Forecasters: ? (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR)
A cool, stable airmass remains in place over the STEPS region this morning. The associated high pressure center is forecast to shift eastward during the day, with strong southerly flow becoming established by early afternoon. This southerly flow will begin to advect significant low-level moisture back into the region, first along the front range by late today, and over the entire STEPS region by tomorrow morning. Also, a Denver cyclone has set up near the front range, and is expected to intensify today as the southerly surface flow increases. Convection is expected to develop along the front range today, but no significant convection is expected within the STEPS research region.
On Tuesday, a weak upper-level disturbance propagating from the west is expected to produce a dry line/ lee trough in eastern Colorado by afternoon. With continued moisture return overnight, the airmass east of this dry line feature may develop significant instability by afternoon, offering the possibility for isolated storms within the STEPS domain by late afternoon. Shear values will be marginal for supercells on Tuesday, but an LP storm can not be ruled out.
The dry line remains in place over western Kansas on Wednesday, but warming aloft and weakening shear may reduce the chances of significant convection.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
0 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Triggering | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Intuition | -1 | -0.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 4 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. When needed both repeaters #1 and #2 will be devoted to mobile units, and the radars will use the regular telephones. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Working on technical problems. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | The NSSL5 van has been sent to Boulder for generator repair and to try recovering files from Saturday. |
| Mobile mesonet | Operational. One mobile mesonet has been sent back to Norman for repair, and is expected back by the end of the week. |
| Storm chase van | Operational. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
STEPS operations are called down for today, except for continuing to address various equipment concerns. CHILL reports that they have adjusted their radar constant upwards by 5.5 dB as of Saturday 6/3/00. They are also working to stabilize ZDR calibration, which is drifting during the day. The mobile mesonets will be heading west today for Denver Cyclone studies, but will not need STEPS support. Current MGLASS inventory has 88 sondes remaining for the experiment. A request was made to update the frequency list for radio communications.
The day was declared down; no operations were conducted.