AFWA's Joint Ensemble Forecasting System (JEFS)
The Joint Mesoscale Ensemble (JME) of the Advanced Research WRF model
During FY2005 (July-Nov 2005), the Mesoscale and Microscale
Meteorology Division (MMM) of the National Center of Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) contributed to the development of the JME capability of
AFWA's JEFS. An ensemble of 20 distinct sets of physical
parameterizations for the Advanced Research WRF model (ARW) has been
developed and implemented for three different cases - hurricane
Isabel (Sep 2003), A snow
storm over the East coast of the United States (Feb 2003), and typhoon
Maemi (Sep 2003) - as preliminary tests. The members of this
"multiple physics" ensemble differ in the parameterizations of
microphysics, the planetary boundary layer, the surface layer,
land-surface processes and moist convection as shown in Table
1. In each of the three cases, all ensemble members appeared to
yield physically plausible forecasts. And none of the members were
consistent outliers in their distance from the mean or, subjectively,
in the simulated structure of the fields examined.
* namelist.input is linked to each ensemble member in the catalog for each case
(in the "Model configuration" page).
Hurricane
Isabel
- Ensemble forecast (Model
configuration / Forecast
results / Diagnostics)
Snow
Storm
- Ensemble forecast (Model
configuration / Forecast
results / Diagnostics)
Typhoon Maemi
- Ensemble forecast (Model
configuration / Forecast
results / Diagnostics)