Forecasters: ? (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR)
Cool, dry and stable conditions exist over the STEPS domain this morning. Strong south-to-southeasterly flow is forecast over eastern Colorado today, which will increase surface dew points to 45-50 F over the front range by late today, with 40-45 F along the Colorado-Kansas border. This will increase the chances of thundershowers breaking out along the front range by late afternoon or evening, especially south of Denver. There is little chance, however, of significant convection reaching into the STEPS research area.
Continued moisture return overnight along with a weak wave and surface front approaching from the NW increases convective potential somewhat for Saturday and Sunday.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
0.5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Triggering | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Intuition | -1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 1.5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. When needed both repeaters #1 and #2 will be devoted to mobile units, and the radars will use the regular telephones. |
| CHILL | Fully operational. |
| S-Pol | Fully operational. |
| LMA | Lightning mapper is operational with exception of slow antenna network, which is being installed. Expected to be operational in one week to 10 days. Work will continue on connecting via wireless modem all stations to the central site in Goodland. |
| MGLASS | Operational. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. |
| Mobile mesonet | Fully operational (?). |
| Storm chase van | Operational. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
Extremely poor conditions exist today for convection over the STEPS domain. However, we will bring up the radars by 1 PM in case any boundary layer Q develop. T-28 and EFM will check with Ops around 1:30 to 2 PM, but we expect these facilities to stand down today. Mesonet will go west to study a well- developed Denver cyclone. STEPS will offer two soundings to support this operation, at 18Z and either 21/24Z.
Operational issues:
The flight time of the T-28 should nominally be planned at 1 hour 40 minutes. This is the total elapsed time from wheels up to wheels down, not including a mandatory 45 minute reserve. This flight time distills to working basically one storm per mission.
No operations were conducted outside of mobile mesonet work near Denver to study Denver cyclone (one sounding was released at Genoa at 18Z). The reduced reflectivity at CHILL relative to S-pol has been resolved.