Forecasters: Randy (NWS/GLD) and Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM)
A cold front has passed to the southeast of the STEPS domain this morning. Some residual moisture along with a weak upper-level disturbance has produced some showers over northeastern Colorado, and may trigger some convection on the extreme southern or southwestern end of the STEPS region early-to-mid afternoon, but no significant convection is expected within the research domain.
For Wednesday, warm, dry and stable conditions will prevail, with little chance of significant convection.
For Thursday, low-level moisture will begin to return on southerly winds, and a weak upper-level disturbance will be approaching from the west. Significant convection may be possible by late in the day. The extended outlook continues the chance for significant convection on both Friday and Saturday.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Triggering | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Intuition | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Total | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 5 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational. |
| T-28 | Operational. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. |
| Mobile mesonet | Operational. |
| Storm chase van | Operational. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
STEPS operations have been called down for today (Tuesday) and tomorrow (Wednesday). A weather briefing is scheduled for Thursday morning at 9:00 am for possible activity late in the day. A weather update will be issued Wednesday morning by 10:00 am as to possible operations on Thursday. Operations are anticipated for Friday and Saturday.
The mobile mesonet teams have decided to return to Norman, and will only return if a period with supercell potential presents itself.
Down day, no operations.