Forecasters: Sven Nelaimischkies (NWS/GLD) and Bruce Entwistle (NWS/GLD)

A strong cold front (north and northwest winds gusting to 20 m/s) will move through the research domain this afternoon while the nose of an unseasonably strong jet moves south toward the southern plains. Despite the strong dynamics, however, moisture is inadequate for convection along the cold front and its associated prefrontal trough this afternoon and evening.

Post-frontal elevated convection is possible after 8 pm as mid-level moisture of Pacific origin arrives and dynamics remain favorable for lift.

On Friday the region will have an anticyclone centered over it with winds gradually veering to the southeast. The cold front will block any moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, leaving the research domain too dry for convection. Cold core showers are possible during the time of maximum heating.

Saturday holds some interest as low level moisture returns along the Colorado/Kansas border. Upper level dynamics are expected to still favor lift for thunderstorms, but we'll have to see if convection develops early in the day in the Texas panhandle. If convection remains suppressed in the panhandle, the synoptic situation favors convection developing in the higher terrain along the Cheyenne and Palmer ridges and moving into the research area; otherwise, convection will likely move through only the northern portion of the domain.

Although there is ample shear to support afternoon severe convection (hence the modestly high total in the forecast matrix), there is no way to develop convection of any kind. Therefore, the day has been declared down. The next briefing will be on Friday, June 16.

Down day, no operations.