Forecasters: Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM)
Today:
Hot and dry conditions continue with weak flow aloft. There is a disturbance progged to pass over the STEPS domain this afternoon which could produce some high-based convection across the northwest part of the domain.
Days 2 and 3:
Hot and dry conditions are expected Sunday with very little moisture return. A little wave is progged to pass through the area on Monday. This wave is likely to push the lee trough east of the STEPS domain, leaving us in fairly stable conditions with very little moisture.
Note: The 9am formal weather briefing and debriefing of the previous day's operations have been suspended. We will maintain a daily look at the weather, but no other briefings/debriefings will be conducted. The forecast matrix will no longer be posted.
| SYSTEM | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Ops Center | Operational. |
| CHILL | Operational. |
| S-Pol | Operational. |
| LMA | Operational. |
| MGLASS | Operational. |
| T-28 | Engine failure, no longer available to the project. |
| Storm ballooning | Departed for Norman OK, no longer available to the project. |
| Mobile mesonet | Recalled to Norman, no longer available to the project. |
| Storm chase van | Operational as the primary precipitation verification vehicle, but no one is available to staff it. |
| YRFS | Operational. |
| NWS | Operational. |
We will run the radars in the following mode from now until the end of STEPS. Each day the radars will be up about noon for the possibility of scattered convection that would be workable by Charlie Knight. It is anticipated that strong ridging and weak flow aloft will keep the likelihood of any severe convection at a minimum. In the event that some organized convection should develop, we will conduct coordinated dual-Doppler scans. These radar efforts will also support any LMA operations. MGLASS soundings might be taken at Goodland at 18Z, but no others are anticipated.
Lots of fair-weather Cu developed in the area, but nothing of any significance except one cell NE of Colby KS. All convection was high-based. The NWS did issue a severe storm warning on the cell NE of Colby since it reached 60 dBZ and was expected to produce a downburst with significant winds when it collapsed. No radar data was taken except for Charlie Knight's young cloud studies. We secured all operations at 5pm MDT.