Influence of region-dependent error growth on the predictability of track and intensity of Typhoon Chan-hom (2020) in high-resolution HWRF ensembles
Feng, J., Judt, F., Zhang, J., Wang, X.. (2024). Influence of region-dependent error growth on the predictability of track and intensity of Typhoon Chan-hom (2020) in high-resolution HWRF ensembles. Atmospheric Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107536
| Title | Influence of region-dependent error growth on the predictability of track and intensity of Typhoon Chan-hom (2020) in high-resolution HWRF ensembles |
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| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | J. Feng, Falko Judt, J. Zhang, X. Wang |
| Abstract | Enhancing the predictive capabilities for tropical cyclones (TCs) necessitates comprehensive investigations into their predictability. This study employs convection-allowing ensemble forecasts using the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model, integrating perturbed initial conditions to examine error growth and initial condition error-related predictability (IE-predictability) of TCs. Distinctively, our research concentrates on how the predictability of TC track and intensity is influenced by initial errors in various zones: (1) the inner core and outer rainbands (0-350 km), (2) the near environment (350–1300 km), and (3) the far environment (1300-3500 km). Contrary to many prior studies, our findings suggest that the most critical region for initial errors affecting TC track forecasts is within the TC inner structures. For Typhoon Chan-hom (2020), characterized by significant track forecast discrepancies, the initial inaccuracies in the inner core and outer rainbands substantially affect the TC's proximate environment and track, more so than errors in the near and far environments. Regarding TC intensity, the inner core emerges as the most sensitive area. The surface wind configuration of the TC inner core at larger scales (wavenumbers 0–2) maintains predictability for over three days, whereas its structure at finer scales is only predictable for a few hours. |
| Publication Title | Atmospheric Research |
| Publication Date | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107536 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qz2g8f |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| MMM Affiliations | WMR |