Events (Upcoming & Past)

Past MMM Events

Special Day, Time, and LocationSpeaker: Brenda PhilipsAffiliation: University of Massachusetts, Amherst 

When people receive a hazard warning and decide to take protective action, such as sheltering in place, avoiding flooded roads, or protecting property, that decision is not made all at once. Theoretical and empirical research has demonstrated that individuals go through a process that involves receiving the warning, understanding the warning, personalizing the risk, and then taking protective action. Personalizing the risk, the expectation of personal impacts to self, family, property and daily activities, is a critical component of the protective action decision-making process. While hazards research focuses on the cognitive and emotional dimensions of personalization, there is also an important spatial and temporal component. Home, work, and areas of daily activity are physical locations that can be mapped over time to create individual mobility patterns, or footprints. Research in mobility patterns shows that people are creatures of habit and their mobility patterns are largely predictable. If we can predict people’s location and activities at different times of the day, why not use that information for weather alerts and warnings?

This talk will present exploratory research on the potential benefits of incorporating individual footprints into the severe weather warning systems for tornados, flash floods and severe thunderstorms. Our exploratory research examines the potential of warning people based on their individual perceptions and contexts, and how the complexity of human perception and response can be incorporated operationally into warning system technology. Advances in high resolution weather sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT), mobility-enabled Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and high levels of mobile phone usage makes these individualized warnings possible.

This research uses an innovative, multidisciplinary living lab infrastructure located in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex in north Texas to explore individualized warning. The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Living Lab for Severe Weather is a sensors-to-human warning system infrastructure where research can be conducted during live severe weather events with stakeholders and the general public. As part of this research platform, we have created a mobile phone app called CASA Alerts that delivers real-time, user-driven weather alerts to the public. The app also functions as a tool for conducting cross-sectional and longitudinal research on human behavior, perception and response.

Refreshments: 1:45 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Please note location)
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Wednesday, June 13, 2018 - 2:00am to 3:00am

Special Day, Time, and Location
Speaker: Brenda Philips
Affiliation: University of Massachusetts, Amherst 

When people receive a hazard warning and decide to take protective action, such as sheltering in place, avoiding flooded roads, or protecting property, that decision is not made all at once. Theoretical and empirical research has demonstrated that individuals go through a process that involves receiving the warning, understanding the warning, personalizing the risk, and then taking protective action. Personalizing the risk, the expectation of personal impacts to self, family, property and daily activities, is a critical component of the protective action decision-making process. While hazards research focuses on the cognitive and emotional dimensions of personalization, there is also an important spatial and temporal component. Home, work, and areas of daily activity are physical locations that can be mapped over time to create individual mobility patterns, or footprints. Research in mobility patterns shows that people are creatures of habit and their mobility patterns are largely predictable. If we can predict people’s location and activities at different times of the day, why not use that information for weather alerts and warnings?

This talk will present exploratory research on the potential benefits of incorporating individual footprints into the severe weather warning systems for tornados, flash floods and severe thunderstorms. Our exploratory research examines the potential of warning people based on their individual perceptions and contexts, and how the complexity of human perception and response can be incorporated operationally into warning system technology. Advances in high resolution weather sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT), mobility-enabled Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and high levels of mobile phone usage makes these individualized warnings possible.

This research uses an innovative, multidisciplinary living lab infrastructure located in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex in north Texas to explore individualized warning. The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Living Lab for Severe Weather is a sensors-to-human warning system infrastructure where research can be conducted during live severe weather events with stakeholders and the general public. As part of this research platform, we have created a mobile phone app called CASA Alerts that delivers real-time, user-driven weather alerts to the public. The app also functions as a tool for conducting cross-sectional and longitudinal research on human behavior, perception and response.

Refreshments: 1:45 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Please note location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Tuesday, June 12, 2018 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Rescheduled Date from June 14, 2018 Speaker: Michael Ek Affiliation: NCAR/RAL/JNT

Local land-atmosphere coupling involves the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and in turn with the free atmosphere above.  Initiation of fair-weather cumulus requires an increase in relative humidity at the ABL top, and depends on a number of processes, some opposing each other.  Those processes include the evolution of surface fluxes, sub-surface heat and moisture transport, surface-layer turbulence, boundary-layer development, and warm- and dry-air entrainment into the ABL from the free atmosphere above.  Following an analytical development, we use modeling and observational data sets to examine this question.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Prof. Christopher RufAffiliation: University of Michigan

The CYGNSS constellation of eight satellites was successfully launched on 15 December 2016 into a low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit. Each satellite carries a four-channel bistatic radar receiver which measures GPS signals scattered by the ocean, from which ocean surface roughness, near surface wind speed and air-sea latent heat flux, and land surface soil moisture and flood inundation are estimated. The measurements are unique in several respects, most notably in their ability to penetrate through all levels of precipitation, made possible by the low frequency at which GPS operates, and in the frequent sampling of extreme weather events and complete sampling of the diurnal cycle, made possible by the large number of satellites. Engineering commissioning of the constellation was successfully completed in March 2017 and the mission is currently in its science operations phase.

Level 2 science data products have been developed for near surface (10 m referenced) ocean wind speed, ocean surface roughness (mean square slope) and latent heat flux. Level 3 gridded versions of the L2 products have also been developed. A set of Level 4 products have also been developed specifically for direct tropical cyclone overpasses. These include the storm intensity (peak sustained winds) and size (radius of maximum winds), its extent (34, 50 and 64 knot wind radii), and its integrated kinetic energy. Assimilation of CYGNSS L2 wind speed data into the HWRF hurricane weather prediction model has also been developed.  Measurements over land demonstrate sensitivity to near-surface soil moisture and the ability to image flood inundation.

An overview and the current status of the mission will be presented, together with highlights of on-orbit performance and recent scientific results.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, June 8, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

Speaker: Prof. Christopher Ruf
Affiliation: University of Michigan

The CYGNSS constellation of eight satellites was successfully launched on 15 December 2016 into a low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit. Each satellite carries a four-channel bistatic radar receiver which measures GPS signals scattered by the ocean, from which ocean surface roughness, near surface wind speed and air-sea latent heat flux, and land surface soil moisture and flood inundation are estimated. The measurements are unique in several respects, most notably in their ability to penetrate through all levels of precipitation, made possible by the low frequency at which GPS operates, and in the frequent sampling of extreme weather events and complete sampling of the diurnal cycle, made possible by the large number of satellites. Engineering commissioning of the constellation was successfully completed in March 2017 and the mission is currently in its science operations phase.

Level 2 science data products have been developed for near surface (10 m referenced) ocean wind speed, ocean surface roughness (mean square slope) and latent heat flux. Level 3 gridded versions of the L2 products have also been developed. A set of Level 4 products have also been developed specifically for direct tropical cyclone overpasses. These include the storm intensity (peak sustained winds) and size (radius of maximum winds), its extent (34, 50 and 64 knot wind radii), and its integrated kinetic energy. Assimilation of CYGNSS L2 wind speed data into the HWRF hurricane weather prediction model has also been developed.  Measurements over land demonstrate sensitivity to near-surface soil moisture and the ability to image flood inundation.

An overview and the current status of the mission will be presented, together with highlights of on-orbit performance and recent scientific results.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, June 7, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Morris WeismanAffiliation: NCAR/MMM 

Over the past three years, NCAR/MMM has offered access to 48-h forecasts from an experimental 10-member convection-allowing (3-km) ensemble based on the WRF-ARW model, using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble Kalman filter approach to produce perturbations for the model initial state. These forecasts have offered new insights into the potential predictability of hazardous convective weather events such as supercells, derechos, and flash flooding, as well as helping to refine the use of ensemble probabilistic guidance for such forecast applications. In this talk, I will review examples of extreme convective events for which forecasts were significantly improved by the use of such a high-resolution ensemble but will also highlight some of the more systematic forecast limitations that were noted over the course of this experiment. One of the more common failure modes was a tendency for the forecast convection to be somewhat north of the observed convection. There was also a tendency for the entire ensemble to be significantly and consistently wrong for the bigger forecast busts. The lack of sufficient ensemble spread for such cases is still under investigation.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, May 25, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

Speaker: Morris Weisman
Affiliation: NCAR/MMM 

Over the past three years, NCAR/MMM has offered access to 48-h forecasts from an experimental 10-member convection-allowing (3-km) ensemble based on the WRF-ARW model, using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble Kalman filter approach to produce perturbations for the model initial state. These forecasts have offered new insights into the potential predictability of hazardous convective weather events such as supercells, derechos, and flash flooding, as well as helping to refine the use of ensemble probabilistic guidance for such forecast applications. In this talk, I will review examples of extreme convective events for which forecasts were significantly improved by the use of such a high-resolution ensemble but will also highlight some of the more systematic forecast limitations that were noted over the course of this experiment. One of the more common failure modes was a tendency for the forecast convection to be somewhat north of the observed convection. There was also a tendency for the entire ensemble to be significantly and consistently wrong for the bigger forecast busts. The lack of sufficient ensemble spread for such cases is still under investigation.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, May 24, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Kevin E. TrenberthAffiliation: NCAR/ACOM/CGD

Yes and no!  Hurricanes are certainly natural, but human-caused climate change is supercharging them, and unbridled growth is exacerbating risk of major damages. The Earth's energy imbalance is caused by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and its partitioning between atmospheric, ocean, cryosphere and land heat reservoirs govern the rate at which the global climate evolves.  Most of the imbalance, over 90%, goes into the ocean and accordingly ocean heat content (OHC) provides a primary indicator of climate change, along with sea level rise.  2017 was the warmest year on record for the global OHC down to 2000 m depth.  It fuels storms of all sorts and contributes to very heavy rain events and flooding.  The observed increases of upper OHC supports higher sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture, and fuels tropical storms to become more intense, bigger and longer lasting, thereby increasing their potential for damage.  At the same time sea level is also steadily rising, increasing risks from coastal storm surges.  These climatic changes are taking place against a background of growing habitation along coasts, which further increases the risk storms pose to life and property.  The damage and loss of life from such storms does not have to be disastrous, however, if there is adequate preparation through better building codes, drainage systems, shelters, and evacuation plans.   We have the options of stopping or slowing climate change from humans, and/or adapting to and planning for the consequences, but we are not doing enough of either!  Harvey in Houston, Irma in the Caribbean and Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are excellent cases in point of the tragedy of global warming.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, May 18, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

Speaker: Kevin E. Trenberth
Affiliation: NCAR/ACOM/CGD

Yes and no!  Hurricanes are certainly natural, but human-caused climate change is supercharging them, and unbridled growth is exacerbating risk of major damages. The Earth's energy imbalance is caused by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and its partitioning between atmospheric, ocean, cryosphere and land heat reservoirs govern the rate at which the global climate evolves.  Most of the imbalance, over 90%, goes into the ocean and accordingly ocean heat content (OHC) provides a primary indicator of climate change, along with sea level rise.  2017 was the warmest year on record for the global OHC down to 2000 m depth.  It fuels storms of all sorts and contributes to very heavy rain events and flooding.  The observed increases of upper OHC supports higher sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture, and fuels tropical storms to become more intense, bigger and longer lasting, thereby increasing their potential for damage.  At the same time sea level is also steadily rising, increasing risks from coastal storm surges.  These climatic changes are taking place against a background of growing habitation along coasts, which further increases the risk storms pose to life and property.  The damage and loss of life from such storms does not have to be disastrous, however, if there is adequate preparation through better building codes, drainage systems, shelters, and evacuation plans.   We have the options of stopping or slowing climate change from humans, and/or adapting to and planning for the consequences, but we are not doing enough of either!  Harvey in Houston, Irma in the Caribbean and Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are excellent cases in point of the tragedy of global warming.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, May 17, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Manfred WendischAffiliation: University of Leipzig, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig, Germany

Within the last 25 years a remarkable increase of the Arctic near–surface air temperature exceeding the global warming by a factor of two to three has been observed. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as Arctic Amplification. The Arctic climate has several unique features, for example, the mostly low solar elevation, regularly occurring polar day and night, high surface albedo, large sea ice covered areas, an often shallow atmospheric boundary layer, and the frequent abundance of low–level mixed–phase clouds. These characteristics influence the physical and bio–geochemical processes (such as feedback mechanisms of water vapor, clouds, temperature, and lapse–rate), atmospheric composition (trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation), as well as meteorological (including energy fluxes) and surface parameters. In addition, meridional atmospheric and oceanic transports and exchanges between ocean, troposphere, and stratosphere largely control the Arctic climate. Although many individual consequences of changes in the above parameters and processes are known, their combined influence and relative importance for Arctic Amplification are complicated to quantify and difficult to disentangle. As a result, there is no consensus about the mechanisms dominating Arctic Amplification.

To improve this situation the scientific expertise and competency of several German research institutes and three universities are combined in the framework of the Transregional Collaborative Research Centre TR 172. Observations from instrumentation on satellites, aircraft, tethered balloons, research vessels, and a selected set of ground–based sites are being integrated in dedicated campaigns and long–term measurements. The field studies are conducted in different seasons and meteorological conditions, covering a suitably wide range of spatial and temporal scales. They are performed in an international context and in close collaboration with modelling activities.

In particular the presentation will investigate the role of clouds in the Arctic climate system focusing on their radiative effects. Results of the recent, combined field campaigns ACLOUD and PASCAL will be discussed. The measurement strategy, major instrumentation and highlight topics of the preliminary data analysis are presented. These topics include (i) the multi-mode structure of the terrestrial and solar radiative budget below mixed-phase clouds and respective comparisons with high-resolution simulations with the current numerical weather prediction model operationally used by the German Weather Service, (ii) the radiative forcing of low-level clouds from airborne observations, (iii) aerosol, cloud and precipitation measurements, as well as resulting scientific questions.

Refreshments: 3:15

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, May 11, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

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