Forecasters: David Thede (NWS/GLD) and Bruce Entwistle (NWS/GLD)

The strong cold front that moved through the region yesterday has swept the deep moisture well off to the southeast. There will be sufficient dynamics with the jet axis over southern Nebraska to generate weak convective showers under the colder mid-level temperatures, but thunderstorms are not expected.

Saturday is not quite as certain from a model standpoint, with quite a change occurring between the 00Z and 12Z runs today.

One scenario, favored by the AVN, places a low level ridge axis across Kansas with zonal flow across the Rockies. Some low- to mid-level moisture return is forecast to return over eastern Colorado, and thunderstorm development is possible late in the day should enough breaks in the low level stratus occur and allow the airmass to warm rapidly to convective temperature. This may be "wishcasting."

The other scenario, favored by the Eta, keeps the region under a cool, moist, and precipitating airmass all day and has the cool air mass dammed against the Front Range with maximum temperatures remaining below 60F.

Sunday looks to have a deepening lee trough with a dry line extending through eastern Colorado. The shear associated with the nearby jet axis of Wednesday through Saturday will weaken considerably, but 0 to 6 km hodograph lengths of 55 kts (~28 m/s) are still possible with south to southeast winds of 20 to 25 kts east of the dry line veering to west around 25 kt. Thunderstorm initiation is possible west of the research domain if the cool air dammed against the Front Range can be pushed or drained toward the Colorado/Kansas border.

Although there is ample shear to support afternoon severe convection (hence the modestly high total in the forecast matrix), there is no way to develop convection of any kind. Therefore, the day has been declared down. The next briefing will be on Saturday, June 17.

Down day, no operations.