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Scientists have found that internal variability can make one season twice as active as another, even when large-scale hurricane-shaping elements are unchanged. The research suggests that seasonal hurricane forecasts could be improved by conveying the amount of unavoidable uncertainty in the outlook.

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Steve Conley, University of California, Davis, 2013-Jan-01 (Don Lenschow)
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Orlove, B., H. Lazrus, G.K. Hovelsrud, and A. Giannini, 2014: Recognitions and responsibilities on the origins and consequences of the uneven attention to climate change around the world. Current Anthropology, 55, 249-275, DOI: 10.1086/676298.
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Miglietta, M.M., and R. Rotunno, 2014: Numerical simulations of sheared conditionally unstable flows over a mountain ridge. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71, 1747-1762, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0297.1.
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Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Y. Liu, W. Wu, P. Kunin, A. Givati, and M. Ge, 2014: Towards a high-resolution climatography of seasonal precipitation over Israel. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 1964-1979, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3814.
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