Forecasters: Michael (NWS) and Weisman (NCAR/MMM)
A cold front has proceeded east of the STEPS domain this morning, with surface dew points in the 30's and low 40's. However, dew points in the 50's and 60's remain close by to our south and east, and are forecast to move back into the region in association with a warm front, starting this evening. There is little chance of convection early, but convection may develop by mid-evening as the warm front approaches from the south. Vertical wind shears are insufficient for supercellular development today.
Tomorrow (SUNDAY), low-level moisture will be back in place over the STEPS domain, with a relatively well formed warm front forecast to be positioned east-west across the northern portions of the domain. Convection, possibly severe, is likely along this warm frontal feature. Shears north of the warm front may also reach minimal thresholds for supercellular activity.
For Monday, the unstable air mass remains in place over the region, with a continued chance for significant convection.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
0 | 1.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Storm Type | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Triggering | 0 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| Intuition | -0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. |
| Mobile mesonet | Operational. |
| Storm chase van | Operational. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
Radars, ballooning units and T28 will be on standby as of 3:00 pm. Mobile Mesonets will be down. An MGLASS sounding will be taken at Goodland at 00Z. All of this is in anticipation of possible convection this evening with the returning moisture and warm front.
No operations were conducted. Moisture did not return to area and no storms developed.