STEPS OPERATIONS JOURNAL

    Date: April 28, 2000
    Operations Director: L. Jay Miller


WEATHER FORECAST:
    Date: April 28, 2000
    Forecaster: Morris Weisman

(Example - This was a real forecast)
Conditions over the STEPS domain are quite dry and stable this morning, but an upper-level disturbance is approaching from the west, and it is expected that moderate-to-strong south-to-southeasterly winds will become established over the region by early afternoon. This will begin to advect mid-40's to low 50's dew points back into the STEPS domain, perhaps as early as late afternoon or evening, increasing the potential for some weak-to-moderate convection this evening. Shear magnitudes will be in the weak-to-moderate range by evening, offering only a slight chance for supercellular activity today.

Tomorrow, the upper-level disturbance continues to approach, with a cyclone forecast to develop over eastern Colorado during the day. A dry line will be expected to develop extending south of the cyclone center. Widespread moderate-to-strong convection will be expected east of this dry line position, with moderate shears holding out the possibility for supercellular activity.

Cold front is expected to move through the STEPS domain Saturday night, with showers or steady rain likely on Sunday, but no significant convection expected.

FORECAST MATRIX

VARIABLE Day 1: 1-4 pm Day 1: 4-9 pm Day 2 Day 3
Convective
Potential
01 30
Storm Type 11 22
Triggering 01 31
Intuition 01 10
Total 14 93


EQUIPMENT STATUS:

SYSTEM STATUS
Ops Center Simulated - Up except aircraft and mobile unit coordinator displays
CHILL Simulated - All systems up
S-Pol Simulated - All systems up, having some problems with T1 line to Burlington
LMA Not yet operational
MGLASS Simulated - Up, expect first soundings at 1200Z
T-28 Not yet operational
Storm ballooning Not yet operational
Mobile Mesonet Simulated - only one vehicle available
YRFS All systems up
NWS All systems up


EXPECTED OPERATIONS FOR 0428:

(Simulated example of expectations - No real operations)
The best information available at the morning briefing indicates a relatively low probability of convection today, with an increasing probability toward tomorrow. Since no more will be known about the weather until late this afternoon, and if convection does develop it will likely be even later rather than earlier, we are declaring all systems down for the day. Fairly significant convection is expected starting about mid-afternoon tomorrow. The next operational day and weather briefing will be at 9am MDT on the 29th.


DEBRIEFING OF OPERATIONS FOR 0424:

[Radar images]

(Example - No operations were actually conducted)
The last major system that passed through the area was associated with the passage of a cold front. This strongly-forced storm was oriented more or less north-south and produced ~1-1.5 inch hail in southwest Nebraska. The NWS issued a severe storm watch around 1700Z (11am MDT) when the line storm had reached reflectivities in excess of 60 dBZ and was accompanied by strong surface winds and heavy rain. The line storm passed through the primary region of radar coverage from 1900-2400Z (1-6pm) on the 24th. The two research radars concentrated their sector scans on the southern part of the line where the most intense echoes occurred. No other research instruments were operational.