MMM/NCAR Real-Time Diagnostics

Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology, NCAR Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research

1. Overview

The diagnostic analysis and forecast animations created here (using NCL) are produced by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. All fields are computed using pressure-level data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) unless otherwise noted. Diagnostics are computed globally, but are displayed in the subdomain chosen by the user. A detailed description of the fields displayed on each set of images is provided in each subsection below and as headers and captions on the animations themselves. While every attempt is made to keep the images up-to-date, it is possible that there will be interruptions to the image generation services as system updates occur.

The intended purpose of this real-time diagnostics web page is to provide an interactive tool that can be used to enhance classroom education and/or weather discussions in both the academic and operational environment. This page provides unique diagnostic analysis in the quasi-geostrophic, potential vorticity, and balanced frameworks in order to provide a wider perspective and general use at the undergraduate and graduate levels and beyond.

****Please be patient as the analysis archive available in each loop populates in real-time through mid-August. The loops marked 'X' are not yet available.

Table of contents:
1. Overview
2. Quasi-Geostrophic Diagnostics
3. Potential Vorticity Diagnostics
4. Standardized Anomalies over North America
5. Balanced Framework Diagnostics
6. Tropical Cyclone Development and Motion Diagnostics

2. Quasi-Geostrophic (QG) Diagnostics

General Description

The QG diagnostics available here were computed using the 6-hourly pressure-level data from the 1.0x1.0 degree NCEP-GFS. The raw NCEP-GFS data was smoothed using 20 passes of a 9-point local smoother configured for heavy smoothing, unless otherwise noted, to produce cleaner results for the QG diagnostics. A detailed description of the fields displayed on each set of images is provided in the User's Guides, and as headers and captions on the animations themselves.

Brief User's Guides for the QG Equations

- Sutcliffe Development Theory
- Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Theory
- QG Height Tendency Equation
- QG Omega Equation

Animation Builder

Use the matrix to select the field you wish to animate. Each animation includes a 10-day analysis archive and the most recent 180-hour forecast.

Sutcliffe Development Theory animations:
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, 1000 hPa Geostrophic Relative Vorticity: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, 1000-500 hPa Thermal Vorticity: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, Total RHS Sutcliffe Development theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, Term A Sutcliffe Development theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, Term B Sutcliffe Development theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, Term C Sutcliffe Development theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere

Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Theory animations:
500 hPa Height, Temperature, and Geostrophic Relative Vorticity: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, Temperature, and Vertical Motion: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Total RHS Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Term A Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Term B Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
1000 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Term C Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Theory: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere

QG Height Tendency Equation animations:
500 hPa Height, Wind, and Geostrophic Absolute Vorticity: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, Temperature, and Wind: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
500 hPa Height, Temperature, and Wind: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
300 hPa Height, Temperature, and Wind: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
Traditional form:
500 hPa Height, 700-300 hPa Thickness, and Total RHS Traditional Height Tendency Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
500 hPa Height, 700-300 hPa Thickness, and Term A Traditional Height Tendency Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
500 hPa Height, 700-300 hPa Thickness, and Term B Traditional Height Tendency Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
Quasi-Geostrophic Potential Vorticity (QGPV) form:
500 hPa Height, Wind, and QGPV: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
500 hPa Height, QGPV, and Total RHS QGPV Height Tendency Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere

QG Omega Equation animations:
Traditional form:
700 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Total RHS Traditional Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Term A Traditional Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Term B Traditional Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
Sutcliffe-Trenberth form:
700 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and 700 hPa Geostrophic Relative Vorticity: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, 1000-500 hPa Thickness, and Total RHS Sutcliffe-Trenberth Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
Q-vector form:
700 hPa Height, Temperature, Q-vectors, and Term A Q-vector Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, Temperature, and Total RHS Q-vector Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, Temperature, and Term A Q-vector Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere
700 hPa Height, Temperature, and Term B Q-vector Omega Equation: North America || Eastern Hemisphere || Western Hemisphere

References

Bluestein, H. B., 1992: Principles of Kinematics and Dynamics. Vol. I. Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Oxford University Press, 431 pp.
Bosart, L. F., G. J. Hakim, K. R. Tyle, M. A. Bedrick, W. E. Bracken, M. J. Dickinson, and D. M. Schultz, 1996: Large-Scale antecedent conditions associated with the 12-14 March 1993 cyclone ("Superstorm '93") over eastern North America. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1865-1891.
Carlson, T. N., 1998: Mid-Latitude Weather Systems. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 507 pp.
Durran, D. R., and L. W. Snellman, 1987: The diagnosis of synoptic-scale vertical motion in an operational environment. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 17-31.
Hakim, G. J., L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser, 1995: The Ohio Valley wave-merger cyclogenesis event of 25-26 January 1978. Part I: Multiscale case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2663-2692.
Holton, J. R., 2004: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 4th ed. Academis Press, 535 pp.
Hoskins, B. J., I. Draghici, and H. C. Davies, 1978: A new look at the omega equation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 31-38.
Keyser, D., M. J. Reeder, and R. J. Reed, 1988: A generalization of Petterssen's frontogenesis function and its relation to the forcing for vertical motion. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 762-780.
Martin, J. E., 2006: Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Dynamics: A First Course. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 324 pp.
Petterssen, S., 1956: Motion and Motion Systems. Vol. I. Weather Analysis and Forecasting. McGraw-Hill, 428 pp.
Sanders, F., and B. J. Hoskins, 1990: An easy method for estimation of Q-vectors on weather maps. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 346-353.
Sutcliffe, R. C., 1947: A contribution to the problem of development. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 73, 370-383.
-----, and A. G. Forsdyke, 1950: The theory and use of upper air thickness patterns in forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 76, 189-217.
Trenberth, K. E., 1978: On the interpretation of the diagnostic quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 131-137.

3. Potential Vorticity Diagnostics

General Description

The analysis and forecast animations shown here are computed using the 6-hourly pressure-level data from the 1.0x1.0 degree NCEP-GFS. The raw NCEP-GFS data used for the potential vorticity (PV) advection diagnostics was smoothed using 20 passes of a 9-point local smoother configured for heavy smoothing, unless otherwise noted, to produce cleaner results. The other hemispheric charts were not smoothed. The nondivergent and irrotational wind components were computed on a global grid using functions provided by the NCL software package.

Animation Builder

Use the matrix to select the field you wish to animate. Each animation includes a 10-day analysis archive and the most recent 180-hour forecast.

Dynamic tropopause (DT) potential temperature, wind, and 925-850 hPa layer-average relative vorticity: NH || SH || WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
925 hPa potential temperature, wind, precipitable water, and 250 hPa wind speed: WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
700-500 hPa potential vorticity, 600 hPa streamfunction, 850-700 hPa moisture flux: WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
CAPE, DT-850 hPa vertical wind shear, 925-850 hPa streamfunction and Petterssen frontogenesis: WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
Sea-level pressure, 1000-500 hPa thickness, and 250 hPa wind speed: WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
250 hPa PV, Wind, Streamfunction, and PV Advection by the Nondivergent Wind: WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
250 hPa PV, Irrotational Wind, Total Wind Speed, and 600-400 hPa Ascent: WPAC || EPAC || ATL || AFR || ASIA
PV on the 310, 330, and 350 K Isentropic Surfaces: NH || SH

References

- The color bar used for the DT and 250 hPa PV/Irrotational wind charts was originally developed by Heather Archambault using GEMPAK.

4. Standardized Anomalies over North America

General Description

The analysis and forecast animations shown here are generated (utilizing GEMPAK) using the 12-hourly (0000 and 1200 UTC) pressure-level data from the 1.0x1.0 degree NCEP-GFS. The standardized anomalies are computed using a long-term (1979-2009) 21-day running mean centered on the time of analysis (Hart and Grumm 2001). The long-term climatology is derived from the 2.5x2.5 degree NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996).

Animation Builder

Use the matrix to select the field you wish to animate. Each animation includes a 20-day analysis archive and the most recent 180-hour forecast.

1000 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and wind anomalies: Analysis and Forecast || Forecast Only
850 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and wind anomalies: Analysis and Forecast || Forecast Only
700 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and wind anomalies: Analysis and Forecast || Forecast Only
500 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and wind anomalies: Analysis and Forecast || Forecast Only
200 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and wind anomalies: Analysis and Forecast || Forecast Only
Precipitable water and sea-level pressure anomalies, and 850 and 500 hPa relative humidity and wind: Analysis and Forecast || Forecast Only

References

Hart, R. E., and R. H. Grumm, 2001: Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2426-2442.
Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
- The 21-day running mean long-term climatology gridded data was computed by Jay Cordeira using GEMPAK.

5. Balanced Framework Diagnostics (over the CONUS east of the Rockies)

General Description

This section is motivated by the continuing increases in horizontal and vertical resolution in global analyses that are resulting in improved representation of mesoscale circulation systems. Because the feasibility of diagnosing mesoscale circulation systems using the traditional geostrophic wind decreases with increasing resolution (Nielsen-Gammon and Gold 2008) and in tropical latitudes, the goal is to extend the applicability of the balanced framework by replacing the geostrophic wind and full wind with the nondivergent wind. Use of the nondivergent wind in place of the geostrophic wind and full wind in a balanced framework produces cleaner and more coherent diagnostic signatures of mesoscale circulation systems. Furthermore, it is suggested that in curved flow the nondivergent wind better represents the balanced wind than the geostrophic wind or full wind. For further information, a presentation by Galarneau and Keyser (2008) is available here.

The analysis and forecast animations shown here are computed using the 6-hourly pressure-level data from the 0.5x0.5 degree NCEP-GFS available through 48-hours. The nondivergent wind components were computed on a global grid using functions provided by the NCL software package.

Animation Builder

Use the matrix to select the field you wish to animate. Each animation includes a 10-day analysis archive and the most recent 48-hour forecast.

700 hPa height, temperature, Qnd-vectors, Qnd-vector convergence: Analysis and Forecast
700 hPa geopotential height, resultant deformation, and Petterssen frontogenesis: Analysis and Forecast
700 hPa geopotential height, warm advection, and Petterssen frontogenesis: Analysis and Forecast
Sea-Level pressure, 1000-500 hPa thickness, and 250 hPa wind speed: Analysis and Forecast
850, 700, 600, and 500 hPa EPV* and Petterssen frontogenesis: Analysis and Forecast
850, 700, 600, and 500 hPa ascent, relative humidity, and nondivergent wind: Analysis and Forecast
Precipitable water, 250 hPa geopotential height, and 850-700 hPa layer-averaged wind: Analysis and Forecast
CAPE, 950-500 hPa vertical wind shear, and 700-500 hPa lapse rate: Analysis and Forecast
Dynamic tropopause potential temperature, wind, and 925-850 hPa layer-averaged relative vorticity: Analysis and Forecast

References

Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and D. A. Gold, 2008: Dynamical diagnosis: A comparison of quasigeostrophy and Ertel potential vorticity. Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting: A Tribute to Fred Sanders, Meteor. Monogr., No. 55, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 183-202.

6. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Development and Motion Diagnostics

General Description

The analysis and forecast animations shown here are computed using pressure-level data from the real-time 2012 version of the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (AHW) model (Skamarock et al. 2008; Davis et al. 2008). The purpose of this section is to provide unique diagnostic analysis of TC motion error, TC genesis environments, and of TC-TC interaction. The diagnostics are computed on the 36-km domain. The nondivergent and irrotational wind and TC-removal, steering flow, and TC motion error methodology are computed using the methods described in Galarneau and Davis (2012). The TC motion error diagnostics will have a 1-2 day lag.

The 2012 AHW will be run on active NHC invests starting on 1 August.

Animation Builder

Use the matrix to select the field you wish to animate. Each animation includes a 10-day analysis archive and the most recent 126-hour forecast.

The following loops will contain 2-panel images showing the most recent AHW and GFS forecasts:
Sea-level pressure, 850-500 hPa thickness, and 250 hPa wind speed:

Analysis and Forecast
X - 250 hPa PV, wind, 850 hPa relative vorticity: Analysis and Forecast
X - 250 hPa PV, irrotational wind, wind speed, and composite reflectivity: Analysis and Forecast
X - 700-500 hPa PV, 600 hPa streamfunction, and 850-700 hPa moisture flux: Analysis and Forecast
X - 850 hPa potential temperature, wind, precipitable water, and 250 hPa wind speed: Analysis and Forecast
X - 600 hPa geopotential height, relative humidity, and wind: Analysis and Forecast
X - 850 hPa geopotential height, relative humidity, and wind: Analysis and Forecast
The following TC motion error diagnostics will have a 1-2 day lag:
X - AHW track forecast and 24-h forecast motion error diagnosis: TC Ernesto...
X - AHW 24-h forecast environment wind error: TC Ernesto...
X - AHW 24-h forecast vertical steering layer depth wind error: TC Ernesto...
X - AHW 24-h forecast TC removal radius wind error: TC Ernesto...
X - 2-panel 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear and brightness temperature for 24-h AHW forecast and GFS analysis: TC Ernesto...
X - 2-panel vertical profile of environment wind for 24-h AHW forecast and GFS analysis: TC Ernesto...

References

Davis, C. A., and Coauthors, 2008: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1990-2005.
Galarneau, T. J., Jr., and C. A. Davis, 2012: Diagnosing forecast errors in tropical cyclone motion. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.
Skamarock, W. C., and Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, 125 pp.


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Questions or Comments? Contact Thomas Galarneau
Thomas Galarneau || NCAR Earth System Laboratory || Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
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