2 mb; rainwater shading scale at bottom (shading begins at .02 g/kg).

         
MM5 Data Assimilation
A goal of the MM5 3DVAR development, being carried out by Dale Barker, Yong-Run Guo, Wei Huang, and Francois Vandenberghe, is to ensure flexibility of the algorithms for potential use in other assimilation schemes, in particular the WRF 3DVAR system.  The capability to assimilate observations from a number of additional observation sources has been added during the year.  These include geostationary satellite’s cloud-track-winds, SSM/I total precipitable water (TPW) and oceanic wind speed and TPW retrieved from ground-based GPS data. An example of the impact of a single TPW observation is shown in figure 12 at the right.  

Figure 12 (click on figure to see larger version) This figure illustrates the response of the MM5 3DVAR system to a hypothetical single total precipitable water (TPW) observation situated over Taiwan. Particular isosurfaces of specific humidity (blue), temperature (yellow) and pressure (purple) are shown, as is the coupled wind response (cyclonic circulation aloft, anticyclonic below) to the TPW observation. The mass/wind coupling is specified via linearised geostrophic/cyclostrophic balance within 3DVAR.