Wet‐to‐dry cascades may increasingly drive wildfire activity in non‐forested ecosystems, and further amplify the risk of urban interface fire disasters, in a warming climate
Swain, D. L., Stephens, J.. (2026). Wet‐to‐dry cascades may increasingly drive wildfire activity in non‐forested ecosystems, and further amplify the risk of urban interface fire disasters, in a warming climate. Global Change Biology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70681
| Title | Wet‐to‐dry cascades may increasingly drive wildfire activity in non‐forested ecosystems, and further amplify the risk of urban interface fire disasters, in a warming climate |
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| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | Daniel L. Swain, J. Stephens |
| Abstract | This article explores how "hydroclimatic rebound" events—a rapid succession of anomalously wet periods followed by extreme dryness—increasingly drive catastrophic wildfire activity in non-forested ecosystems like grasslands and shrublands. Unlike forests, where fire risk is primarily linked to long-term aridity, these "fuel-limited" ecoregions experience a "1–2 punch": wet years trigger rapid biomass accumulation, which then desiccates quickly during subsequent dry spells, creating high fuel loads and extreme flammability. Using the devastating 2025 Southern California wildfires as a case study, the authors argue that increasing hydroclimate volatility in a warming world will amplify these wet-to-dry cascades. This trend poses a disproportionate threat to the wildland-urban interface (WUI), as these "fast fires" often result in greater loss of life and property than forest fires. The authors conclude that incorporating these temporal sequences into predictive models is essential for improving early warning systems, land management, and long-term climate adaptation planning. |
| Publication Title | Global Change Biology |
| Publication Date | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70681 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7br8xp0 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| MMM Affiliations | MMMAO |