MMM SEMINAR NCAR
Numerical
Analysis and Prediction of Thunderstorms
David C. Dowell
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
In a 1990 paper, Doug Lilly asked the question “Numerical prediction of thunderstorms – has its time come?” Dr. Lilly described the components of a prediction system, identified major scientific challenges, and suggested areas for research during the following decade. It is interesting to read this paper again fifteen years later, now that numerical models that explicitly predict individual convective storms are running in real time in demonstration projects at NCAR, CAPS, and elsewhere. In the first part of my presentation, I will review Dr. Lilly’s paper and comment on the scientific challenges that remain today. Then, I’ll discuss results from current projects in which I’m involved that are attempting to address some of these challenges. Finally, I’ll describe VORTEX2, a field project to study tornadic storms and their environments proposed for 2008-9. Both the field phase and the subsequent research phase would provide an outstanding opportunity to assess the practical predictability limits of convective storms for state-of-the-art numerical models initialized with state-of-the-art observations.
Refreshments 8:45 AM
NCAR-Foothills Laboratory
Bldg 2 Auditorium (Rm1022)