Forecasters: Randy (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR)
A shallow cold front has propagated south through the STEPS domain this morning, bringing low-level cloudiness over much of the region along with an increase in surface dew points to the low-to-mid 50's. The low-level cooling has resulted in a very stable air mass over the region this morning. The high pressure to our north this morning is expected to move eastward during the day. In response, the surface winds are expected to gradually shift from northerly to easterly as the day goes on. The low clouds are also expected to break-up during the day, helping to destabilize the air mass by evening, especially along the higher terrain to the west and northwest. Convection may trigger along the front range and Cheyenne Ridge late this afternoon, with a chance of some significant convection moving into the western portions of the STEPS domain this evening. Strong shear aloft will support the possibility of supercells if convection does develop.
The forecast for tomorrow and thursday is for enhancing instability and an increased chance of significant convection.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Triggering | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Intuition | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. When needed both repeaters #1 and #2 will be devoted to mobile units, and the radars will use the regular telephones. |
| CHILL | Fully operational. |
| S-Pol | Fully operational. |
| LMA | Lightning mapper is operational with exception of slow antenna network, which is being installed. Expected to be operational in one week to 10 days. |
| MGLASS | Operational, but soundings are not always available from the NCAR/RAP web page. |
| T-28 | Operational. Test flight successful. Now have no backup generator. |
| Storm ballooning | NSSL EFM has generator problems and they are working to get it fixed. Not operational. |
| Mobile mesonet | Only have two operational vehicles. One has vehicle problems and the other three have meteorological equipment problems. |
| Storm chase van | Operational. |
| YRFS | Operational |
| NWS | Operational |
Based on forecast which suggests the possibility of late day storms approaching from the west, we will have CSU-CHILL and S-pol begin surveillance at noon. Will take 18Z soundings at Goodland and Flagler to monitor expected modification of post frontal air mass. T-28 will be on loose standby by. Equipment maintenance will have priority today, since we expect to be fairly active tomorrow and Thursday.