Forecasters: Vincent (NWS/GLD) and Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM)

A weak upper level disturbance along with a weak dry line in the STEPS vicinity and some marginal CAPE is expected to produce weak convection over the STEPS domain by mid- to late afternoon. Shear values may be sufficient for supercellular processes, but the minimal CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg being forecast will preclude the development of severe convection.

For Monday, continued return of low-level moisture along with a moderately strong upper-level wave and surface cold front approaching from the northwest will enhance the chances of severe convection over the STEPS region significantly. A well formed dry line is also forecast to be in place, with the best chances for severe convection being along and just east of the dry line position. The forecast position of the dry line is still uncertain, and may be located along the eastern fringes of the STEPS domain. Shear values are expected to be sufficient for supercellular activity.

The surface cold front passes through the region Monday night, producing cooling and drying, resulting in little chance of significant convection within the STEPS domain on Tuesday.

There is a remote chance of some weak convection so we will maintain visual observations from the radar sites along with looking for any low-level boundaries on the Goodland radar. The rest of the project will be in loose standby with updates around 1-2pm. We will set up for a possible 21Z sounding at Goodland. If any convection develops, it will likely be over with by around 4-5pm and will be hard to chase.

No convection developed. Secured operations at 2000Z (1400MDT).