Forecasters: Mike Skipper (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM)
Today:
Clear conditions cover the STEPS domain this morning, with surface dew points ranging from the low-to-mid 50's and variable surface winds. Deeper moisture is pooled along the front range, with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, with lapse rates becoming more stable to the east towards North Platte. The model progs have southeasterly surface flow developing over the region during the day, with mid-60s dewpoints currently in place as close as Garden City KS. A weak upper level wave is also proged to move from northwest to southeast across the domain by late today. CAPEs by late afternoon are expected to range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg, with shear values of 30-40 kts between the surface and 500 mb by late today, offering the possibility for isolated severe storms, some possibly having minimal supercell characteristics. Expected cell motions will be east to southeast at 10-15 kts.
Day 2:
For tomorrow (Saturday), moisture and instability will remain in place, and another upper-level disturbance is progged to move across the region. A dry line/lee trough is also forecast to set up over the domain, offering suffient triggering potential for some convection. However, shear values are expected to weaken, and supercell activity is not expected.
Day 3:
Moisture, instability, and a dry line/lee trough remains in place for Sunday, supporting the continued possibility for convective activity, but shear values will remain weak, and supercellular activity is not expected.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
1.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Storm Type | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Triggering | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Intuition | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Total | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational. Prior to any soundings today, there are 24 remaining sondes. |
| T-28 | Engine seized up during landing after yesterday's operations. The aircraft will not be available for the rest of the field campaign since the engine will need to be removed and rebuilt, along with the propellor. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational. There are 6 EFMs available. |
| Mobile mesonet | Three vehicles are available. This will be their last day of operations. |
| Storm chase van | Operational as the primary precipitation verification vehicle. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
Forecast is for late afternoon convection. Radars will begin standby operations at 1:00 pm, with mobile units beginning standby at 2:00 pm. Environmental soundings will be taken at Goodland KS and Flagler CO at 18Z.
The Flagler CO sounding at 18Z showed two upper-level inversions, indicating substantial subsidence over the area. No convection developed anywhere in eastern Colorado, western Kansas. Operations were declared down at 3:30pm MDT.