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Prediction & Predictability


Life Cycles of Precipitating Weather Systems

Mesoscale Data Assimilation

Weather Research & Forecasting

Deep Convective Cloud Systems

Boundary Layers & Turbulence

Surface Atmosphere Interactions

Chemistry, Aerosols & Dynamics Interactions


Ice Research

Wildfire Research

NCAR Strategic Initiatives

Prediction & Predictablity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Research Topics Include: Scale dependence of predictability, Ensemble forecasting on the mesoscale, and Verification of mesoscale model forecasts based on mesoscale predictability

The study of Life Cycles of Precipitating Weather Systems seeks to quantify the statistics and dynamics and cloud physical processes within precipitation systems such as convection cells and convection initiation, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), hurricanes, orographic rainfall, precipitation episodes (sequences of MCSs) and episode regimes. Investigation of these phenonema requires consideration of a range of spatial and temporal scales ranging from minutes or hundreds of meters (e.g. convecion initiation), to many days and thousands of kilometers (e.g. episode regimes). Research includes observational studies of the structure and evolution of precipitation systems, emphasizing both high-resolution field data (radar, lidar, soundings, satellite, in-situ cloud physics measurements), and statistics of large ensembles of cases using operational data sets. In addition, simulations using a variety of models (MM5, WRF, EULAG) form an integal part of diagnostic studies, as well as assessments of predictability of various phenomena. The collection of various datasets also allows detailed evaluation of processes within models. Life Cycle work involves extensive collaborations with researchers in RAP and ATD, as well as numerous universities.

Research Highlights (top)

Warm Season Precipitation Episodes

WSR-88 Algorithm Verification (Warm Season Rainfall)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People


David Ahijevych
Jim Bresch

Bill Kuo
Simon Lownam
Kevin Manning
Jordan Powers
Rich Rotunno
Chris Snyder
Morris Weisman

Research Highlights