Forecasters: Vincent (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR)
FORECAST UNAVAILABLE DUE TO NETWORK PROBLEMS - WILL BE POSTED TOMORROW
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Triggering | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Intuition | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 5 | 7.5 | 8 | 4 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. We will use repeater #2 for coordinating radars, with telephones as a backup. Repeater #1 (normally the mobile ground-to-ground) is not yet operational. Will use telephones to coordinate mobiles. |
| CHILL | Fully operational. |
| S-Pol | Fully operational. |
| LMA | Fully operational with on-site recording. Some interference on TV channel 3 from some distanct broadcast station. Work will continue on wireless internet for real-time analysis at Goodland base station. |
| MGLASS | Operational, soundings now available from the NCAR/RAP web page. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. |
| Mobile mesonet | Four vehicles are operational, preparation work continuing on the remaining two. |
| Storm chase van | Operational except that the GPS doesn't work, will tag along with mobile units. With only four mobile units available, the mobile mesonet will not have a vehicle dedicated to the storm core. That will be done only after all six vehicles are available. |
| YRFS | Operational |
| NWS | Operational |
We will have the Ops Center and SPol fully staffed and operating by 12am MDT. The mobiles will standby for a 1pm update. Severe storms are likely along the front range which will advect into the STEPS domain by late afternoon. We are on alert to fully coordinated operations on severe storms.
Series of storms oriented NE-SW advected w --> e across the STEPS domain. We did coordinated scans first on the northern complex of 3-5 cells in the western CHILL-SPOL lobes, then the second one farther south as it advected across the southern half of the western lobe. From polarimetric, we estimated this cell contained 6-10 mm graupel (low density) particles that melted to rain reaching the ground. Unfortunately, these cells decayed when they were within about 40 km west of CHILL. RHIs suggest that updrafts were likely rooted into the top of the convective boundary layer. Therefore, they never reached into the hight dew point air (Td ~ 50-55). Mobiles were positioned well at Stratton east of the storm of interest. The T-28 missed the core since it had decayed to a fairly small horizontal cross-section.
The severest weather was farther south with 1-1/2 inch hail south of Limon and late evening flooding and high winds (60 mph) in west central Kansas.
Addendum to 0525:
The STEPS domain is defined roughly as the region within 150 km of both research radars. This area is also covered reasonably well with the LMA centered near the center of the triple-Doppler (CHILL-SPOL-KGLD) network.
The first electrical balloon sounding will normally be done into the anvil, taking about 30-45 min to complete. Subsequent soundings will be in the inflow, taking about 15 min to complete. Ideally, the inflow sounding would correspond with a T-28 penetration; however, this would be very difficult so that if the T-28 strives to make a penetration within +/- 15 min of the launch time of the balloon this would be satisfactory.