We are at an exciting time in the science of mesoscale and microscale meteorology. Societal use of and demand for mesoscale and microscale atmospheric and related predictions is growing rapidly, and expanding into areas such as air quality and homeland security. Major progress has also occurred during the past decade in observing capacity at these scales, in the ability of computers to handle complex models at very fine grid scales over large domains, and in the theoretical understanding of related processes. These have enabled more accurate specification of mesoscale and microscale atmospheric, biological and chemical processes in models of the weather and climate.
MMM will continue to strive to address fundamental scientific themes in mesoscale
and microscale meteorology; our emphasis is on themes likely to benefit society
through improved understanding of atmospheric processes and advances in the
science of atmospheric prediction. Our Science Plan reflects these broad
goals and outlines what the Division intends to accomplish during the next
five years.
In arriving at these plans, we have been mindful of building on our expertise
and strengths, of our past investment in developing advanced observing and
modeling systems, of societal needs and benefits, and of the current budgetary
environment, which is projected to be at best stable. With the recent reorganization
of NCAR, MMM now sits within the Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory (ESSL),
which we see as providing new opportunities for collaboration on major projects.
Our research in mesoscale and microscale meteorology spans a broad spectrum
and this is reflected by the diverse research interests within the Division.
For example, MMM scientists have research projects ranging through the mechanics
of the freezing process of supercooled cloud droplets, the development and
application of an advanced satellite measurement systems, wildfire modeling,
advanced numerical methods in computational fluid mechanics, data assimilation,
precipitating convective systems, and theoretical models of meso and synoptic-scale
systems. Our scientific program reflects both this diversity of scientific
expertise and our commitment to community service.
To maintain this scientific program and respond quickly to new research opportunities
and societal needs, the scientific staff must retain and encourage this diverse
expertise. Therefore, a central aspect of our Science Plan is to attract
and retain leading scientists in the field and to develop the careers of
young scientists toward leadership roles. To achieve this goal, we will respect
scientific uniqueness and will promote collaboration and teamwork through
maintenance of a congenial, supportive, and professional working environment.
We recognize that additional expertise may be needed to fully implement our
plans and we shall be seeking to develop this expertise as a high priority,
especially by expansion of our current collaborations with other ESSL and
NCAR divisions and laboratories, the university community, government laboratories
and forecast centers, and international organizations. We will be particularly
active in maintaining and generating support for visits by external scientists
to NCAR and by MMM scientists to institutions with which we have substantial
collaborations (such as a number of universities, NOAA, NRL, NCEP and the
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, JCSDA).
MMM devotes resources to community service activities. This service is an
important part of our role as a national center, and it is one that also
enhances our scientific research. Past major service functions include the
maintenance of the community mesoscale numerical prediction model (MM5),
which has now been frozen and will no longer be developed. The WRF has taken
over as our new community model and will continue to be developed and maintained
as a global leader amongst mesoscale models. It will be complemented over
the next few years by advanced data assimilation functionality and by a nested
regional climate model based on the WRF system. The division also maintains
access to a suite of data analysis software packages. The support of a strong
and active divisional visitor program and MMM’s participation in ASP
post-doctoral program and SOARS has many benefits to the community and enables
MMM scientists to participate in the mentoring of the future leaders in our
field.
MMM has traditionally had a strong relationship the Earth Observing Laboratory
and we look forward to continuing this. We, along with the rest of NCAR,
are particularly excited by the arrival of the new HIAPER aircraft, which
has the endurance and altitude capacity to enable new observations relevant
to several of our planned activities.
One of the major external driving factors for weather research in the coming
decade is THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment)
program for which several MMM scientists have been active participants in
the planning stages. THORPEX is an international, long-term research program
under the WMO World Weather Research Program (WWRP), which has the ultimate
goal of accelerating the rate of improvement in accuracy of 1 to 14-day predictions
of high impact weather for the benefit of society, the environment and the
economy. The research areas of THORPEX include data assimilation, predictability
and dynamical processes, observing systems and societal applications. These
are very closely aligned with MMM initiatives and we plan close collaboration
with THORPEX in our future activities.
By way of a couple of examples of the types of major national and international
activities that MMM is involved with, we mention the Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model and the COSMIC GPS remote sensing system.
MMM is committed to community outreach and we are proud of the achievements
of the WRF model in this regard. WRF was developed by MMM and a multi-agency
partnership under the US Weather Research Program (USWRP). It has demonstrated
impressive improvement in the analysis and forecasting of high impact weather
systems, including: continental convective outbreaks, long-lived mesoscale
convective complexes, and tropical cyclones approaching landfall. WRF has
been adopted as a basis of prediction systems at the NOAA National Center
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA),
and foreign meteorological services in Taiwan and Korea. The WRF Community
Model now has over 2500 registered users and has replaced MM5 as the mesoscale
model that MMM maintains in support of university research. We also welcome
the establishment of the Developmental Test Center (DTC) in NCAR. This
provides an excellent opportunity for close collaboration on the transfer
of new research
findings and ideas from the research WRF into the operational systems.
The Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation was developed
for precise navigation and positioning. In the past decade, MMM has collaborated
with several national and international groups in the development of innovative
techniques that can make use of signals transmitted from the GPS for atmospheric
remote sensing. The resulting atmospheric data are expected to have a major
impact on climate monitoring, global and regional weather prediction, ionospheric
research, and space weather forecasting. We look forward to utilizing these
data in our future research efforts.
The following sections give a more detailed account of our objectives and
goals in these areas and how we plan to achieve them. Each of the areas
of emphasis is of fundamental scientific interest, and also addresses an
important
societal need. Although the societal demand for and potential socioeconomic
benefits of each research area are not discussed in detail, the societal
applications of the results provide an underlying motivation for the research.
The improved understanding and predictions developed through MMM’s
research are therefore expected to benefit society in numerous ways --
through decreased loss of life, injuries, and property damage; improved
economic
efficiency; more effective environmental decision making; and enhanced
public safety and welfare.
Next section: IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF EARTH-SYSTEM PROCESSES