The BMB-UCAR WRF 3D-Var project has entered the second year. There has been a need for adding a detailed working plan to the existing SoW. There are 3 tasks in the second year, Task 4, Task 5 and Task 6. Year 2 represents the period from April 2006 to March 2007.
BMB will perform testing of the WRF 3DVAR system, under the
general guidance of NCAR/MMM staff. BMB staff will devote efforts to improving
the computational performance of the WRF 3DVAR system to the extent possible,
with the technical consultation of NCAR/MMM staff.
Period: Year 2, Month 1-2
Resources required: BMB: Fan 2.0 Zhong 2.0; NCAR: Guo 0.5 (man-month)
Deliverables:
A short report on the computational performance. (BMB)
BMB staff will perform calculation of back ground error statistics necessary for the operational use of the WRF 3DVAR system. BMB staff will assess the quality of the WRF 3DVAR analysis and the meteorological performance of the WRF 3DVAR system, under the general guidance of NCAR/MMM staff. BMB will also perform tuning of the WRF 3DVAR system, including background error covariances and other components of the WRF 3DVAR system, in order to enhance the meteorological performance of the system. NCAR/MMM staff will provide the technical consultation on these tasks.
Period: Year 2, Month 3-6
Resources required: BMB 8 man-months, NCAR: 1 man-month
BMB staff will perform calculation of background error
statistics necessary for the operational use of the WRF 3DVAR system under the
general guidance of NCAR/MMM staff.
Period: Year 2, Month 3-6
Resources required: BMB: Fan 3.0, NCAR: Guo 0.5 Huang 0.0
Deliverables:
1. A report on the tuning of high-resolution background error statistics of WRF data assimilation system (NCAR & BMB).
BMB staff will develop a digital filter initialization (DFI) scheme to WRF and implement it on the pre-operational WRF cycling system of BMB. NCAR/MMM staff will provide an adiabatic backward integration scheme necessary for DFI, technical and theoretical advices, and review the code.
Period: Year 2, Month 3-6
Resources required: BMB: Chen 4.0; NCAR: Huang 0.0
Deliverables:
1. A working version of DFI can be implemented on the pre-operational WRF cycling system of BMB.
BMB staff will compare the verification scores of pre-operational WRF system with the operational MM5 system each month. NCAR/MMM staff will work with BMB staff to provide a report.
Period: Year 2, Month 3-6
Resources required: BMB: Wang 1.0, NCAR: Huang 0.5
Deliverables:
1. A report on the comparison of performances between the two systems (BMB & NCAR).
BMB staff will monitor the performance of the WRF 3DVAR system in a six-month pre-operational testing. BMB staff will identify problems of WRF 3DVAR system. NCAR/MMM staff will work with BMB staff on resolving issues identified during the pre-operational testing.
Period: Year 2, Month 7-12
Resources required: BMB: 12 man-month, NCAR: 1.5 man-month
BMB staff will implement the NCAR verification package for WRF on BMB WRF operational system. BMB staff will further develop an algorithm for verification on vertical levels. NCAR staff will provide technical guidance and review the code.
Period: Year 2, Month 3-6
Resources required: BMB: Zhong 1, Chen 1.5; NCAR Guo 0.25
Deliverables:
1. A new verification package that can perform verification on vertical levels.
BMB staff will set up a real-time GTS data collecting system. BMB staff will perform observation sensitive experiments (OSE) to assess the quality and relative significance of different kinds of observations including GPS, AWS and GTS data under the guidance of NCAR staff. BMB staff will prepare a report on the preliminary results and analysis of OSE.
Period: Year 2, Month 3-6
Resources required: BMB: Zhong 3.0, NCAR: Huang 0.25
Deliverables:
1. A real-time GTS data collecting system of BMB.
2. A report on the preliminary results and analysis of OSE.
BMB staff will construct a WRF 3DVAR cycling system. The system should be able to assimilate data sets available to BMB and run in a hot-start style with at least a 12-hour interval. NCAR/MMM will provide some necessary technical assistance.
Period: Year 2, Month 7-8
Resources required: BMB: Chen 2, Fan 1; NCAR: Guo 0.25
Deliverables:
1. A WRF based data assimilation and forecasting cycling system (BMB & NCAR).
BMB will send one staff to NCAR, lasting for 6 months to collaborate with NCAR staff on further tuning the physics options to improve the performance of BMB operational WRF model. BMB staff will analyze the performance statistics of the WRF system in the BMB operational environment under the general guidance of NCAR/MMM staff. Based on these results, additional updating and tuning on the certain aspects such as physics option, etc. of the WRF system will be performed by BMB staff under the guidance of NCAR/MMM staff. NCAR staff will collaborate with BMB staff on cases studies that are important to BMBÕs operation.
Period: Year 2, Month 10-12
Resources required: BMB: 3 man-month (Zheng), NCAR: NN 0.5
Deliverables:
1. A report on the case studies of BMB operational WRF model (BMB & NCAR).
BMB staff will perform a cycling DFI test with 3-hour interval on the 27-9-3km domain configuration of current BMBÕs MM5 operational forecast system. BMB staff will analyze the results of the noise level, spin-up level and verification scores to assess the performance of DFI on the rapid updated cycles for high-resolution numerical forecast based on MM5. NCAR staff will provide technical advices and provide a report on the relating issues.
Period: Year 2, Month 10
Resources required: BMB: Chen 0.5; NCAR: Huang 0.25
Deliverables:
1. A report on the DFI cycling runs with 3-hour interval on BMB operational MM5 system (NCAR & BMB).