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Dynamics & Predictability of 0 - 48 h Weather Systems

Focus: To investigate the dynamics of weather systems with the aim of improving their prediction, estimating their limits of predictability, identifying the key physical processes that limit forecast skill, and developing improved quantitative methods of determining forecast skill at the mesoscale.

Accurate and comprehensive estimates of predictability limits and improvements in prediction are critically dependent on improved understanding of weather system dynamics, together with identification of the important elements that govern these systems. Here we define weather systems as those occurring at, or being directly influenced by mesoscale processes (such as mesoscale convective systems, squalls, tropical cyclones and aspects of the Madden Julian Oscillation). This understanding is being developed from several complementary approaches:

* Testing hypotheses on observations;
* Examining model properties over many events and varied conditions; and,
* Assessing model sensitivity to initial conditions and moist processes.

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