WRADS Publications

Selected publications


Lazrus, H., O. Wilhelmi, R. Morss, J. Henderson, and A. Dietrich: Information as intervention: How hurricane risk communication interacted with vulnerability and capacities in Hurricane Sandy. Submitted to Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters.

Demuth, J. L., R. E. Morss, I. Jankov, T. I. Alcott, C. R. Alexander, D. Nietfeld, T. L. Jensen, D. R. Novak, and S. G. Benjamin. Recommendations for developing useful and usable convection-allowing model ensemble guidance for NWS forecasters. Submitted to Weather and Forecasting.

Miura, Y., H. Qureshi, C. Ryoo, P. C. Dinenis, J. Li, G. Deodatis, K. T. Mandli, D. Bienstock, H. Lazrus, and R. Morss: A methodological framework for determining an optimal coastal protection strategy against storm surges and sea level rise. Submitted to Natural Hazards.

Kowaleski, A., R. E. Morss, D. Ahijevych, and K. Fossell: Using a WRF-ADCIRC ensemble and track clustering to investigate storm surge predictability associated with Hurricane Irma. Submitted to Weather and Forecasting.

Morss, R. E., H. Lazrus, A. Bostrom, and J. L. Demuth: The influence of cultural worldviews on people’s responses to hurricane risks and threat information. Submitted to Journal of Risk Research.

Morss, R. E., H. Lazrus, and J. L. Demuth: The “inter” within interdisciplinary research: Strategies for building integration across fields. Risk Analysis, in press.

Watts, J., R. E. Morss, C. M. Barton, and J. L. Demuth, 2019: Conceptualizing and implementing an agent-based model of information flow and decision making during hurricane threats. Environmental Modeling and Software, 122, 104524.

Anderson, J., G. Casas Saez, K. M. Anderson, L. Palen, and R. Morss, 2019: Incorporating context and location into social media analysis: A scalable, cloud-based approach for more powerful data science. P roceedings of the 52nd Annual Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences, Maui, HI.


Demuth, J. L.: Explicating experience: Development of a valid scale of past hazard experience for tornadoes. Risk Analysis, 38, 1921-1943.

Stowe, K., M. Palmer, J. Anderson, L. Palen, K. M. Anderson, M. Kogan, R. Morss, J. Demuth, and H. Lazrus, 2018: Developing and evaluating annotation procedures for Twitter data during hazard events. Proceedings of the Joint Workshop on Linguistic Annotation, Multiword Expressions and Constructions, Santa Fe, NM.

Bostrom, A., R. E. Morss, J. K. Lazo, J. L. Demuth, and H. Lazrus: Eyeing the storm: How residents of coastal Florida see hurricane forecasts and warnings. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30A, 105–119.

Morss, R. E., C. L. Cuite, J. L. Demuth, W. K. Hallman, and R. L. Shwom: Is storm surge scary? The influence of hazard, impact, and fear-based messages and individual differences on responses to hurricane risks. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30A, 44–58.

Demuth, J. L, R. E. Morss, L. Palen, K. Anderson, J. Anderson, M. Kogan, K. Stowe, M. Bica, H. Lazrus, O. Wilhelmi, and J. Henderson: “sometimes da #beachlife ain't always da wave”: Understanding people’s evolving hurricane risk assessments and responses through a qualitative analysis of Twitter narratives . Weather, Climate, and Society, 10, 537–560.

Towler, E., H. Lazrus, and D. PaiMazumder: Characterizing the potential for drought action from combined hydrological and societal perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 1469–1482.


Morss, R. E., J. L. Demuth, H. Lazrus, L. Palen, C. M. Barton, C. A. Davis, C. Snyder, O. V. Wilhelmi, K. M. Anderson, D. A. Ahijevych, J. Anderson, M. Bica, K. R. Fossell, J. Henderson, M. Kogan, K. Stowe, and J. Watts: Hazardous weather prediction and communication in the modern information environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 2653–2674.

Dilling, L., R. Morss, and O. Wilhelmi: Learning to expect surprise: Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and beyond. Journal of Extreme Events, 4, 1771001 (8 pp).

Cuite, C. L., R. L. Shwom, W. K. Hallman, R. E. Morss, and J. L. Demuth, 2017: Improving coastal storm evacuation messages. Weather, Climate, and Society, 9, 155-170.

Fossell, K. R., D. Ahijevych, R. E. Morss, C. Snyder, and C. Davis: The practical predictability of storm tide from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 5103–5121.


Anderson, J., M. Kogan, M. Bica, L. Palen, K. Anderson, K. Stowe, R. Morss, J. Demuth, H. Lazrus, O. Wilhelmi, and J. Henderson, 2016: Far far away in Far Rockaway: Responses to risks and impacts during Hurricane Sandy through first-person social media narratives. Proceedings of the Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2016), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Bostrom, A., R. E. Morss, J. K. Lazo, J. L. Demuth, H. Lazrus, and R. Hudson, 2016: A mental models study of hurricane forecast and warning production, communication, and decision making. Weather, Climate, and Society, 8, 111-129.

Demuth, J. L., R. E. Morss, J. K. Lazo, and C. Trumbo, 2016: The effects of past hurricane experiences on evacuation intentions through risk perception and efficacy beliefs: A mediation analysis. Weather, Climate, and Society, 8, 327-344.

Lazrus, H. “Drought is a relative term”: Drought risk perceptions and water management preferences among diverse community members in the Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer. Human Ecology, 44, 595-605.

Lazrus, H., R. E. Morss, J. L. Demuth, A. Bostrom, and J. K. Lazo, 2016: “Know what to do if you encounter a flash flood”: Mental models analysis for improving flash flood risk communication and public decision making. Risk Analysis, 36, 411-427.

Maldonado, J., and H. Lazrus, 2016: The story of Rising Voices: facilitating collaboration between Indigenous and Western ways of knowing. In: M. Companion and M. Chaiken, Understanding Vulnerability, Building Resilience: Responses to Disasters and Climate Change. CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.

Marino, E., and H. Lazrus, 2016: “We Are Always Getting Ready”: How Diverse Notions of Time and Flexibility Contribute to Adaptive Capacity in Alaska and Tuvalu. In: G. Button and M. Schuller, Contextualizing Disaster. Berghahn Books.

Morss, R. E., J. L. Demuth, J. K. Lazo, K. Dickinson, H. Lazrus, and B. H. Morrow, 2016: Understanding public hurricane evacuation decisions and responses to forecast and warning messages. Weather and Forecasting, 31, 395-417.

Morss, R. E., K. J. Mulder, J. K. Lazo, and J. L. Demuth, 2016: How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 541, Part A, 649–664.

Towler, E., and H. Lazrus. Increasing the usability of drought information for risk management in the Arbuckle Simpson Aquifer, Oklahoma. Climate Risk Management, 13, 64-75.


Demuth, J. L., 2015: Developing a valid scale of past tornado experiences. PhD dissertation. Colorado State University, 195 pp.

Lazo, J. K., A. Bostrom, R. E. Morss, J. L. Demuth, and H. Lazrus, 2015: Factors affecting hurricane evacuation intentions. Risk Analysis, 35, 1837-1857.

Lazrus, H., 2015: Risk perception and climate adaptation in Tuvalu: A combined cultural theory and traditional knowledge approach. Human Organization, 74, 52-61.

Marino, E., and H. Lazrus, 2015: Migration or forced displacement?: The complex choices of climate change and disaster migrants in Shishmaref, Alaska and Nanumea, Tuvalu. Human Organization, 74, 341-350.

Morss, R. E., J. L. Demuth, A. Bostrom, J. K. Lazo, and H. Lazrus, 2015: Flash flood risks and warning decisions in Boulder, Colorado: A mental models study of forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters. Risk Analysis, 35, 2009-2028.


McNeeley, S. and H. Lazrus. 2014: The cultural theory of risk for climate change adaptation. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6, 506-519.

Orlove, B., H. Lazrus, G. Hovelsrud, and A. Giannini, 2014: Recognitions and responsibilities: On the origins and consequences of the uneven attention to climate change around the world. Current Anthropology, 55, 249-275.


Demuth, J. L., R. E. Morss, J. K. Lazo, and D. C. Hilderbrand, 2013: Improving communication effectiveness of weather risk information on the NWS point-and-click webpage. Weather and Forecasting, 28, 711–726.

Wilhelmi, O. V., and R. E. Morss, 2013: Integrated analysis of societal vulnerability in an extreme precipitation event: a Fort Collins case study. Environmental Science and Policy, 26, 49-62.


Demuth, J. L., R. E. Morss, B. Hearn Morrow, and J. K. Lazo, 2012: Creation and communication of hurricane risk information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 73, 1133-1145.

Lazrus, H., B. H. Morrow, R. E. Morss, and J. K. Lazo, 2012: Vulnerability beyond stereotypes: Context and agency in hurricane risk communication. Weather, Climate, and Society, 4, 103-109.


Demuth, J. L., J. K. Lazo, and R. E. Morss, 2011: Exploring variations in people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of weather forecasts. Weather, Climate, and Society, 3, 177-192.

Morss, R. E., O. V. Wilhelmi, G. A. Meehl, and L. Dilling, 2011: Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: An integrated perspective. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 36, 1-25.


Morss, R. E., 2010: Interactions among flood predictions, decisions, and outcomes: A synthesis of three cases. Natural Hazards Review, 11, 83-96.

Morss, R. E., and M. H. Hayden, 2010: Storm surge and “certain death”: Interviews with Texas coastal residents following Hurricane Ike. Weather, Climate, and Society, 2, 174-189.

Morss, R. E., J. K. Lazo, and J. L. Demuth, 2010: Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: Results from a U.S. survey with implications for uncertainty communication. Meteorological Applications, 17, 149-162.

Schumacher, R. S., D. T. Lindsey, A. B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. D. Miller, and J. L. Demuth, 2010: Multidisciplinary analysis of an unusual tornado: Meteorology, climatology, and the communication and interpretation of warnings . Weather and Forecasting, 25, 1412-1429.


Demuth, J. L., B. H. Morrow, and J. K. Lazo, 2009: Weather forecast uncertainty information: An exploratory study with broadcast meteorologists. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1614-1618.

Lazo, J. K., R. E. Morss, and J. L. Demuth, 2009: 300 billion served: Sources, perceptions, uses, and values of weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 785-798.


Morss, R. E., J. L. Demuth, and J. K. Lazo, 2008: Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 974-991.

Morss, R. E., and F. Zhang, 2008: Linking meteorological education to reality: A prototype undergraduate research study of public response to Hurricane Rita forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 497-504.

Morss, R. E., J. K. Lazo, B. G. Brown, H. E. Brooks, P. T. Ganderton, and B. N. Mills, 2008: Societal and economic research and applications for weather forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 335-346.


Demuth, J. L., E. Gruntfest, R. E. Morss, S. Drobot, and J. K. Lazo, 2007: Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS): Building a community for integrating meteorology and social science. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1729-1737.

Morss, R. E., and F. M. Ralph, 2007: Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 539-555.

Morss, R. E., and E. Wahl, 2007: An ethical analysis of prediction and decision making: The case of the Red River flood of 1997. Environmental Hazards, 7, 342-352.

Zhang, F., R. E. Morss, J. A. Sippel, T. K. Beckman, N. C. Clements, N. L. Hampshire, J. N. Harvey, J. M. Hernandez, Z. C. Morgan, R. M. Mosier, S. Wang, and S. D. Winkley, 2007: An in-person survey investigating public perceptions of and response to Hurricane Rita forecasts along the Texas Coast. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1177-1190.


Downton, M. W., R. E. Morss, O. V. Wilhelmi, E. C. Gruntfest, and M. L. Higgins, 2006: Interactions between scientific uncertainty and flood management decisions: Two case studies in Colorado. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards, 6, 134-146.


Morss, R. E., 2005: Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 181–191.

Morss, R. E., and W. H. Hooke, 2005: The outlook for U.S. meteorological research in a commercializing world: Fair early, but clouds moving in? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 921–936.

Morss, R. E., K. A. Miller, and M. S. Vasil, 2005: A systematic economic approach to evaluating public investment in observations for weather forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 374–388.

Morss, R. E., O. V. Wilhelmi, M. W. Downton, and E. Gruntfest, 2005: Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision-making: Lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1593–1601.