Publications
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MMM OpenSky Publications
There are 5034 publications affiliated with MMM.
Select a year, sub-unit, genre, and/or MMM author to view peer-reviewed publications involving authors from MMM. The author list covers MMM staff; publications they co-authored with colleagues elsewhere are included. You can browse the full list of publications and search for specific ones in OpenSky, the open-access repository of scholarly works developed and managed by NSF NCAR Library.
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Lojko, A., Prein, A., Ribeiro, B. Z., Winters, A. C.. (2026). Warm‐conveyor belt persistence and upstream cyclone tilt shape the predictability of a Rossby wave breaking event. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045396 Misrepresentation of warm‐conveyor belts (WCBs) in weather forecasting models can impinge on the medium‐range predictability of Rossby waves. Yet, the link between WCB errors and Rossby wave evolution remains poorly understood, despite the ... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Lojko, A., Skamarock, W., Shipley, D., McKinnon-Gray, E.. (2026). Significant imprints of vertical resolution on scale interactions in the global model for prediction across scales. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123871 Global kilometer-scale model simulations have demonstrated clear benefits from refining horizontal resolution in representing mesoscale weather phenomena, yet the role of vertical resolution remains comparatively underexplored. To address t... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Projected changes in wind hazards from extreme extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern US Valle, A. N. R., Prein, A., Jaye, A. B., Emanuel, K.. (2026). Projected changes in wind hazards from extreme extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern US. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046823 Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) can produce high-impact weather in mid-latitudes, leading to extreme precipitation, winds, and storm surges. Despite the societal and economic impacts of ETCs, gaps remain in our understanding of how ETCs and t... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Richter, D., Bryan, G. H., Dennis, J. M., Sun, J., Mickelson, S.. (2026). Large-eddy simulation of the spray-laden hurricane boundary layer: II. spray impacts on air-sea fluxes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045827 MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Chandrakar, K. K., Morrison, H., Shaw, R. A.. (2026). Supersaturation-droplet interactions in idealized turbulent Cloud convection and evaluation of a new subgrid model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-26-0053.1 Turbulent fluctuations of supersaturation, driven by water vapor and temperature variability, significantly influence cloud droplet activation and drop size distributions (DSDs). Accurate modeling of this variability is challenging because ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Leveraging JEDI for atmospheric composition Wei, S., Barré, J., Ha, S., Abdi-Oskouei, M., Menetrier, B., et al. (2026). Leveraging JEDI for atmospheric composition. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8367-2026 Accurate evaluation of both observations and forecasts is essential for advancing atmospheric composition research and improving operational prediction. Traditionally, this has relied on separate workflows with product-specific preprocessin... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Park, J., Liu, C., Xue, M.. (2026). Development and testing of ensemble-variational data assimilation capabilities for radar data within JEDI coupled with FV3-LAM model. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8213-2026 This study presents the first implementation and evaluation of radar reflectivity data assimilation capabilities within the ensemble three-dimensional variational (En3DVar) data assimilation (DA) system of the Joint Effort for Data assimila... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Baños, I. H., Haase, J. S., Hordyniec, P., Cao, B., Liu, Z., et al. (2026). Assimilating GNSS airborne radio occultation bending angles with MPAS-JEDI during a sequence of atmospheric rivers. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005432 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) airborne radio occultation (ARO) observations, collected during Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) campaigns, enhance AR sampling beyond traditional dropsondes. Assimilating ARO bending ang... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Schwartz, C. S., Sobash, R. A., Harris, L. M., Ahijevych, D., Cheng, K., et al. (2026). Evaluation of severe weather forecasts from real-time medium-range convection-allowing ensembles over the conterminous United States. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-25-0181.1 During both spring 2023 and 2024, we produced two sets of experimental, real-time, medium-range (3–8 days) convection-allowing ensemble (CAE) forecasts with variable-resolution global models that had 3-km horizontal cell spacing over the co... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Unifying observations, simulations, and theory for drizzle size distribution tails Shaw, R. A., Chandrakar, K. K., Krueger, S. K., Ren, Y., Yang, F., et al. (2026). Unifying observations, simulations, and theory for drizzle size distribution tails. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl125405 The onset and rate of drizzle remain open problems in atmospheric physics. This study brings together theory, simulations, and observations to analyze the emergence of power-law tails in droplet size distributions as a signature of a dynami... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Mu, Y., Jones, C., Carvalho, L. M. V., Kukulies, J., Prein, A., et al. (2026). Convection-permitting projections of low-level jets and mesoscale convective systems in South America. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046766 Anthropogenic warming is expected to substantially modify the hydroclimate of South America, a region in which low-level jets (LLJs) and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are key components of moisture transport and precipitation. However... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Harnessing Land-Atmosphere Interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal Predictability He, C., Zhang, L. N., Leung, L. R., Richter, J. H., Bassett, C., et al. (2026). Harnessing Land-Atmosphere Interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal Predictability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0255.1 2025 Advancing Understanding of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Processes on S2S Predictability Workshop What: 227 registered workshop participants gathered in person (43%) and online (57%) to discuss state-of-the-art scientific understand... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Berrington, A., Brewster, K. A., Snook, N., Xue, M., Park, J., et al. (2026). Evaluation of an experimental 15-member FV3-LAM Ensemble for the summer 2024 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0256.1 A 15-member experimental ensemble using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Limited Area Model (FV3-LAM) dynamic core is evaluated for precipitation forecasting during summer 2024. The ensemble was run once daily out to an 84-h lead, for a total... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sobash, R. A., Schwartz, C. S., Ahijevych, D.. (2026). Evaluating the skill of medium-range machine learning-based convective hazard forecasts derived from convection-allowing ensembles. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0243.1 We assess the skill of daily machine learning (ML)-based probabilistic convective hazard predictions generated from two experimental medium-range (i.e., extending to day 8) convection-allowing ensemble (CAE) systems to determine if such pre... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Wang, C., Huang, P., Hong, J., Chien, F., Yang, M., et al. (2026). Evaluation of multi-member ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts in the taiwan area heavy-rainfall prediction experiment (TAHPEX) for dry-run mei-yu events: higher predictability over mountains than plains in taiwan. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-026-00132-1 In this study, the skill of 24—h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for nine verification periods in three Mei-yu events during dry-runs by the cloud-resolving multi-model ensemble (with grid sizes of roughly 1 − 3 km) in the Taiwa... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sung, H., Lim, K., Hong, S., Shin, J., Kim, B., et al. (2026). Sensitivity of arctic mixed-phase cloud simulations to ice microphysical modifications in the WDM6 scheme of WRF (v4.3.1). Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7069-2026 Arctic mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) remain challenging to represent in atmospheric models, with bulk microphysics schemes typically biased toward either excessive glaciation or inadequate ice formation. This study evaluates the behavior of the... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Li, W., Sun, S., Bengtsson, L., Zhang, M., Dudhia, J., et al. (2026). Layer‐dependent diurnal moist static energy biases in the unified forecast system during the MJO preconditioning stage: a DYNAMO case study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046470 Accurate simulation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) requires realistic diurnal evolution and vertical distribution of moist static energy (MSE). While prior studies documented MSE bias in simulations, vertically dependent physical pr... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Heymsfield, A. J., Szakall, M., Theis, A., Shedd, L., Giammanco, I.. (2026). Toward a universal relationship for the drag coefficients and associated terminal velocities of unmelted through melting hailstones. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-25-0173.1 Ice replicas of natural hailstones together with earlier measurements for natural hailstones are used to develop a relationship that characterizes the drag coefficient and terminal velocity of hailstones through their stages of development ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tsai, T., Chen, J., Liu, Z., Jiang, S., Kong, R., et al. (2026). Development of the TCWA2 bulk cloud microphysics scheme and its integration with a dual-polarization radar operator for forecasting applications. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6231-2026 This study presents the development and evaluation of TCWA2, a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme designed for weather forecasting that incorporates radar observations at the Taiwan Central Weather Administration. By simplifying t... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy Richter, J. H., Harney, L., Haacker, R., Clyne, J. P., Cains, M., et al. (2026). Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-26-0202.1 Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly transforming Earth system science (ESS), enabling new approaches to observation, data assimilation, and forecasting across interconnected atmospheric, chemical, hydrological... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup Quagraine, K. A., Quagraine, K. T., Lennard, C.. (2026). Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup. Environmental Research Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9139 Large outdoor sporting events increasingly coincide with dangerous heat, yet hazard assessments often rely on seasonal averages that obscure the conditions athletes and spectators actually experience. Here we quantify heat exposure during t... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Nardi, K., Zarzycki, C., Larson, V. E., Stephens, B., Bryan, G. H., et al. (2026). Assessing the impact of countergradient fluxes on the general circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121230 Parameterizing boundary layer turbulence in Earth System Models (ESMs) introduces a key source of uncertainty. Here, we explore the impact of implementing a prognostic formulation (PMF) for momentum flux, which permits countergradient (CG) ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A wind tunnel investigation into the aerodynamics of natural hailstones Theis, A., Voll, L., Diehl, K., Heymsfield, A. J., Giammanco, I., et al. (2026). A wind tunnel investigation into the aerodynamics of natural hailstones. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-25-0015.1 xperiments at the Mainz vertical wind tunnel were carried out to deepen our present knowledge on the aerodynamics of natural hailstones and to improve current fall velocity parameterizations. Thus, the present study provides parameterizatio... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A concept of a convection-cloud chamber to study aerosol-cloud-drizzle interactions Shaw, R. A., Ovchinnikov, M., Bakri, Z., Beard, G., Bois, C., et al. (2026). A concept of a convection-cloud chamber to study aerosol-cloud-drizzle interactions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0113.1 Understanding and quantifying the full chain of processes from aerosol activation to drizzle formation, and the associated feedbacks to the aerosol chemical and physical properties, all within a turbulent cloud are some of the toughest chal... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Zhou, X., Ray, P., Dudhia, J., Johnson, N. C., Nikolopoulos, E., et al. (2026). The contrasting role of soil moisture on the diurnal cycle of precipitation during dry and wet seasons over the Maritime Continent. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046303 Soil moisture strongly regulates land–atmosphere interactions, yet its influence on rainfall over the Maritime Continent remains uncertain. Using a coupled land–atmosphere regional model, we compare control simulations (CTL) initialized wit... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Han, B., Minder, J. R., Morrison, H., Milbrandt, J. A., Cholette, M.. (2026). Simulating the transition from freezing rain to ice pellets during WINTRE-MIX: The role of secondary ice production. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0191.1 Accurately forecasting the precipitation-type (p-type) transition from freezing rain (FZRA) to ice pellets (PLs) is challenging. Meanwhile, factors leading to this transition have not been well studied. In this study, we use the predicted p... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Shin, Y., Kim, J. H., Sharman, R. D., Keller, T. L., Trier, S. B., et al. (2026). Generation mechanisms of mountain-wave turbulence in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over Alaska. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-25-0166.1 Generation and evolution mechanisms of mountain-wave turbulence (MWT) encountered by an aircraft in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the mountainous region of Alaska were investigated using high-resolution numerical ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Future changes to rainfall extremes over Puerto Rico in a convection-permitting Model Dougherty, E. M., Prein, A., OGorman, P.. (2026). Future changes to rainfall extremes over Puerto Rico in a convection-permitting Model. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007833 Islands in the Caribbean are vulnerable to anthropogenic warming due to sea level rise and their reliance on rainfall for agriculture. These islands are particularly prone to rainfall extremes, such as the 1,029 mm of daily maximum rain in ... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A virtual cloud physics laboratory Morrison, H., Chandrakar, K. K., Rehme, M., Bryan, G. H., Chen, S., et al. (2026). A virtual cloud physics laboratory. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0026.1 The representation of clouds in weather and climate models is hampered by limited understanding of small-scale cloud processes, including how cloud and precipitation particles interact with cloud turbulence. Observations of natural clouds p... MMM Affiliations: DPM, MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Lawton, Q. A., Rios-Berrios, R., Judt, F., Magnusson, L., Köhler, M.. (2026). On the representation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in operational forecast models: An object-tracking perspective. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-25-0182.1 Accurately forecasting convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) remains a major challenge, as many models struggle to realistically simulate their structure and propagation. However, previous studies have often focused on a limited set of ... MMM Affiliations: DPM, WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The ideas lab as a mechanism for enabling interdisciplinary and convergence research Valle, A. N. R., McCauley-Hartner, A., Cains, M., Montaño, P. A.. (2026). The ideas lab as a mechanism for enabling interdisciplinary and convergence research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-26-0162.1 The NSF NCAR Faculty Innovator Program funds university faculty to codevelop interdisciplinary, actionable research projects in partnership with NSF NCAR scientists and engineers, with the goals of expanding capacity for convergence researc... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Simulations of the onset and dynamical evolution of inertial waves in solar/stellar interior Souza-Gomes, M. D., Finotti, C. S., Guerrero, G., Triana, S. A., Dikpati, M., et al. (2026). Simulations of the onset and dynamical evolution of inertial waves in solar/stellar interior. The Astrophysical Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae579c Inertial modes have been recently detected in the Sun via helioseismology, yet their origin, evolution, and role in the dynamics of the solar plasma and magnetic field remain poorly understood. In this study, we employ global numerical simu... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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La, I., Grabowski, W., Kim, Y., Kim, S., Yum, S. S.. (2026). Lagrangian particle–based simulation of aerosol-dependent vertical variation of cloud microphysics in a laboratory convection cloud chamber. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5213-2026 We investigate the vertical variability of cloud microphysics in a turbulent convection cloud chamber through large-eddy simulations coupled with a Lagrangian super droplet (SD) model. Numerical experiments mimic the convection chamber unde... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ren, Y., Chandrakar, K. K., Yang, F., Shaw, R. A.. (2026). Evaluating the collision‐coalescence process in idealized cloud convection using large‐eddy simulations with Lagrangian microphysics. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118873 Drizzle initiation through the collision and coalescence of cloud droplets plays a crucial role inwarm cloud precipitation. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the influence of collisional growth on thedroplet size distribution can be q... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework Berner, J., Jaye, A. B., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. A.. (2026). Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120435 The success of numerical weather prediction depends on accurate atmospheric initialization, but at subseasonal lead times, land and ocean initial states become increasingly important. Predictability on these timescales arises from slowly ev... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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South American mesoscale convective systems: Present and future climates Rehbein, A., Ambrizzi, T., Prein, A.. (2026). South American mesoscale convective systems: Present and future climates. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045438 This study investigates the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South America in a future climate using two distinct modeling approaches: the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model with dynamical downscaling and pseudogl... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Dixon, M. J., DeHart, J., Javornik, B., Cha, T., Bell, M., et al. (2026). The Lidar Radar Open Software Environment (LROSE): An end-to-end suite of applications for radar and lidar processing. Journal of Open Research Software, doi:https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.630 The Lidar Radar Open Software Environment (LROSE) is a suite of high-performance C++ applications for format conversion, quality control, visualization, and analysis of weather radar and lidar data, developed over 30 years at the U.S. Natio... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Hojeily, E., Lu, C. H., Alessandrini, S., Kim, J., Kumar, R., et al. (2026). Data fusion for fine-scale ozone mapping in the New York City metropolitan area using low-cost sensors and model information. Atmospheric Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.121805 Surface ozone (O3) exhibits spatiotemporal variability in the New York City metropolitan area (NYCMA) under the influence of complex mesoscale flows which transport O3 and its precursors. Fine-scale ambient air quality monitoring is critica... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Yang, F., Choi, K. O., Chandrakar, K. K., Hoffmann, F., Hou, P., et al. (2026). A model interrcomparison study to investigate mixing characteristics in non‐precipitating stratocumulus clouds. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005620 Recent aircraft observations of marine stratocumulus clouds consistently showed that cloud microphysical relationships vary with altitude, indicating inhomogeneous mixing characteristics near cloud top and homogeneous mixing characteristics... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The role of subcloud mesoscale convergence in sculpting convective updraft width and depth Marquis, J. N., Varble, A. C., Feng, Z., Gustafson, W. I., Morrison, H., et al. (2026). The role of subcloud mesoscale convergence in sculpting convective updraft width and depth. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-25-0179.1 The initiation of deep moist convection is governed in part by the horizontal width of updrafts near cloud base, which limits the deleterious effects of entrainment-driven dilution on buoyant thermals ascending through the free troposphere.... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ocasio, K. M. N., Dougherty, E. M., Xue, L., Moon, Z. L., Nunez, A., et al. (2026). Advancing weather and climate science in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean: a novel regional multiweek convection-permitting simulation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0023.1 Understanding the weather and climate of Mesoamerica and the Caribbean remains challenging due to complex hydroclimate interactions, limited observations, and poor representation of regional processes in global models. We introduce the Meso... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A regional atmospheric model using the spectral-element method Kim, J., Cho, H., Noh, I., Jang, J., Choi, S., et al. (2026). A regional atmospheric model using the spectral-element method. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0158.1 This paper introduces a limited-area version of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), whose global counterpart has been used operationally by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for weather forecasting since 2020. A central component... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Climate influences wildfire activity through opportunity: an event-scale perspective Coen, J. L.. (2026). Climate influences wildfire activity through opportunity: an event-scale perspective. Fire, doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9040164 Annual area burned correlates with temperature and fuel aridity, yet extreme wildfire outcomes arise from a small fraction of fires and rapid-growth days. This asymmetry indicates that thermodynamic favorability sets background susceptibili... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Broadening of adiabatic droplet spectra through eddy hopping: Polluted versus pristine environments Grabowski, W., Chandrakar, K. K., Morrison, H.. (2026). Broadening of adiabatic droplet spectra through eddy hopping: Polluted versus pristine environments. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-25-0148.1 The observed widths of droplet spectra in adiabatic volumes of natural clouds have been a conundrum in cloud physics from the early days of in situ cloud observations. Observed spectral widths are often in the range of 1–2 mm, whereas adiab... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO, DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Precipitation efficiency by storm type in km-scale climate simulations and satellite observations Kukulies, J., Prein, A., Done, J. M., Stansfield, A. M., Rios-Berrios, R.. (2026). Precipitation efficiency by storm type in km-scale climate simulations and satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044800 Precipitation efficiency (PE), the fraction of cloud condensate converted into surface precipitation, is a key metric for understanding Earth's hydroclimate but has been challenging to observe and evaluate in models. Using satellite-retriev... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Chung, K., Chang, C., Zhuang, B., Tsai, C., Lan, C., et al. (2026). Evaluate the impact of power-law scattering amplitude fitting on dual-polarization radar data assimilation – summertime cases study. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1551-2026 Different configurations within the observation operator cause dual-polarization radar parameters to exhibit various characteristics, which affect the structure of background error covariance as well as the results of data assimilation. Thr... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Predicting and projecting extreme precipitation in coastal cities with high-resolution modeling Prein, A., Lau, A., Shi, X., Chen, F., Xue, L., et al. (2026). Predicting and projecting extreme precipitation in coastal cities with high-resolution modeling. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0347.1 The Ninth Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling (CPCM) Workshop, Hong Kong, 2025 What: The ninth CPCM Workshop, hosted by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, brought together approximately 130 researchers from 22 countries ... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Bonan, G. B., Burns, S., Patton, E. G.. (2026). Beyond surface fluxes: Observational and computational needs of multilayer canopy models – A walnut orchard test case. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110960 Land surface models simulate fluxes exchanged between the land and atmosphere in weather and climate models. The prevailing modeling paradigm uses a big-leaf canopy parameterization that is not vertically-resolved. Multilayer canopy models ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Impact of GNSS RO data on the prediction of atmospheric river events: A ROMEX experiment Lin, H., Kuo, Y., Zhang, H., Braun, J. J., Liu, Z.. (2026). Impact of GNSS RO data on the prediction of atmospheric river events: A ROMEX experiment. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0151.1 The assimilation of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) data has been shown to improve the prediction of atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are key drivers of heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. This st... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Richter, J. H., Joseph, E., Arcodia, M. C., Berner, J., Demuth, J. L., et al. (2026). Earth system predictability across time scales for a resilient society: A research community perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0155.1 With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe, accelerating progress in Earth system predictability is urgently needed to deepen fundamental understanding, improve predictive tools, and provide reliable, actionable informati... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tang, W., Kumar, R., Méndez, A. d. M., Ahafianyo, F., Akinsanola, A. A., et al. (2026). The UCAR Africa Initiative: Recent insights, challenges, and opportunities to foster collaborative research for environmental sustainability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0118.1 Africa is increasingly being exposed to the negative impacts of climate and envi- ronmental change, while having less capacity to respond compared to other continents. The vulnerability partially results from unprecedented demographic growt... MMM Affiliations: PARC, WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Resolving convection doubles Sahel's contribution to global dust emission during the monsoon season Ying, T., Leung, D. M., Judt, F., Kok, J. F., Fairbanks, L., et al. (2026). Resolving convection doubles Sahel's contribution to global dust emission during the monsoon season. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL119842 Current climate models struggle to capture the mean state and variability of dust emissions. This is partially due to their inability to resolve convection, a consequence of their relatively coarse spatial resolution. Via analysis of output... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Assessing climate and air quality benefits of methane mitigation for U.S. landfills Folorunsho, A., Dudhia, J., Jiang, L., Yokochi, A., Li, Y.. (2026). Assessing climate and air quality benefits of methane mitigation for U.S. landfills. Journal of Environmental Management, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.128707 Landfills are an important component of the environment, serving as major sources of methane (CH4) and reactive trace gases that contribute to radiative forcing and modify atmospheric chemistry, making them a critical target for mitigation.... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions? Muñoz-Castro, E., Anderson, B. J., Astagneau, P. C., Swain, D. L., Mendoza, P. A., et al. (2026). How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026 Flood impacts can be enhanced when they occur shortly after droughts. Hydrological models are useful tools to better understand the underlying processes and mechanisms driving the response of floods occurring in close succession to streamfl... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A comprehensive description of the 1 August 2021 Azzano Decimo hailstorm in northeastern Italy Manzato, A., Knight, C., Kumjian, M. R., Stenni, B., Dreossi, G., et al. (2026). A comprehensive description of the 1 August 2021 Azzano Decimo hailstorm in northeastern Italy. Frontiers in Environmental Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1735866 On 1 August 2021, a vigorous hailstorm hit Azzano Decimo, in northeastern Italy. The supercell storm produced hailstones up to 10 cm in maximum dimension, which is quite unusual in this area. The storm's environment registered one of the la... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Zheng, Q., Sun, W., Liu, Z., Mao, J., He, J., et al. (2026). Direct assimilation of ground-based microwave radiometer observations with machine learning bias correction based on developments of RTTOV-gb v1.0 and WRFDA v4.5. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-731-2026 Abstract. The application of ground-based microwave radiometers (GMWRs), which provide high-quality and continuous vertical atmospheric observations, has traditionally focused on the indirect assimilation of retrieved profiles. This study a... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A unified theory for the global thunderstorm distribution and land–sea contrast Peters, J. M., Chavas, D. R., Su, C. Y., Murillo, E. M., Mullendore, G.. (2026). A unified theory for the global thunderstorm distribution and land–sea contrast. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120252 This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the ver... MMM Affiliations: WMR, MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Stratiform and anvil cloud-radiative forcing in tropical cyclogenesis Luschen, E., Ruppert, J., Rios-Berrios, R., Wu, S. N., Zhang, Y.. (2026). Stratiform and anvil cloud-radiative forcing in tropical cyclogenesis. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119765 Cloud-radiative forcing (CRF) has been suggested to accelerate tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, but we do not yet understand the role of convective-scale processes in this cloud-radiative feedback. We use a convection-permitting ensemble Weat... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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In situ observations of ice crystal chain aggregates in winter storms Nairy, C. M., Delene, D. J., Finlon, J. A., Yorks, J. E., Järvinen, E., et al. (2026). In situ observations of ice crystal chain aggregates in winter storms. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118365 Ice crystal chain aggregates—linear structures of conjoined monomer crystals—have previously been observed in strongly electrified deep convection, likely forming via electric-field-enhanced aggregation. The NASA Investigation of Microphysi... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Turbulent flow over isolated forested hills of varying shape and steepness Patton, E. G., Finnigan, J. J., Harman, I. N., Sullivan, P. P.. (2026). Turbulent flow over isolated forested hills of varying shape and steepness. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2025.10989 To advance understanding of the influence hill-slope and hill-shape have on neutrally stratified turbulent air flow over isolated forested hills, we interrogate four turbulence-resolving simulations. A spectrally friendly fringe technique e... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Potvin, C. K., Reames, L. J., Clark, A. J., Knopfmeier, K. H., Wang, Y., et al. (2026). Storm-based verification and intercomparison of forecasts during May and June 2023 from the HRRR, RRFS, NSSL MPAS, and C-SHiELD models. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0019.1 Most current convection-allowing models (CAMs) in the United States use one of three dynamical cores: the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model, the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) model, or the Mode... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Perspectives on systematic cloud microphysics scheme development with machine learning Lamb, K. D., Singer, C. E. E., Loftus, K., Morrison, H., Powell, M., et al. (2026). Perspectives on systematic cloud microphysics scheme development with machine learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005341 Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small-scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate m... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Swain, D. L., Stephens, J.. (2026). Wet‐to‐dry cascades may increasingly drive wildfire activity in non‐forested ecosystems, and further amplify the risk of urban interface fire disasters, in a warming climate. Global Change Biology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70681 This article explores how "hydroclimatic rebound" events—a rapid succession of anomalously wet periods followed by extreme dryness—increasingly drive catastrophic wildfire activity in non-forested ecosystems like grasslands and shrublands. ... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Duque, E. M., Huang, Y., Siems, S. T., Morrison, H., May, P. T.. (2025). Simulating closed-to-open mesoscale cellular convection over the Southern Ocean: Part I. Evaluation using SOCRATES and CAPRICORN observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044198 Understanding Earth's climate sensitivity remains a critical challenge for improving climate projections. Discrepancies between recent and previous generations of climate models highlight the need for better representation of low-level clou... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Duque, E. M., Huang, Y., Siems, S. T., Morrison, H., May, P. T.. (2025). Simulating closed-to-open mesoscale cellular convection over the Southern Ocean: Part II. Perturbed physics experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044199 Accurate representation of mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) cloud morphology over the Southern Ocean is essential for improving climate model parametrizations and reducing projection uncertainties given their highly variable radiative im... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Role of diurnal cycle of insolation on the MJO propagation in the Maritime Continent Zhou, X., Ray, P., Dudhia, J., Hagos, S., Johnson, N. C., et al. (2025). Role of diurnal cycle of insolation on the MJO propagation in the Maritime Continent. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044257 The diurnal cycle of convection in the Maritime Continent (MC) has been hypothesized to act as a barrier to the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). To test this hypothesis, we use a regional model with realistic MJO... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Dampening of the precipitation response to aerosol pollution from turbulence in cumulus clouds Chandrakar, K. K., Morrison, H.. (2025). Dampening of the precipitation response to aerosol pollution from turbulence in cumulus clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118693 Using aircraft observations and a cloud model with particle-based microphysics, it is shown that the enhancement of drop collision-coalescence from turbulence in clouds not only leads to earlier onset of rain in warm cumulus clouds as past ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP): An overview Pan, L. L., Atlas, E. L., Newman, P. A., Thornberry, T., Jucks, K. W., et al. (2025). The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP): An overview. , doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044417 The Asian summer monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project is centered on a large airborne field campaign investigating the role the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) plays in changing the atmospheric composition in the upper troposphere and low... MMM Affiliations: WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms Zhang, Z., Prein, A., He, C., Liu, C., Miguez-Macho, G., et al. (2025). Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03089-0 The US Corn Belt is among the world’s most productive agricultural regions and a global hotspot for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which supply vital growing season rainfall but also drive hazardous flooding. While evapotranspiration ... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Yorks, J. E., Miller, M. A., Lang, T. J., Finlon, J. A., Adams, I. S., et al. (2025). Sampling strategies to optimize coincident remote sensing and in situ cloud and precipitation observations from multiple aircraft. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0280.1 The combination of simultaneous, collocated aircraft in situ measurements and remote sensing data at multiple wavelengths is of tremendous value in physical process studies but is hard to obtain in practice. Appropriate multiaircraft and mu... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The CMA global atmospheric reanalysis version 1.5 (CRA1.5) Zhang, T., Zhou, Z., Liu, Z., Shi, C., Yao, S., et al. (2025). The CMA global atmospheric reanalysis version 1.5 (CRA1.5). Journal of Meteorological Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-5112-3 Atmospheric reanalysis is a process that utilizes numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and data assimilation systems to integrate historical meteorological observations, thereby reconstructing datasets that represent past atmospheric s... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Nystrom, R. G., Snyder, C., Liu, Z., Jung, B., Ban, J., et al. (2025). A hybrid four‐dimensional variational data assimilation system for the model for prediction across scales (MPAS‐atmosphere): Leveraging the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005183 A global Four-Dimensional Ensemble Variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system for the Atmospheric component of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-A) is presented that uses the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JE... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ng, M., Schumacher, A., Herbert, N., Wong‐Parodi, G., Ram, N., et al. (2025). Examining the temporal dynamics of risk communication during extreme weather events: Insights from a scoping review. Risk Analysis, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70135 As extreme weather events unfold on a timescale of minutes, hours, or days, individuals must respond accordingly. Dynamic risk communication —that is, risk communication that updates alongside evolving risks—can support individuals in maki... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Dynamics of downdrafts around a growing convective cloud Pardo, L. H., Morrison, H., Possner, A.. (2025). Dynamics of downdrafts around a growing convective cloud. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044236 We examine the dynamics of cloud-edge downdrafts over the growth phase of isolated cumuli, combining Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses. As in previous studies, our results show that growing cumuli are surrounded by downdrafts linked to cloud... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence Chang, P., Fu, D., Liu, X., Castruccio, F., Prein, A., et al. (2025). Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence. Nature Geoscience, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01859-1 Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. ... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Impacts of northerly low-level jets on Mesoscale Convective Systems East of the Andes Mu, Y., Jones, C., Carvalho, L. M., Kukulies, J., Prein, A., et al. (2025). Impacts of northerly low-level jets on Mesoscale Convective Systems East of the Andes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043842 Low-level jets (LLJs) play a critical role in moisture transport, vertical motion enhancement, and orographic lifting, frequently leading to deep, organized convection formation in South America. This study examines the impacts of three typ... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sun, T., Guerrette, J., Liu, Z., Ban, J., Jung, B., et al. (2025). All-sky AMSU-A radiance data assimilation using the gain-form of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter within MPAS-JEDI-2.1.0: Implementation, tuning, and evaluation. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8569-2025 Abstract. The Gain-form of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LGETKF) has been implemented in the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) with the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) (i.e., MPAS-JEDI)... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Cholette, M., Milbrandt, J. A., Morrison, H., Thériault, J. M., Lim, K. S., et al. (2025). Simulation of wet snow during winter orographic precipitation using the predicted particle properties (P3) microphysics scheme. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-25-0017.1 Forecasting winter precipitation types and their transitions is challenging because the type can vary (e.g., rain, snow, freezing rain, ice pellets, wet snow, graupel) and multiple phases can be involved. In this study, simulations of snow,... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Axisymmetric analysis of tornado-like vortices in simulated supercells Rotunno, R., Markowski, P. M.. (2025). Axisymmetric analysis of tornado-like vortices in simulated supercells. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-25-0086.1 Present-day simulations of supercell thunderstorms have high resolution and incorporate the physical processes known to be conducive to simulating tornado-like vortices (TLVs). In such supercell simulations, TLVs are identified by the stren... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Seasonal forecasting of precipitation-relevant weather types over the United States Towler, E. L., Done, J. M., Ge, M., Gilleland, E., Prein, A.. (2025). Seasonal forecasting of precipitation-relevant weather types over the United States. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-24-0230.1 This paper evaluates seasonal forecasts of weather types (WTs), i.e., recurring large-scale atmospheric patterns, which have been developed using a clustering method using large-scale predictors to represent precipitation variability across... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Morrison, H., Ma, P. L., Geiss, A., Igel, A. L., Hu, A. Z., et al. (2025). Impacts of bulk microphysics scheme structural choices on simulations of rain initiation through drop coalescence. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005026 This study examines how different structural choices in bulk microphysics schemes impact the simulation of warm rain initiation. A single liquid category (SLC) approach prognosing up to four moments of a single drop size distribution (DSD) ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Vagasky, H. C., Adams-Selin, R. D., Bang, S. D., Heymsfield, A. J., Bansemer, A. R.. (2025). The sensitivity of falling hail to different melting and terminal velocity parameterizations and environmental conditions. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0180.1 The processes that dictate hail melt and hail terminal velocity are complex, poorly understood, and important to the characteristics of the hail that ultimately reaches the ground. Multiple parameterizations describing hail melt and termina... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Xiao, X., Sun, J., Xu, C., Ying, Z., Li, J., et al. (2025). Initiation of a record-breaking rainfall event in Beijing, China, associated with a penetrating inland sea-breeze front. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0194.1 In summer, many sea-breeze fronts (SBFs) are observed propagating from the sea to inland areas. However, there has been an absence of in-depth studies on whether and how these SBFs alone initiate convection initiation (CI) inland. We select... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Zheng, M., Ralph, F. M., Tallapragada, V., Wilson, A. M., Babbitt, S. H., et al. (2025). Atmospheric River Reconnaissance: Mission planning, execution, and incorporation of operational and science objectives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0160.1 Accurate forecasting of atmospheric river (AR) landfall is vital for western U.S. water management and flood risk mitigation. To address observation gaps and improve forecasts, the AR Reconnaissance (AR Recon) program was created as a resea... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Herbert, N., Ng, M., Demuth, J. L., Schumacher, A., Walpole, H., et al. (2025). How self-efficacy and response efficacy change with risk and adaptation behaviors during tropical cyclones. Journal of Environmental Psychology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102781 Environmental hazards are made worse in a changing climate, and adaptation may hinge on whether individuals can effectively act. One of the most powerful antecedents to personal action is efficacy (self and response), but past research on e... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Wirz, C. D., Demuth, J. L., Prestley, R., Morss, R. E., Joslyn, S. L., et al. (2025). Southeastern U.S. residents' perceptions and responses to evolving probabilistic tornado forecasts and warnings. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0086.1 In this study, we examine how individuals perceive and respond to probabilistic tornado information that evolves across different space and time scales. We conducted 36 structured in-person interviews in July of 2024 with residents of the s... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Judt, F., Rios-Berrios, R.. (2025). Sensitivity of tropical wave structure to resolution and convection treatment in a global non-hydrostatic model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, doi:https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2025-036 Tropical waves shape weather across equatorial regions, yet their representation in global models remains a for-midable challenge. This study investigates how model fidelity depends on two key factors: horizontal resolution (120 km to 3.75 ... MMM Affiliations: WMR, DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Allwayin, N., Miller, D. J., Chandrakar, K. K., Larsen, M. L., Shaw, R. A.. (2025). Investigating characteristic droplet size distributions in large eddy simulations of stratocumulus clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116021 Cloud processes relevant to radiative and precipitation properties depend on the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution. Recent holographic observations revealed that cloud droplet populations do not have the same size distribution sh... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Fitzgerald, N., Hudson, C., Wshah, S., Heymsfield, A. J., Marshall, J. S.. (2025). Knowledge-guided machine learning for shape parameter and drag coefficient prediction of falling snowflakes. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/aies-d-24-0059.1 A novel knowledge-guided convolutional neural network (KGCNN) is presented in this work for the prediction of various three-dimensional shape parameters, drag coefficient, mass, and density of falling snowflakes. To compensate for the lack ... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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FLEE 2.0: An improved agent-based model of hurricane evacuations Harris, A., Morss, R. E., Davis, C. A., Roebber, P., Boehnert, J. M. R.. (2025). FLEE 2.0: An improved agent-based model of hurricane evacuations. Weather, Climate, and Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-24-0112.1 For this study, we present and evaluate an improved agent-based modeling framework, the Forecasting Laboratory for Exploring the Evacuation-system, version 2.0 (FLEE 2.0), designed to investigate relationships between hurricane forecast unc... MMM Affiliations: PARC, MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Rios-Berrios, R., Emanuel, K., Bryan, G. H., Medeiros, B., Done, J. M.. (2025). Response of tropical climate and extreme precipitation to ocean temperature in convection-permitting aquaplanet simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005119 Tropical climate and weather systems are integral to the global hydrological cycle. Yet, their detected and projected trends are highly uncertain in part due to shortcomings of Earth system models. This study uses novel aquaplanet simulatio... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Huusko, L., Mukha, T., Donati, L. L., Sullivan, P. P., Schlatter, P., et al. (2025). Large eddy simulation of canonical atmospheric boundary layer flows with the spectral element method in Nek5000. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005233 Simulation of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is challenging due to the wide range of turbulent scales in the flow. To leverage the currently available computational power for high-resolution simulation of atmospheric tur... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Response of African easterly waves to a warming climate: A convection-permitting approach Ocasio, K. M. N., Dougherty, E. M., Moon, Z. L., Davis, C. A.. (2025). Response of African easterly waves to a warming climate: A convection-permitting approach. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005146 As the atmosphere warms, tropical cyclones (TCs) and their precursors, like African easterly waves (AEWs), will respond. While TC changes in a warmer climate have been studied, AEW evolution remains uncertain. Using a novel storm-resolving ... MMM Affiliations: MMMAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Effect of orography on deep convection initiation produced by two sea-breeze fronts Antonelli, M., Rotunno, R.. (2025). Effect of orography on deep convection initiation produced by two sea-breeze fronts. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-24-0254.1 In this study, large-eddy simulations (LESs) of converging sea breezes over a peninsula are performed to investigate the effect of its orography on the ability of the model to simulate an observed event of deep convection initiation and, mo... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Prestley, R., Morss, R. E., Majumdar, S. J., McNoldy, B., Millet, B., et al. (2025). Redrawing risks: How professional users interpret and use an iteratively redesigned hurricane threats and impacts graphic. Weather, Climate, and Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-25-0069.1 The National Weather Service and other weather industry partners increasingly use Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) graphics to communicate the breadth of hazards and impacts associated with tropical cyclones. However, HTI graphics are of... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Synoptic modulation of the West African coastal atmosphere and mesoscale convective systems Sakaeda, N., Wu, S. N., Rios-Berrios, R., Martin, E., Ocasio, K. M. N., et al. (2025). Synoptic modulation of the West African coastal atmosphere and mesoscale convective systems. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0281.1 This study uses high-resolution airborne data from the NASA Convective Process Experiments–Cabo Verde field campaign to examine the effects of synoptic conditions on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the western coastal waters of Wes... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Schwartz, C. S., Bresch, J., Lupo, K., Ban, J., Guerrette, J., et al. (2025). A first step toward global ensemble-based data assimilation at convection-allowing scales using MPAS and JEDI. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-24-0155.1 Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) interfaced with the Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) software, we performed four global three-dimensional ensemble–variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation (DA) experim... MMM Affiliations: PARC, WMR Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Severe weather in a changing climate (3rd edition) Buckley, B., Done, J. M., Henson, R. T., Turner, K., Chan, P., et al. (2025). Severe weather in a changing climate (3rd edition). , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/2cy6-r178 This third edition integrates new insights from Australian universities, government agencies, and insurance data, alongside recent national and international research, including the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Since the 2020 release, co... Publication Genre: Technical Report View on OpenSky |
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Toedtli, S. S., Leonard, A., McKeon, B.. (2025). Coupled dynamics of wall pressure and transpiration, with implications for the modelling of tailored surfaces and turbulent drag reduction. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2025.10532 Wall-based active and passive flow control for drag reduction in low-Reynolds-number (Re) turbulent flows can lead to three typical phenomena: (i) attenuation or (ii) amplification of the near-wall cycle, and (iii) generation of spanwise ro... MMM Affiliations: PARC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Large‐eddy simulation of the spray‐laden hurricane boundary layer: I. Spray transport and statistics Richter, D. H., Bryan, G. H., Dennis, J. M., Sun, J., Mickelson, S.. (2025). Large‐eddy simulation of the spray‐laden hurricane boundary layer: I. Spray transport and statistics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044054 For decades, theoretical, observational, numerical, and experimental efforts have sought to quantify the behavior of sea spray in the high-wind boundary layer. A persistent problem, however, is that it is notoriously difficult to examine sp... MMM Affiliations: DPM Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |