
ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC REPORT, FY 1998
TABLE OF CONTENTS
| I. | PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATING WEATHER SYSTEMS | |||||
| A. | Mesoscale Predictability | |||||
| a. | Ensemble forecasting on the mesoscale | |||||
| b. | Verification of mesoscale model forecasts based on mesoscale predictability | |||||
| c. | Real-time forecast system | |||||
| B. | Life Cycle of Precipitating Weather Systems | |||||
| a. | Helicity versus vertical wind shear | |||||
| b. | Convective evolution in complex mesoscale environments | |||||
| 1. | Results from TOGA COARE | |||||
| 2. | The role of surface boundaries for tornadogenesis | |||||
| 3. | The effect of convective eddies on supercell organization and strength | |||||
| 4. | Convective precipitation within Korean frontal systems | |||||
| 5. | Lifting at a boundary layer convergence line | |||||
| c. | Supercell storms | |||||
| 1. | The impact of supercell storms on their local environment | |||||
| 2. | The prediction of supercell motion | |||||
| 3. | The dependence of supercell potential on buoyancy/shear stratification | |||||
| d. | Gravity-wave processes within three-dimensional convective systems | |||||
| e. | Orographic effects | |||||
| f. | Long-time-scale dynamics of mesoscale convective systems | |||||
| C. | Mesoscale Data Assimilation | |||||
| a. | Assimilation GPS/MET observations | |||||
| b. | Development and community support of the MM5 4D-VAR system | |||||
| c. | Development of MM5 3D-VAR system | |||||
| d. | Optimal use of existing observations and the potential benefits of new observing systems | |||||
| e. | Optimal strategies for obtaining targeted observations in data-sparse regions | |||||
| f. | Assimilation studies for the DOE/ARM program | |||||
| g. | Convective scale data assimilation and storm forecasting | |||||
| 1. | Further development of variational Doppler radar analysis system for operational implementation | |||||
| 2. | 4D-VAR data assimilation and forecast of Buffalo Creek storm | |||||
| h. | Retrieval of large eddy coherent structures in PBL | |||||
| D. | High-resolution Weather Research and Forecast Model Development | |||||
| a. | Comparison of numerical methods | |||||
| b. | Code structure | |||||
| c. | Other external collaborations | |||||
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| II. | MESOSCALE AND MICROSCALE PROCESSES AND IMPACTS | |||||
| A. | Oceanic Cloud Systems and Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Down to Fine Scales | |||||
| a. | Precipitating convective cloud systems | |||||
| 1. | Cloud resolving modeling of large-scale tropical circulations | |||||
| 2. | Fine structure of cloud clusters within the intraseasonal oscillation | |||||
| 3. | On the temperature and moisture biases in CRMs and SCMs | |||||
| 4. | Scale decomposition using wavelet analysis | |||||
| b. | Surface fluxes over the ocean | |||||
| 1. | Surface energy budget and ocean response | |||||
| 2. | DMS emission over the tropical Pacific | |||||
| 3. | Boundary layer response to oceanic upwelling and precipitation fallout | |||||
| c. | Marine stratocumulus | |||||
| 1. | Entrainment-rate formula for buoyancy-driven cloud-topped PBL | |||||
| B. | Surface-Atmosphere Coupling at Small Scales | |||||
| a. | Diurnal cycle of the planetary boundary layer and convective cloud systems over land | |||||
| b. | Coastal and island effects | |||||
| 1. | Convection initiated over tropical islands in the maritime continent | |||||
| 2. | Maritime Continent Thunderstorm Experiment (MCTEX) | |||||
| 3. | Effect of shear on convection initiation | |||||
| c. | Using bulk formulae for flux estimation over land | |||||
| d. | Ozone deposition velocity | |||||
| e. | Nocturnal transport of carbon dioxide | |||||
| f. | Southern Great Plains Experiment - 1997 | |||||
| g. | Direct numerical simulation of turbulent flow over a wavy surface | |||||
| h. | CASES-97 | |||||
| i. | Air-sea interactions over the coastal shoaling zone | |||||
| C. | Microphysics, Radiation, and Cloud Systems | |||||
| a. | Basic cloud physics | |||||
| b. | Cirrus clouds | |||||
| D. | Parameterization | |||||
| a. | Boundary layer parameterizations in the CSM | |||||
| b. | Cloud-resolving convection parameterization (CRCP) | |||||
| c. | Momentum transport by convection in cold air outbreaks | |||||
| d. | A hierarchical approach to parameterizing organized convection | |||||
| . | ||||||
| III. | SMALLER RESEARCH PROGRAMS IN MESOSCALE AND MICROSCALE METEOROLOGY | |||||
| A. | Ice Microphysics Research | |||||
| a. | Development of physically based ice parameterization | |||||
| b. | Ice hydrate studies | |||||
| c. | Ice Microphysics Initiative | |||||
| d. | TRMM ground validation projects | |||||
| B. | Wildfire Research | |||||
| a. | Numerical experiments | |||||
| 1. | Fire behavior | |||||
| b. | Infrared imagery analysis | |||||
| c. | Instrument development | |||||
| C. | Geophysical Turbulence Research | |||||
| a. | Entrainment in clear convective planetary layers | |||||
| b. | Entrainment in strongly capped PBLs: Sensitivity to resolution and sub-grid scale turbulence parameterization | |||||
| c. | Stably stratified PBL studies | |||||
| d. | Lagrangian modeling of one- and two-particle dispersion using LES | |||||
| e. | DNS turbulence studies | |||||
| f. | LES turbulence studies | |||||
| g. | Vortex tubes | |||||
| h. | Gravity wave turbulence | |||||
| 1. | Two-layer stratified flows past the Alps | |||||
| 2. | Gravity wave breaking in the middle atmosphere | |||||
| 3. | Intercomparison of model predicted wave breaking | |||||
| D. | Chemistry, Aerosols, and Dynamics Interactions Research | |||||
| a. | LES and chemistry | |||||
| b. | Coupled chemistry/MM5 modeling | |||||
| c. | Effects of deep convection on tropospheric chemistry - STERAO | |||||
| 1. | Lightning evolution and relationship to storm structure | |||||
| 2. | Storm simulations | |||||
| 3. | Observed spikes of NO and lightning source strengths | |||||
| 4. | Effects of aqueous chemistry | |||||
| 5. | Photolysis rates in the storms | |||||
| d. | Tropospheric aerosol studies | |||||
| . | ||||||
| IV. | OTHER RESEARCH RELATED TO MESOSCALE AND MICROSCALE METEOROLOGY | |||||
| A. | Warm Cloud Studies | |||||
| a. | Early echo development | |||||
| b. | Extent of adiabatic regions | |||||
| c. | Influence of ultra-giant nuclei | |||||
| B. | Coastal Meteorology | |||||
| a. | Coastally trapped disturbances | |||||
| b. | The Catalina eddy | |||||
| c. | Fog modeling | |||||
| C. | Baroclinic Waves | |||||
| a. | Topographic effects | |||||
| b. | Higher-order corrections to quasi-geostrophic theory | |||||
| D. | Measurement Techniques | |||||
| a. | Measuring entrainment, divergence, and vorticity | |||||
| b. | Using lidar measurements for probing the PBL | |||||
| c. | Calibration of radars using LES flow fields | |||||
| E. | Model Development | |||||
| a. | Forward-in-time differencing for a shallow fluid on the sphere | |||||
| b. | Compatible momentum transport | |||||
| c. | High performance computing for atmospheric flows | |||||
| d. | MPDATA: A finite-difference algorithm of geophysical flows | |||||
| . | ||||||
| V. | DIVISION COMMUNITY SERVICE AND EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES | |||||
| A. | Community Services | |||||
| a. | Community models | |||||
| 1. | New Developments in MM5 Pre-Processing Programs | |||||
| 2. | New Land-Surface Model for MM5 | |||||
| 3. | DMP Version of MM5 | |||||
| 4. | User Support | |||||
| b. | Data Analysis Software Support | |||||
| c. | Visitor Program | |||||
| d. | Collaborative Visits to Universities | |||||
| e. | Workshops and Colloquia | |||||
| f. | Field Campaigns | |||||
| g. | USWRP Office of the Lead Scientist | |||||
| h. | Staff Contributions | |||||
| 1. | Editorships of Peer-Reviewed Journals | |||||
| 2. | External Scientific, Policy or Educational Committees or Advisory Panels | |||||
| 3. | Honors and Awards | |||||
| B. | Educational Activities | |||||
| a. | Collaboration with Colleges & Universities | |||||
| 1. | Teaching Arrangements | |||||
| 2. | Graduate Research Advisors | |||||
| 3. | Thesis Committee Members | |||||
| b. | Participation in UCAR/NCAR/UOP Programs | |||||
| 1. | Project LEARN (Laboratory Experience in Atmospheric Research) | |||||
| 2. | SOARS (Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science) | |||||
| 3. | COMET (Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training) | |||||
| c. | Non-Technical and Educational Outreach | |||||
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| VI. | DIVISION COMPUTING AND ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES | |||||
| A. | Division Computing | |||||
| B. | Administrative Services | |||||
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| VII. | PUBLICATIONS | |||||
| A. | Refereed | |||||
| B. | Non-refereed | |||||
| . | ||||||
| VIII. | STAFF, VISITORS AND COLLABORATORS | |||||
| A. | MMM Staff, FY 1998 | |||||
| B. | MMM Visitors and Collaborators, FY 1998 | |||||
| Table of Contents | Director's Message |
| Significant Accomplishments | FY 98 Publications |
| Community and Educational Activities | Staff, Vistors & Collaborators |