Forecasters: Vincent (NWS/GLD) and Bruce Entwistle (NWS/GLD)

Cool and rainy conditions are in place over the STEPS domain today. There is some chance of embedded convection within the predominantly stratiform precipitation, but no significant convection is expected.

For Sunday, surface temperatures and dew points are forecast to increase, setting up the possibility for weak-to-moderate convection by late in the day. The possibility of convection will also be enhanced by a weak upper-level disturbance that is forecast to approach the region from the southwest during the afternoon. Vertical wind shear values will be sufficient for supercellular activity, although the projected low CAPE magnitudes may preclude the development of severe storms.

For Monday, a fairly strong upper-level disturbance and surface cold front will be approaching from the northwest, with a surface dry line forecast to be positioned over or just east of the STEPS domain. Severe storms, possibly supercellular, will be likely east of this dry line position, but it is uncertain at this time whether this activity will be within range for STEPS operations.

The cool and rainy conditions over the STEPS domain today preclude the development of any significant convection. Therefore, the day has been declared down. The next briefing will be on Sunday, June 18.

Down day, no operations.