Forecasters: Sven (NWS) and Gilmore (NSSL/CIMMS)
Hot, dry and stable conditions remain in place over the STEPS domain today. No convection is expected.
A deep upper-level disturbance continues to progress eastward onto the west coast and into the intermountain region. This system is forecast to begin impacting the STEPS region on Friday, with precipitation being predicted by most of the models by late Friday afternoon. These models are also predicting a significant increase in CAPE values, as low-level moisture returns in conjunction with mid- and upper-level cooling. This may lead to the generation of strong-to severe convection. However, shear values are forecast to remain weak through tomorrow, so supercellular convection is not expected as of now.
The cooler, more unstable airmass remains in place over eastern Colorado and western Kansas on Saturday, with a significant trough/dry line also set up near the Colorado-Kansas border. Thus, there is a good chance of significant convection on Saturday as well.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
- | - | - | - |
| Storm Type | - | - | - | - |
| Triggering | - | - | - | - |
| Intuition | - | - | - | - |
| Total | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. When needed both repeaters #1 and #2 will be devoted to mobile units, and the radars will use the regular telephones. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | The NSSL5 van is expected to return from Boulder by mid-to-late afternoon. |
| Mobile mesonet | Operational. |
| Storm chase van | Operational. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
STEPS operations have been called down for today.
No operations were conducted.
Addendum: As part of the morning debriefing, STEPS investigators summarized observations to date, noting especially that several of the observed storms, albeit weak and high based, have exhibited very interesting electric field and lightning characteristics, with reverse polarity (negative within the anvil and positive below) in at least two of the cases. This observation matches some recent observations from the Oklahoma region, but is counter to the established conceptual model of electric field distribution in most convective storms.