Forecasters: Bruce Entwistle (NWS) and Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM)
Today:
Hot and dry weather is expected today, with a slight chance of high based convection over the western portions of the STEPS domain mid-afternoon through early evening. Shears have weakened below thresholds for supercellular activity. No severe storms are expected, except for the possibility for strong downburst winds.
Days 2 and 3:
Generally hot and dry conditions are forecast for Friday , Saturday, and Sunday. High based convection is possible on all of these days, but shears and CAPEs will be weak and no supercellular or severe activity is expected.
| VARIABLE | Day 1: 1-4 pm | Day 1: 4-9 pm | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convective Potential |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Storm Type | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Triggering | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Intuition | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 4 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational. |
| T-28 | Engine failure, no longer available to the project. |
| Storm ballooning | Operational; should be able to fly 4 EFMs. |
| Mobile mesonet | Recalled to Norman, no longer available to the project. |
| Storm chase van | Operational as the primary precipitation verification vehicle, but no one is available to staff it. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
Radars will be on standby at noon. Electrical ballooning units will be updated at 2pm with possible deployment toward west or northwest portions of STEPS domain for high-based, ordinary convection along the dry line/lee trough in eastern Colorado. MGLASS will be taken at 18 UTC at Goodland.
No convection developed in the STEPS domain. Operations were secured at 4pm MDT. MGLASS soundings were not successfully downloaded.