Forecasters:Sven Nelaimischkies (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR)
Hot and dry today, with little convective activity expected, except possibly along the eastern border of the STEPS domain, where a weak surface boundary with mid-50s dewpoints behind it may produce enough lifting and CAPE for some weak convection this evening.
High pressure building down from the northwest tonight will begin to turn the flow southeasterly along the front range of Colorado tomorrow, advecting low-level moisture into the western portions of the STEPS domain by tomorrow afternoon. Convection should trigger along the front range tomorrow afternoon, with some of the convection propagating eastward into the western portions of the STEPS domain late tomorrow afternoon or evening. Convection should be of a weak-to-moderate strength.
SE surface flow will continue Wednesday night and Thursday, significantly increasing surface dew points and convective potential over the STEPS domain on Thursday. Southeasterly surface winds at the surface along with moderate westerly winds aloft will also increase the potential for supercellular convection. This will lead to a significant chance of severe convection over the STEPS domain.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Triggering | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Intuition | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 1 | 2.5 | 5 | 7 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational except for intermittency in T1 connection to the outside world from Ops. The #2 repeater (radar-to-radar) is operational and will be used by the mobiles until #1 repeater is up. |
| CHILL | Fully operational. |
| S-Pol | Coherency was restored after repairs to the STALO. They'll spend time today working on the COHO to make SPol fully operational in anticipation of improving conditions Wednesday into Thursday. The T1 connection to S-Pol is partially operational, but pinging the CHILL subnet was very slow. |
| LMA | Overheating problems are being addressed and all 13 sites are expected to be operational later today. |
| MGLASS | Operational except for getting soundings to ATD site. Their cell phone of the more powerful type (sometimes called a bag phone) may be defective. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. Continuing with crew training. |
| Mobile mesonet | Three vehicles are operational, some programming still required on the other three. |
| Storm chase van | Operational except that the GPS doesn't work. We will have to depend on positioning information via voice communication with the mobile mesonet vehicle that they will be accompanying. |
| YRFS | Operational |
| NWS | Operational |
We are declaring the day down as far as any coordinated operations. The Ops center will be staffed and in a position to offer assistance for any equipment testing.
No operations were conducted. All observing systems continued with preparatory work.