(Example - This was a real forecast)
Conditions over the STEPS domain are quite dry and stable this morning,
but an upper-level disturbance is approaching from the west, and it is
expected that moderate-to-strong south-to-southeasterly winds will
become established over the region by early afternoon. This will begin
to advect mid-40's to low 50's dew points back into the STEPS domain, perhaps
as early as late afternoon or evening, increasing the potential for some
weak-to-moderate convection this evening. Shear magnitudes will be in the
weak-to-moderate range by evening, offering only a slight chance for
supercellular activity today.
Tomorrow, the upper-level disturbance continues to approach, with a cyclone forecast to develop over eastern Colorado during the day. A dry line will be expected to develop extending south of the cyclone center. Widespread moderate-to-strong convection will be expected east of this dry line position, with moderate shears holding out the possibility for supercellular activity.
Cold front is expected to move through the STEPS domain Saturday night, with showers or steady rain likely on Sunday, but no significant convection expected.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Storm Type | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Triggering | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Intuition | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Simulated - Up except aircraft and mobile unit coordinator displays |
| CHILL | Simulated - All systems up |
| S-Pol | Simulated - All systems up, having some problems with T1 line to Burlington |
| LMA | Not yet operational |
| MGLASS | Simulated - Up, expect first soundings at 1200Z |
| T-28 | Not yet operational |
| Storm ballooning | Not yet operational |
| Mobile Mesonet | Simulated - only one vehicle available |
| YRFS | All systems up |
| NWS | All systems up |
(Simulated example of expectations - No real operations)
The best information available at the morning briefing indicates a
relatively low probability of convection today, with an increasing
probability toward tomorrow. Since no more will be known about the weather
until late this afternoon, and if convection does develop it will likely
be even later rather than earlier,
we are declaring all systems down for
the day. Fairly significant convection is expected starting about
mid-afternoon tomorrow.
The next operational day and weather briefing
will be at 9am MDT on the 29th.
(Example - No operations were actually conducted)
The last major system that passed through the area was associated with the
passage of a cold front. This strongly-forced storm was oriented more or
less north-south and produced ~1-1.5 inch hail in southwest Nebraska.
The NWS issued a severe storm watch around 1700Z (11am MDT) when the
line storm had reached reflectivities in excess of 60 dBZ and was accompanied
by strong surface winds and heavy rain. The line storm
passed through the primary region of radar coverage from 1900-2400Z (1-6pm)
on the 24th. The two research radars concentrated their sector scans on the
southern part of the line where the most intense echoes occurred. No other
research instruments were operational.