Publications

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MMM OpenSky Publications

There are 5018 publications affiliated with MMM.

Select a year, sub-unit, genre, and/or author name to view peer-reviewed publications involving authors from MMM. You can browse the full list of publications and search for specific ones in OpenSky, the open-access repository of scholarly works developed and managed by NSF NCAR Library.

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Publications (Showing 100 of 5018 total )

Evaluation of multi-member ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts in the taiwan area heavy-rainfall prediction experiment (TAHPEX) for dry-run mei-yu events: higher predictability over mountains than plains in taiwan

Wang, C., Huang, P., Hong, J., Chien, F., Yang, M., et al. (2026). Evaluation of multi-member ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts in the taiwan area heavy-rainfall prediction experiment (TAHPEX) for dry-run mei-yu events: higher predictability over mountains than plains in taiwan. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-026-00132-1

In this study, the skill of 24—h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for nine verification periods in three Mei-yu events during dry-runs by the cloud-resolving multi-model ensemble (with grid sizes of roughly 1 − 3 km) in the Taiwa...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Layer‐dependent diurnal moist static energy biases in the unified forecast system during the MJO preconditioning stage: a DYNAMO case study

Li, W., Sun, S., Bengtsson, L., Zhang, M., Dudhia, J., et al. (2026). Layer‐dependent diurnal moist static energy biases in the unified forecast system during the MJO preconditioning stage: a DYNAMO case study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046470

Accurate simulation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) requires realistic diurnal evolution and vertical distribution of moist static energy (MSE). While prior studies documented MSE bias in simulations, vertically dependent physical pr...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Sensitivity of arctic mixed-phase cloud simulations to ice microphysical modifications in the WDM6 scheme of WRF (v4.3.1)

Sung, H., Lim, K., Hong, S., Shin, J., Kim, B., et al. (2026). Sensitivity of arctic mixed-phase cloud simulations to ice microphysical modifications in the WDM6 scheme of WRF (v4.3.1). Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7069-2026

Arctic mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) remain challenging to represent in atmospheric models, with bulk microphysics schemes typically biased toward either excessive glaciation or inadequate ice formation. This study evaluates the behavior of the...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup

Quagraine, K. A., Quagraine, K. T., Lennard, C.. (2026). Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup. Environmental Research Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9139

Large outdoor sporting events increasingly coincide with dangerous heat, yet hazard assessments often rely on seasonal averages that obscure the conditions athletes and spectators actually experience. Here we quantify heat exposure during t...

Publication Genre: Article

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Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy

Richter, J. H., Harney, L., Haacker, R., Clyne, J. P., Cains, M., et al. (2026). Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-26-0202.1

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly transforming Earth system science (ESS), enabling new approaches to observation, data assimilation, and forecasting across interconnected atmospheric, chemical, hydrological...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Assessing the impact of countergradient fluxes on the general circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model

Nardi, K., Zarzycki, C., Larson, V. E., Stephens, B., Bryan, G. H., et al. (2026). Assessing the impact of countergradient fluxes on the general circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121230

Parameterizing boundary layer turbulence in Earth System Models (ESMs) introduces a key source of uncertainty. Here, we explore the impact of implementing a prognostic formulation (PMF) for momentum flux, which permits countergradient (CG) ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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A concept of a convection-cloud chamber to study aerosol-cloud-drizzle interactions

Shaw, R. A., Ovchinnikov, M., Bakri, Z., Beard, G., Bois, C., et al. (2026). A concept of a convection-cloud chamber to study aerosol-cloud-drizzle interactions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0113.1

Understanding and quantifying the full chain of processes from aerosol activation to drizzle formation, and the associated feedbacks to the aerosol chemical and physical properties, all within a turbulent cloud are some of the toughest chal...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Simulating the transition from freezing rain to ice pellets during WINTRE-MIX: The role of secondary ice production

Han, B., Minder, J. R., Morrison, H., Milbrandt, J. A., Cholette, M.. (2026). Simulating the transition from freezing rain to ice pellets during WINTRE-MIX: The role of secondary ice production. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0191.1

Accurately forecasting the precipitation-type (p-type) transition from freezing rain (FZRA) to ice pellets (PLs) is challenging. Meanwhile, factors leading to this transition have not been well studied. In this study, we use the predicted p...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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On the representation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in operational forecast models: An object-tracking perspective

Lawton, Q. A., Rios-Berrios, R., Judt, F., Magnusson, L., Köhler, M.. (2026). On the representation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in operational forecast models: An object-tracking perspective. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-25-0182.1

Accurately forecasting convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) remains a major challenge, as many models struggle to realistically simulate their structure and propagation. However, previous studies have often focused on a limited set of ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM, WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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The ideas lab as a mechanism for enabling interdisciplinary and convergence research

Valle, A. N. R., McCauley-Hartner, A., Cains, M., Montaño, P. A.. (2026). The ideas lab as a mechanism for enabling interdisciplinary and convergence research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-26-0162.1

The NSF NCAR Faculty Innovator Program funds university faculty to codevelop interdisciplinary, actionable research projects in partnership with NSF NCAR scientists and engineers, with the goals of expanding capacity for convergence researc...

Publication Genre: Article

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Simulations of the onset and dynamical evolution of inertial waves in solar/stellar interior

Souza-Gomes, M. D., Finotti, C. S., Guerrero, G., Triana, S. A., Dikpati, M., et al. (2026). Simulations of the onset and dynamical evolution of inertial waves in solar/stellar interior. The Astrophysical Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae579c

Inertial modes have been recently detected in the Sun via helioseismology, yet their origin, evolution, and role in the dynamics of the solar plasma and magnetic field remain poorly understood. In this study, we employ global numerical simu...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Evaluating the collision‐coalescence process in idealized cloud convection using large‐eddy simulations with Lagrangian microphysics

Ren, Y., Chandrakar, K. K., Yang, F., Shaw, R. A.. (2026). Evaluating the collision‐coalescence process in idealized cloud convection using large‐eddy simulations with Lagrangian microphysics. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118873

Drizzle initiation through the collision and coalescence of cloud droplets plays a crucial role inwarm cloud precipitation. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the influence of collisional growth on thedroplet size distribution can be q...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework

Berner, J., Jaye, A. B., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. A.. (2026). Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120435

The success of numerical weather prediction depends on accurate atmospheric initialization, but at subseasonal lead times, land and ocean initial states become increasingly important. Predictability on these timescales arises from slowly ev...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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South American mesoscale convective systems: Present and future climates

Rehbein, A., Ambrizzi, T., Prein, A.. (2026). South American mesoscale convective systems: Present and future climates. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045438

This study investigates the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South America in a future climate using two distinct modeling approaches: the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model with dynamical downscaling and pseudogl...

Publication Genre: Article

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The Lidar Radar Open Software Environment (LROSE): An end-to-end suite of applications for radar and lidar processing

Dixon, M. J., DeHart, J., Javornik, B., Cha, T., Bell, M., et al. (2026). The Lidar Radar Open Software Environment (LROSE): An end-to-end suite of applications for radar and lidar processing. Journal of Open Research Software, doi:https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.630

The Lidar Radar Open Software Environment (LROSE) is a suite of high-performance C++ applications for format conversion, quality control, visualization, and analysis of weather radar and lidar data, developed over 30 years at the U.S. Natio...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Data fusion for fine-scale ozone mapping in the New York City metropolitan area using low-cost sensors and model information

Hojeily, E., Lu, C. H., Alessandrini, S., Kim, J., Kumar, R., et al. (2026). Data fusion for fine-scale ozone mapping in the New York City metropolitan area using low-cost sensors and model information. Atmospheric Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.121805

Surface ozone (O3) exhibits spatiotemporal variability in the New York City metropolitan area (NYCMA) under the influence of complex mesoscale flows which transport O3 and its precursors. Fine-scale ambient air quality monitoring is critica...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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A model interrcomparison study to investigate mixing characteristics in non‐precipitating stratocumulus clouds

Yang, F., Choi, K. O., Chandrakar, K. K., Hoffmann, F., Hou, P., et al. (2026). A model interrcomparison study to investigate mixing characteristics in non‐precipitating stratocumulus clouds. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005620

Recent aircraft observations of marine stratocumulus clouds consistently showed that cloud microphysical relationships vary with altitude, indicating inhomogeneous mixing characteristics near cloud top and homogeneous mixing characteristics...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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The role of subcloud mesoscale convergence in sculpting convective updraft width and depth

Marquis, J. N., Varble, A. C., Feng, Z., Gustafson, W. I., Morrison, H., et al. (2026). The role of subcloud mesoscale convergence in sculpting convective updraft width and depth. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-25-0179.1

The initiation of deep moist convection is governed in part by the horizontal width of updrafts near cloud base, which limits the deleterious effects of entrainment-driven dilution on buoyant thermals ascending through the free troposphere....

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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A regional atmospheric model using the spectral-element method

Kim, J., Cho, H., Noh, I., Jang, J., Choi, S., et al. (2026). A regional atmospheric model using the spectral-element method. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0158.1

This paper introduces a limited-area version of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), whose global counterpart has been used operationally by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for weather forecasting since 2020. A central component...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Precipitation efficiency by storm type in km-scale climate simulations and satellite observations

Kukulies, J., Prein, A., Done, J. M., Stansfield, A. M., Rios-Berrios, R.. (2026). Precipitation efficiency by storm type in km-scale climate simulations and satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044800

Precipitation efficiency (PE), the fraction of cloud condensate converted into surface precipitation, is a key metric for understanding Earth's hydroclimate but has been challenging to observe and evaluate in models. Using satellite-retriev...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Evaluate the impact of power-law scattering amplitude fitting on dual-polarization radar data assimilation – summertime cases study

Chung, K., Chang, C., Zhuang, B., Tsai, C., Lan, C., et al. (2026). Evaluate the impact of power-law scattering amplitude fitting on dual-polarization radar data assimilation – summertime cases study. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1551-2026

Different configurations within the observation operator cause dual-polarization radar parameters to exhibit various characteristics, which affect the structure of background error covariance as well as the results of data assimilation. Thr...

MMM Affiliations: MMMAO

Publication Genre: Article

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Predicting and projecting extreme precipitation in coastal cities with high-resolution modeling

Prein, A., Lau, A., Shi, X., Chen, F., Xue, L., et al. (2026). Predicting and projecting extreme precipitation in coastal cities with high-resolution modeling. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0347.1

The Ninth Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling (CPCM) Workshop, Hong Kong, 2025 What: The ninth CPCM Workshop, hosted by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, brought together approximately 130 researchers from 22 countries ...

Publication Genre: Article

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Beyond surface fluxes: Observational and computational needs of multilayer canopy models – A walnut orchard test case

Bonan, G. B., Burns, S., Patton, E. G.. (2026). Beyond surface fluxes: Observational and computational needs of multilayer canopy models – A walnut orchard test case. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110960

Land surface models simulate fluxes exchanged between the land and atmosphere in weather and climate models. The prevailing modeling paradigm uses a big-leaf canopy parameterization that is not vertically-resolved. Multilayer canopy models ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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The UCAR Africa Initiative: Recent insights, challenges, and opportunities to foster collaborative research for environmental sustainability

Tang, W., Kumar, R., Méndez, A. d. M., Ahafianyo, F., Akinsanola, A. A., et al. (2026). The UCAR Africa Initiative: Recent insights, challenges, and opportunities to foster collaborative research for environmental sustainability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0118.1

Africa is increasingly being exposed to the negative impacts of climate and envi- ronmental change, while having less capacity to respond compared to other continents. The vulnerability partially results from unprecedented demographic growt...

MMM Affiliations: PARC, WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Impact of GNSS RO data on the prediction of atmospheric river events: A ROMEX experiment

Lin, H., Kuo, Y., Zhang, H., Braun, J. J., Liu, Z.. (2026). Impact of GNSS RO data on the prediction of atmospheric river events: A ROMEX experiment. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0151.1

The assimilation of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) data has been shown to improve the prediction of atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are key drivers of heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. This st...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Earth system predictability across time scales for a resilient society: A research community perspective

Richter, J. H., Joseph, E., Arcodia, M. C., Berner, J., Demuth, J. L., et al. (2026). Earth system predictability across time scales for a resilient society: A research community perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0155.1

With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe, accelerating progress in Earth system predictability is urgently needed to deepen fundamental understanding, improve predictive tools, and provide reliable, actionable informati...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Resolving convection doubles Sahel's contribution to global dust emission during the monsoon season

Ying, T., Leung, D. M., Judt, F., Kok, J. F., Fairbanks, L., et al. (2026). Resolving convection doubles Sahel's contribution to global dust emission during the monsoon season. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL119842

Current climate models struggle to capture the mean state and variability of dust emissions. This is partially due to their inability to resolve convection, a consequence of their relatively coarse spatial resolution. Via analysis of output...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Assessing climate and air quality benefits of methane mitigation for U.S. landfills

Folorunsho, A., Dudhia, J., Jiang, L., Yokochi, A., Li, Y.. (2026). Assessing climate and air quality benefits of methane mitigation for U.S. landfills. Journal of Environmental Management, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.128707

Landfills are an important component of the environment, serving as major sources of methane (CH4) and reactive trace gases that contribute to radiative forcing and modify atmospheric chemistry, making them a critical target for mitigation....

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?

Muñoz-Castro, E., Anderson, B. J., Astagneau, P. C., Swain, D. L., Mendoza, P. A., et al. (2026). How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026

Flood impacts can be enhanced when they occur shortly after droughts. Hydrological models are useful tools to better understand the underlying processes and mechanisms driving the response of floods occurring in close succession to streamfl...

MMM Affiliations: MMMAO

Publication Genre: Article

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A comprehensive description of the 1 August 2021 Azzano Decimo hailstorm in northeastern Italy

Manzato, A., Knight, C., Kumjian, M. R., Stenni, B., Dreossi, G., et al. (2026). A comprehensive description of the 1 August 2021 Azzano Decimo hailstorm in northeastern Italy. Frontiers in Environmental Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1735866

On 1 August 2021, a vigorous hailstorm hit Azzano Decimo, in northeastern Italy. The supercell storm produced hailstones up to 10 cm in maximum dimension, which is quite unusual in this area. The storm's environment registered one of the la...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Direct assimilation of ground-based microwave radiometer observations with machine learning bias correction based on developments of RTTOV-gb v1.0 and WRFDA v4.5

Zheng, Q., Sun, W., Liu, Z., Mao, J., He, J., et al. (2026). Direct assimilation of ground-based microwave radiometer observations with machine learning bias correction based on developments of RTTOV-gb v1.0 and WRFDA v4.5. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-731-2026

Abstract. The application of ground-based microwave radiometers (GMWRs), which provide high-quality and continuous vertical atmospheric observations, has traditionally focused on the indirect assimilation of retrieved profiles. This study a...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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A unified theory for the global thunderstorm distribution and land–sea contrast

Peters, J. M., Chavas, D. R., Su, C. Y., Murillo, E. M., Mullendore, G.. (2026). A unified theory for the global thunderstorm distribution and land–sea contrast. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120252

This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the ver...

MMM Affiliations: WMR, MMMAO

Publication Genre: Article

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Stratiform and anvil cloud-radiative forcing in tropical cyclogenesis

Luschen, E., Ruppert, J., Rios-Berrios, R., Wu, S. N., Zhang, Y.. (2026). Stratiform and anvil cloud-radiative forcing in tropical cyclogenesis. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119765

Cloud-radiative forcing (CRF) has been suggested to accelerate tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, but we do not yet understand the role of convective-scale processes in this cloud-radiative feedback. We use a convection-permitting ensemble Weat...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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In situ observations of ice crystal chain aggregates in winter storms

Nairy, C. M., Delene, D. J., Finlon, J. A., Yorks, J. E., Järvinen, E., et al. (2026). In situ observations of ice crystal chain aggregates in winter storms. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118365

Ice crystal chain aggregates—linear structures of conjoined monomer crystals—have previously been observed in strongly electrified deep convection, likely forming via electric-field-enhanced aggregation. The NASA Investigation of Microphysi...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Turbulent flow over isolated forested hills of varying shape and steepness

Patton, E. G., Finnigan, J. J., Harman, I. N., Sullivan, P. P.. (2026). Turbulent flow over isolated forested hills of varying shape and steepness. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2025.10989

To advance understanding of the influence hill-slope and hill-shape have on neutrally stratified turbulent air flow over isolated forested hills, we interrogate four turbulence-resolving simulations. A spectrally friendly fringe technique e...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Storm-based verification and intercomparison of forecasts during May and June 2023 from the HRRR, RRFS, NSSL MPAS, and C-SHiELD models

Potvin, C. K., Reames, L. J., Clark, A. J., Knopfmeier, K. H., Wang, Y., et al. (2026). Storm-based verification and intercomparison of forecasts during May and June 2023 from the HRRR, RRFS, NSSL MPAS, and C-SHiELD models. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0019.1

Most current convection-allowing models (CAMs) in the United States use one of three dynamical cores: the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model, the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) model, or the Mode...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Perspectives on systematic cloud microphysics scheme development with machine learning

Lamb, K. D., Singer, C. E. E., Loftus, K., Morrison, H., Powell, M., et al. (2026). Perspectives on systematic cloud microphysics scheme development with machine learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005341

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small-scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate m...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Wet‐to‐dry cascades may increasingly drive wildfire activity in non‐forested ecosystems, and further amplify the risk of urban interface fire disasters, in a warming climate

Swain, D. L., Stephens, J.. (2026). Wet‐to‐dry cascades may increasingly drive wildfire activity in non‐forested ecosystems, and further amplify the risk of urban interface fire disasters, in a warming climate. Global Change Biology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70681

This article explores how "hydroclimatic rebound" events—a rapid succession of anomalously wet periods followed by extreme dryness—increasingly drive catastrophic wildfire activity in non-forested ecosystems like grasslands and shrublands. ...

MMM Affiliations: MMMAO

Publication Genre: Article

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Simulating closed-to-open mesoscale cellular convection over the Southern Ocean: Part I. Evaluation using SOCRATES and CAPRICORN observations

Duque, E. M., Huang, Y., Siems, S. T., Morrison, H., May, P. T.. (2025). Simulating closed-to-open mesoscale cellular convection over the Southern Ocean: Part I. Evaluation using SOCRATES and CAPRICORN observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044198

Understanding Earth's climate sensitivity remains a critical challenge for improving climate projections. Discrepancies between recent and previous generations of climate models highlight the need for better representation of low-level clou...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Simulating closed-to-open mesoscale cellular convection over the Southern Ocean: Part II. Perturbed physics experiments

Duque, E. M., Huang, Y., Siems, S. T., Morrison, H., May, P. T.. (2025). Simulating closed-to-open mesoscale cellular convection over the Southern Ocean: Part II. Perturbed physics experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044199

Accurate representation of mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) cloud morphology over the Southern Ocean is essential for improving climate model parametrizations and reducing projection uncertainties given their highly variable radiative im...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Role of diurnal cycle of insolation on the MJO propagation in the Maritime Continent

Zhou, X., Ray, P., Dudhia, J., Hagos, S., Johnson, N. C., et al. (2025). Role of diurnal cycle of insolation on the MJO propagation in the Maritime Continent. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044257

The diurnal cycle of convection in the Maritime Continent (MC) has been hypothesized to act as a barrier to the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). To test this hypothesis, we use a regional model with realistic MJO...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Dampening of the precipitation response to aerosol pollution from turbulence in cumulus clouds

Chandrakar, K. K., Morrison, H.. (2025). Dampening of the precipitation response to aerosol pollution from turbulence in cumulus clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118693

Using aircraft observations and a cloud model with particle-based microphysics, it is shown that the enhancement of drop collision-coalescence from turbulence in clouds not only leads to earlier onset of rain in warm cumulus clouds as past ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP): An overview

Pan, L. L., Atlas, E. L., Newman, P. A., Thornberry, T., Jucks, K. W., et al. (2025). The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP): An overview. , doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044417

The Asian summer monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project is centered on a large airborne field campaign investigating the role the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) plays in changing the atmospheric composition in the upper troposphere and low...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms

Zhang, Z., Prein, A., He, C., Liu, C., Miguez-Macho, G., et al. (2025). Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03089-0

The US Corn Belt is among the world’s most productive agricultural regions and a global hotspot for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which supply vital growing season rainfall but also drive hazardous flooding. While evapotranspiration ...

Publication Genre: Article

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Sampling strategies to optimize coincident remote sensing and in situ cloud and precipitation observations from multiple aircraft

Yorks, J. E., Miller, M. A., Lang, T. J., Finlon, J. A., Adams, I. S., et al. (2025). Sampling strategies to optimize coincident remote sensing and in situ cloud and precipitation observations from multiple aircraft. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0280.1

The combination of simultaneous, collocated aircraft in situ measurements and remote sensing data at multiple wavelengths is of tremendous value in physical process studies but is hard to obtain in practice. Appropriate multiaircraft and mu...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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The CMA global atmospheric reanalysis version 1.5 (CRA1.5)

Zhang, T., Zhou, Z., Liu, Z., Shi, C., Yao, S., et al. (2025). The CMA global atmospheric reanalysis version 1.5 (CRA1.5). Journal of Meteorological Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-5112-3

Atmospheric reanalysis is a process that utilizes numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and data assimilation systems to integrate historical meteorological observations, thereby reconstructing datasets that represent past atmospheric s...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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A hybrid four‐dimensional variational data assimilation system for the model for prediction across scales (MPAS‐atmosphere): Leveraging the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)

Nystrom, R. G., Snyder, C., Liu, Z., Jung, B., Ban, J., et al. (2025). A hybrid four‐dimensional variational data assimilation system for the model for prediction across scales (MPAS‐atmosphere): Leveraging the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005183

A global Four-Dimensional Ensemble Variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system for the Atmospheric component of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-A) is presented that uses the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JE...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

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Examining the temporal dynamics of risk communication during extreme weather events: Insights from a scoping review

Ng, M., Schumacher, A., Herbert, N., Wong‐Parodi, G., Ram, N., et al. (2025). Examining the temporal dynamics of risk communication during extreme weather events: Insights from a scoping review. Risk Analysis, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70135

As extreme weather events unfold on a timescale of minutes, hours, or days, individuals must respond accordingly. Dynamic risk communication —that is, risk communication that updates alongside evolving risks—can support individuals in maki...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Dynamics of downdrafts around a growing convective cloud

Pardo, L. H., Morrison, H., Possner, A.. (2025). Dynamics of downdrafts around a growing convective cloud. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044236

We examine the dynamics of cloud-edge downdrafts over the growth phase of isolated cumuli, combining Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses. As in previous studies, our results show that growing cumuli are surrounded by downdrafts linked to cloud...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence

Chang, P., Fu, D., Liu, X., Castruccio, F., Prein, A., et al. (2025). Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence. Nature Geoscience, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01859-1

Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. ...

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Impacts of northerly low-level jets on Mesoscale Convective Systems East of the Andes

Mu, Y., Jones, C., Carvalho, L. M., Kukulies, J., Prein, A., et al. (2025). Impacts of northerly low-level jets on Mesoscale Convective Systems East of the Andes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043842

Low-level jets (LLJs) play a critical role in moisture transport, vertical motion enhancement, and orographic lifting, frequently leading to deep, organized convection formation in South America. This study examines the impacts of three typ...

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All-sky AMSU-A radiance data assimilation using the gain-form of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter within MPAS-JEDI-2.1.0: Implementation, tuning, and evaluation

Sun, T., Guerrette, J., Liu, Z., Ban, J., Jung, B., et al. (2025). All-sky AMSU-A radiance data assimilation using the gain-form of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter within MPAS-JEDI-2.1.0: Implementation, tuning, and evaluation. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8569-2025

Abstract. The Gain-form of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LGETKF) has been implemented in the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) with the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) (i.e., MPAS-JEDI)...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

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Simulation of wet snow during winter orographic precipitation using the predicted particle properties (P3) microphysics scheme

Cholette, M., Milbrandt, J. A., Morrison, H., Thériault, J. M., Lim, K. S., et al. (2025). Simulation of wet snow during winter orographic precipitation using the predicted particle properties (P3) microphysics scheme. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-25-0017.1

Forecasting winter precipitation types and their transitions is challenging because the type can vary (e.g., rain, snow, freezing rain, ice pellets, wet snow, graupel) and multiple phases can be involved. In this study, simulations of snow,...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

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Axisymmetric analysis of tornado-like vortices in simulated supercells

Rotunno, R., Markowski, P. M.. (2025). Axisymmetric analysis of tornado-like vortices in simulated supercells. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-25-0086.1

Present-day simulations of supercell thunderstorms have high resolution and incorporate the physical processes known to be conducive to simulating tornado-like vortices (TLVs). In such supercell simulations, TLVs are identified by the stren...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

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Seasonal forecasting of precipitation-relevant weather types over the United States

Towler, E. L., Done, J. M., Ge, M., Gilleland, E., Prein, A.. (2025). Seasonal forecasting of precipitation-relevant weather types over the United States. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-24-0230.1

This paper evaluates seasonal forecasts of weather types (WTs), i.e., recurring large-scale atmospheric patterns, which have been developed using a clustering method using large-scale predictors to represent precipitation variability across...

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Impacts of bulk microphysics scheme structural choices on simulations of rain initiation through drop coalescence

Morrison, H., Ma, P. L., Geiss, A., Igel, A. L., Hu, A. Z., et al. (2025). Impacts of bulk microphysics scheme structural choices on simulations of rain initiation through drop coalescence. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005026

This study examines how different structural choices in bulk microphysics schemes impact the simulation of warm rain initiation. A single liquid category (SLC) approach prognosing up to four moments of a single drop size distribution (DSD) ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

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The sensitivity of falling hail to different melting and terminal velocity parameterizations and environmental conditions

Vagasky, H. C., Adams-Selin, R. D., Bang, S. D., Heymsfield, A. J., Bansemer, A. R.. (2025). The sensitivity of falling hail to different melting and terminal velocity parameterizations and environmental conditions. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0180.1

The processes that dictate hail melt and hail terminal velocity are complex, poorly understood, and important to the characteristics of the hail that ultimately reaches the ground. Multiple parameterizations describing hail melt and termina...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Initiation of a record-breaking rainfall event in Beijing, China, associated with a penetrating inland sea-breeze front

Xiao, X., Sun, J., Xu, C., Ying, Z., Li, J., et al. (2025). Initiation of a record-breaking rainfall event in Beijing, China, associated with a penetrating inland sea-breeze front. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0194.1

In summer, many sea-breeze fronts (SBFs) are observed propagating from the sea to inland areas. However, there has been an absence of in-depth studies on whether and how these SBFs alone initiate convection initiation (CI) inland. We select...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Atmospheric River Reconnaissance: Mission planning, execution, and incorporation of operational and science objectives

Zheng, M., Ralph, F. M., Tallapragada, V., Wilson, A. M., Babbitt, S. H., et al. (2025). Atmospheric River Reconnaissance: Mission planning, execution, and incorporation of operational and science objectives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0160.1

Accurate forecasting of atmospheric river (AR) landfall is vital for western U.S. water management and flood risk mitigation. To address observation gaps and improve forecasts, the AR Reconnaissance (AR Recon) program was created as a resea...

MMM Affiliations: MMMAO

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How self-efficacy and response efficacy change with risk and adaptation behaviors during tropical cyclones

Herbert, N., Ng, M., Demuth, J. L., Schumacher, A., Walpole, H., et al. (2025). How self-efficacy and response efficacy change with risk and adaptation behaviors during tropical cyclones. Journal of Environmental Psychology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102781

Environmental hazards are made worse in a changing climate, and adaptation may hinge on whether individuals can effectively act. One of the most powerful antecedents to personal action is efficacy (self and response), but past research on e...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Southeastern U.S. residents' perceptions and responses to evolving probabilistic tornado forecasts and warnings

Wirz, C. D., Demuth, J. L., Prestley, R., Morss, R. E., Joslyn, S. L., et al. (2025). Southeastern U.S. residents' perceptions and responses to evolving probabilistic tornado forecasts and warnings. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0086.1

In this study, we examine how individuals perceive and respond to probabilistic tornado information that evolves across different space and time scales. We conducted 36 structured in-person interviews in July of 2024 with residents of the s...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Sensitivity of tropical wave structure to resolution and convection treatment in a global non-hydrostatic model

Judt, F., Rios-Berrios, R.. (2025). Sensitivity of tropical wave structure to resolution and convection treatment in a global non-hydrostatic model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, doi:https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2025-036

Tropical waves shape weather across equatorial regions, yet their representation in global models remains a for-midable challenge. This study investigates how model fidelity depends on two key factors: horizontal resolution (120 km to 3.75 ...

MMM Affiliations: WMR, DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Investigating characteristic droplet size distributions in large eddy simulations of stratocumulus clouds

Allwayin, N., Miller, D. J., Chandrakar, K. K., Larsen, M. L., Shaw, R. A.. (2025). Investigating characteristic droplet size distributions in large eddy simulations of stratocumulus clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116021

Cloud processes relevant to radiative and precipitation properties depend on the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution. Recent holographic observations revealed that cloud droplet populations do not have the same size distribution sh...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Knowledge-guided machine learning for shape parameter and drag coefficient prediction of falling snowflakes

Fitzgerald, N., Hudson, C., Wshah, S., Heymsfield, A. J., Marshall, J. S.. (2025). Knowledge-guided machine learning for shape parameter and drag coefficient prediction of falling snowflakes. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/aies-d-24-0059.1

A novel knowledge-guided convolutional neural network (KGCNN) is presented in this work for the prediction of various three-dimensional shape parameters, drag coefficient, mass, and density of falling snowflakes. To compensate for the lack ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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FLEE 2.0: An improved agent-based model of hurricane evacuations

Harris, A., Morss, R. E., Davis, C. A., Roebber, P., Boehnert, J. M. R.. (2025). FLEE 2.0: An improved agent-based model of hurricane evacuations. Weather, Climate, and Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-24-0112.1

For this study, we present and evaluate an improved agent-based modeling framework, the Forecasting Laboratory for Exploring the Evacuation-system, version 2.0 (FLEE 2.0), designed to investigate relationships between hurricane forecast unc...

MMM Affiliations: PARC, MMMAO

Publication Genre: Article

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Response of tropical climate and extreme precipitation to ocean temperature in convection-permitting aquaplanet simulations

Rios-Berrios, R., Emanuel, K., Bryan, G. H., Medeiros, B., Done, J. M.. (2025). Response of tropical climate and extreme precipitation to ocean temperature in convection-permitting aquaplanet simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005119

Tropical climate and weather systems are integral to the global hydrological cycle. Yet, their detected and projected trends are highly uncertain in part due to shortcomings of Earth system models. This study uses novel aquaplanet simulatio...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Large eddy simulation of canonical atmospheric boundary layer flows with the spectral element method in Nek5000

Huusko, L., Mukha, T., Donati, L. L., Sullivan, P. P., Schlatter, P., et al. (2025). Large eddy simulation of canonical atmospheric boundary layer flows with the spectral element method in Nek5000. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005233

Simulation of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is challenging due to the wide range of turbulent scales in the flow. To leverage the currently available computational power for high-resolution simulation of atmospheric tur...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Response of African easterly waves to a warming climate: A convection-permitting approach

Ocasio, K. M. N., Dougherty, E. M., Moon, Z. L., Davis, C. A.. (2025). Response of African easterly waves to a warming climate: A convection-permitting approach. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005146

As the atmosphere warms, tropical cyclones (TCs) and their precursors, like African easterly waves (AEWs), will respond. While TC changes in a warmer climate have been studied, AEW evolution remains uncertain. Using a novel storm-resolving ...

MMM Affiliations: MMMAO

Publication Genre: Article

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Effect of orography on deep convection initiation produced by two sea-breeze fronts

Antonelli, M., Rotunno, R.. (2025). Effect of orography on deep convection initiation produced by two sea-breeze fronts. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-24-0254.1

In this study, large-eddy simulations (LESs) of converging sea breezes over a peninsula are performed to investigate the effect of its orography on the ability of the model to simulate an observed event of deep convection initiation and, mo...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Redrawing risks: How professional users interpret and use an iteratively redesigned hurricane threats and impacts graphic

Prestley, R., Morss, R. E., Majumdar, S. J., McNoldy, B., Millet, B., et al. (2025). Redrawing risks: How professional users interpret and use an iteratively redesigned hurricane threats and impacts graphic. Weather, Climate, and Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-25-0069.1

The National Weather Service and other weather industry partners increasingly use Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) graphics to communicate the breadth of hazards and impacts associated with tropical cyclones. However, HTI graphics are of...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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A first step toward global ensemble-based data assimilation at convection-allowing scales using MPAS and JEDI

Schwartz, C. S., Bresch, J., Lupo, K., Ban, J., Guerrette, J., et al. (2025). A first step toward global ensemble-based data assimilation at convection-allowing scales using MPAS and JEDI. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0155.1

Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) interfaced with the Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) software, we performed four global three-dimensional ensemble–variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation (DA) experim...

MMM Affiliations: PARC, WMR

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Synoptic modulation of the West African coastal atmosphere and mesoscale convective systems

Sakaeda, N., Wu, S. N., Rios-Berrios, R., Martin, E., Ocasio, K. M. N., et al. (2025). Synoptic modulation of the West African coastal atmosphere and mesoscale convective systems. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0281.1

This study uses high-resolution airborne data from the NASA Convective Process Experiments–Cabo Verde field campaign to examine the effects of synoptic conditions on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the western coastal waters of Wes...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Severe weather in a changing climate (3rd edition)

Buckley, B., Done, J. M., Henson, R. T., Turner, K., Chan, P., et al. (2025). Severe weather in a changing climate (3rd edition). , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/2cy6-r178

This third edition integrates new insights from Australian universities, government agencies, and insurance data, alongside recent national and international research, including the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Since the 2020 release, co...

Publication Genre: Technical Report

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Coupled dynamics of wall pressure and transpiration, with implications for the modelling of tailored surfaces and turbulent drag reduction

Toedtli, S. S., Leonard, A., McKeon, B.. (2025). Coupled dynamics of wall pressure and transpiration, with implications for the modelling of tailored surfaces and turbulent drag reduction. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2025.10532

Wall-based active and passive flow control for drag reduction in low-Reynolds-number (Re) turbulent flows can lead to three typical phenomena: (i) attenuation or (ii) amplification of the near-wall cycle, and (iii) generation of spanwise ro...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

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Large‐eddy simulation of the spray‐laden hurricane boundary layer: I. Spray transport and statistics

Richter, D. H., Bryan, G. H., Dennis, J. M., Sun, J., Mickelson, S.. (2025). Large‐eddy simulation of the spray‐laden hurricane boundary layer: I. Spray transport and statistics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044054

For decades, theoretical, observational, numerical, and experimental efforts have sought to quantify the behavior of sea spray in the high-wind boundary layer. A persistent problem, however, is that it is notoriously difficult to examine sp...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Retrieving tropospheric refractivity structure using interferometry of aircraft radio transmissions

Lewis, O., Brunt, C., Kitchen, M., Bowler, N. E., Stone, E.. (2025). Retrieving tropospheric refractivity structure using interferometry of aircraft radio transmissions. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4433-2025

Detailed measurements of atmospheric humidity in the lower atmosphere are currently difficult and expensive to obtain. For this reason, there is interest in the development of low-cost, high-volume opportunistic technologies to acquire meas...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Chapman, W., Schevenhoven, F., Berner, J., Keenlyside, N., Bethke, I., et al. (2025). Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5451-2025

Here we present a research framework for the first atmosphere-connected supermodel using state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 5 and 6 exchange information interactively while running, a process ...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Improving PM2.5 forecasts with three-dimensional variation data assimilation of visibility observations in China

Gao, L., Ren, L., Liu, Z., Sun, W., Jin, J., et al. (2025). Improving PM2.5 forecasts with three-dimensional variation data assimilation of visibility observations in China. Atmospheric Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121296

More than 2400 synoptic stations in China have been conducting automatic visibility observations since 2013. Investigate the potential contribution of visibility data assimilation to the prediction of visibility and PM2.5 is worthwhile. Vis...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Microphysical and kinematical characteristics of merged and isolated convective cells over the complex terrain of the Taipei Basin

Miao, J., Yang, M., Rasmussen, K. L., Bell, M. M., Kuo, H., et al. (2025). Microphysical and kinematical characteristics of merged and isolated convective cells over the complex terrain of the Taipei Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042375

This study investigates the microphysical and kinematic characteristics in extreme afternoon thunderstorm rainfall during Taiwan‐Area Heavy rain Observation and Prediction Experiment/Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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High-resolution WRF-LES-Chem simulations to investigate ozone formation regimes in Houston

Folorunsho, A., Dudhia, J., Sullivan, J., Walter, P., Flynn, J., et al. (2025). High-resolution WRF-LES-Chem simulations to investigate ozone formation regimes in Houston. ACS ES&T Air, doi:https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.5c00109

Despite decades of ongoing mitigation efforts, ozone (O3) levels remain persistently high in Houston, TX. For a high O3 episode observed during the NASA Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment-Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) campaign, w...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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Tapestries of knowledge: Using convergence science to weave indigenous science and wisdom with other scientific approaches to climate challenges

Lazrus, H., Maldonado, J., Davis, L., Martinez, C., Blanchard, P., et al. (2025). Tapestries of knowledge: Using convergence science to weave indigenous science and wisdom with other scientific approaches to climate challenges. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0215.1

The Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities Symposium at the 2023 and 2024 American Meteorological Society's (AMS) Annual Meetings showcased the ongoing efforts of Indigenous c...

MMM Affiliations: NESL, RCR

Publication Genre: Article

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Untangling the broadening of adiabatic cloud droplet spectra through eddy hopping in a high-resolution cumulus congestus simulation

Grabowski, W., Chandrakar, K. K., Morrison, H.. (2025). Untangling the broadening of adiabatic cloud droplet spectra through eddy hopping in a high-resolution cumulus congestus simulation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-25-0003.1

Turbulence has long been considered an important source of droplet spectral broadening in adiabatic volumes of warm convective clouds. The key idea is that, in a turbulent environment, droplets follow different trajectories, and this leads...

MMM Affiliations: MMMAO, DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Wind Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Using SAMURAI and AOSPRE

Bryan, D., Lee, W., Klotz, B., Cha, T.. (2025). Wind Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Using SAMURAI and AOSPRE. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/sqaa-r233

As Earth continues to warm, the expectation is that major hurricanes will likely become more frequent. Scientists are challenged to understand intensifying complex storms to mitigate impending disasters. Remote-sensing instruments have been...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Manuscript

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Utilizing GIS in Aviation for Heavy Precipitation Events: A Hurricane Michael (2018) Case Study

Cargile, L., Lee, W., Klotz, B., Cha, T.. (2025). Utilizing GIS in Aviation for Heavy Precipitation Events: A Hurricane Michael (2018) Case Study. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/ft6d-aq13

Weather is one of the greatest hazards in aviation, responsible for over 50% of aircraft-related incidents (Cao et al. 2014). One of the most common weather-related hazards is heavy rain, which can lead to aquaplaning due to standing water....

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Manuscript

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Tornado Watch Probabilities in Practice: Performance, Trust, and Use Among Emergency Managers

Dunham, V., Krocak, M. J., Prestley, R.. (2025). Tornado Watch Probabilities in Practice: Performance, Trust, and Use Among Emergency Managers. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/m0tk-m504

Probabilistic information in forecasts was long thought to be too confusing for the public and other key stakeholders. As such, it was not included in many forecasts. However, research over the last twenty years has shown that including pro...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Manuscript

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Awareness and Action: An Analysis of Public Evacuation Response During Hurricane Ian in Florida (2022)

Stopa, M., Schumacher, A.. (2025). Awareness and Action: An Analysis of Public Evacuation Response During Hurricane Ian in Florida (2022). , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/tygt-kp05

Hurricane Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022, at a Category 4 intensity. It caused the deaths of 150 individuals, making it the deadliest in the state in nearly a century, as well as causing $112 billion in damage,...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Manuscript

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Observations and Simulation of a High-Precipitation Texas Supercell: ICECHIP

Tomanek, A., Schwartz, C. S., Schumacher, R.. (2025). Observations and Simulation of a High-Precipitation Texas Supercell: ICECHIP. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/2xfj-1h51

Across North America, hailstorms are responsible for at least $10 billion in annual damage. This cost is expected to increase as housing and commercial developments expand in hail-prone areas. To fill the current gaps in hail science, the I...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Manuscript

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Impact of airborne radio occultation observations on short term precipitation forecasts of an Atmospheric River

Do, P., Haase, J. S., Baños, I. H., Hordyniec, P., Cao, B.. (2025). Impact of airborne radio occultation observations on short term precipitation forecasts of an Atmospheric River. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115639

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) collects targeted observations during major winter weather events associated with heavy precipitation and flooding on the US West Coast. Ten WC‐130J weather reconnaissance aircraft equipped with G...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Who bears the burden? An assessment of vulnerability and resilience to consecutive disasters in the Portland metro region

Ajibade, I., Sauer, J., Walter, M., Done, J. M., Ge, M., et al. (2025). Who bears the burden? An assessment of vulnerability and resilience to consecutive disasters in the Portland metro region. Environmental Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade459

Climate-related disasters threaten urban areas worldwide, yet gaps remain in understanding how multiple stressors interact to shape resilience. This study examines exposure, vulnerability, and resilience across three consecutive extreme eve...

Publication Genre: Article

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Ensemble downscaled climate dataset for Alaska and Hawaii under historical and future conditions

Kim, T., Villarini, G., Done, J. M., Prein, A., Johnson, D. R., et al. (2025). Ensemble downscaled climate dataset for Alaska and Hawaii under historical and future conditions. Scientific Data, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05366-1

While high-resolution future climate data are increasingly available for the contiguous United States, there has been limited focus on Alaska and Hawaii. Our study provides high resolution daily climate data —precipitation and temperature —...

Publication Genre: Article

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Environmental conditions and forecast error evolution associated with synoptic progressiveness errors in GFS forecasts

Lupo, K., Schwartz, C. S.. (2025). Environmental conditions and forecast error evolution associated with synoptic progressiveness errors in GFS forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0137.1

Operational forecasters often note that medium-range forecasts of midtropospheric cutoff lows using the Global Forecast System (GFS) are typically characterized by excessive synoptic progressiveness, i.e., a tendency to advance features too...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

Publication Genre: Article

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Earth, wind, and fire: Are Boulder’s extreme downslope winds changing?

Meehl, G. A., Shields, C. A., Myers, B., Larson, M., Durran, D., et al. (2025). Earth, wind, and fire: Are Boulder’s extreme downslope winds changing?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0091.1

A Denver newspaper in 2016 reported that a new Colorado all-time record peak wind gust of 148 mph was recorded on 18 February 2016, on Monarch Pass in the Colorado Rockies near 11 000 ft above sea level. The article stated that this broke ...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

Publication Genre: Article

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How are large hailstones produced in five distinct potential severe hailstorm environments?

Zhang, S., Zhang, Q., Liu, C., Heymsfield, A. J., Lin, X., et al. (2025). How are large hailstones produced in five distinct potential severe hailstorm environments?. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-24-0146.1

The thermodynamic and kinematic environments favoring the growth of large hailstones (diameter ≥ 19 mm) may be classified into five distinct types. In this study, we present a simple semi-three-dimensional hailstone growth trajectory model ...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development with the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A case study over the Southern Great Plains

Li, W., D'Amico, F., Bernardet, L., Xue, L., Dudhia, J., et al. (2025). Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development with the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A case study over the Southern Great Plains. Meteorological Applications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70073

This study demonstrates a specific application of the hierarchical system development (HSD) approach to investigate, analyze, and attribute model issues within the Unified Forecast System (UFS), with a focus on process isolation. By evaluat...

MMM Affiliations: WMR

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Dual‐polarization radar data assimilation based on hydrometeor classification and its impact on severe weather prediction

Chen, H., Sun, T., Zhao, K., Chen, Y., Zhou, A., et al. (2025). Dual‐polarization radar data assimilation based on hydrometeor classification and its impact on severe weather prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042797

The indirect radar reflectivity assimilation method, which assimilates retrieved hydrometeors from radar reflectivity data, is simple and efficient in severe weather forecasting applications. However, it suffers from retrieval errors due to...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

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Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling

Schreck, J. S., Sha, Y., Chapman, W., Kimpara, D., Berner, J., et al. (2025). Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01125-6

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) numerical weather prediction (NWP) have transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform state-of-the-art conventional NWP models like the European Center for Medium Range Weathe...

MMM Affiliations: PARC

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High-resolution temperature profiling in the Π Chamber: Variability of statistical properties of temperature fluctuations

Grosz, R., Chandrakar, K. K., Shaw, R. A., Anderson, J., Cantrell, W., et al. (2025). High-resolution temperature profiling in the Π Chamber: Variability of statistical properties of temperature fluctuations. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2619-2025

This study delves into the small-scale temperature structure inside the turbulent convection Π Chamber under three temperature differences (10, 15, and 20 K) at Rayleigh number Ra∼109 and Prandtl number Pr≈0.7. We performed high-frequency m...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

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Relationship of snow microphysics and precipitation generation to vertical motions in extratropical cyclones: Results from IMPACTS

Heymsfield, A. J., Bansemer, A. R., Heymsfield, G., DeLaFrance, A., Toohey, D., et al. (2025). Relationship of snow microphysics and precipitation generation to vertical motions in extratropical cyclones: Results from IMPACTS. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0100.1

This study analyzes in situ aircraft microphysical measurements in deep snow-producing clouds during the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field programs in winter 2020, 202...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

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Signals of nonturbulent motions caused by stable stratification in near-surface sonic anemometer data

Pan, Y., Wray, S. C., Patton, E. G.. (2025). Signals of nonturbulent motions caused by stable stratification in near-surface sonic anemometer data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-24-0070.1

Understanding the interactions between turbulent and nonturbulent motions has been a persistent challenge faced by the community studying stably stratified turbulent flows. For flows with high Reynolds number, high Rossby number, and stable...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

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Incorporation of needleleaf traits improves estimation of light absorption and gross primary production of evergreen needleleaf forests

Pan, B., Xiao, X., Pan, L., Meng, C., Blanken, P. D., et al. (2025). Incorporation of needleleaf traits improves estimation of light absorption and gross primary production of evergreen needleleaf forests. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110526

The seasonal dynamics and interannual variation of gross primary production (GPP, g C/m2/day) of evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) are important but most of models underestimate ENF GPP. In this work, we selected three ENF sites with 10+ ye...

MMM Affiliations: DPM

Publication Genre: Article

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