Forecasters: Vincent (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR)
Increasing SE surface winds, advecting higher surface dew points into the region, along with an upper level disturbance moving into the region from the west will enhance the thermodynamic instability as the day goes on, icreasing the potential for significant convection over the STEPS domain by late afternoon and evening. Shear values will be strong enough for supercell activity if isolated cells develop. Best chances for convection will be within the western and southern portions of the steps domain.
Outlook for Thursday and Friday is for increasing instability, good vertical wind shear, and a significant chance for severe convection each day over the STEPS domain.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
1 | 1.5 | 2 | 3 |
| Storm Type | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Triggering | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Intuition | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 4.5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. We will use repeater #2 for coordinating radars and mobiles. Repeater #1 (normally the mobile ground-to-ground) will likely be operational late today or tomorrow. |
| CHILL | Fully operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational except for T1 line. |
| LMA | Status is unknown, expectation from yesterday was that all 13 sites would be operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational, soundings now available from the NCAR/RAP web page. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. |
| Mobile mesonet | Four vehicles are operational, preparation work continuing on the remaining two. |
| Storm chase van | Operational except that the GPS doesn't work, will tag along with mobile units. With only four mobile units available, the mobile mesonet will not have a vehicle dedicated to the storm core. That will be done only after all six vehicles are available. |
| YRFS | Operational |
| NWS | Operational |
Expected operations are to standby for full coordinated operations of all available observing systems, starting at 12pm MDT. The likely region of interest will be to the west and southwest. MGLASS soundings will be done at Goodland and Flagler at 18, 21, and 24Z (12, 15, and 18MDT). Mobiles and ballooning standing by at Goodland for later update and decisions on region of interest. Once the region is selected, the mobile mesonet, ballooning, and storm chase van will be dispatched.
The first attempt at coordinated operations revealed some issues regarding coordinating the radar scans. These were discussed and some new approaches were decided upon. Generally, the Ops center will alert SPol to the likely target area and suggest some broad azimuth bounds. Both CHILL and SPol will immediately go into a loose sector and RHI mode to determine the needed parameters to define the scans. This allows both radars to go through the storm and get a good idea of what the basic structure of the storm region is. This first pass through is expected to take about five minutes. At the completion of this the radar scientists define the scans, with the lead coming from the Ops center. Once this is done, then the radars are synchronized and the defined scan sequence is started.
There were some communications problems that arose and were worked through at the morning meeting. Better definition of standing by was decided so that the mobile units would be prepared. Basically, we would call a time for standing by which means that at that time the mobiles should be ready to be dispatched. However, updates will be done before this time in order to address the possibility of dispathing the mobiles some before the actual standby time.