Tornado Watch Probabilities in Practice: Performance, Trust, and Use Among Emergency Managers
Dunham, V., Krocak, M. J., Prestley, R.. (2025). Tornado Watch Probabilities in Practice: Performance, Trust, and Use Among Emergency Managers. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/m0tk-m504
| Title | Tornado Watch Probabilities in Practice: Performance, Trust, and Use Among Emergency Managers |
|---|---|
| Genre | Manuscript |
| Author(s) | Vanessa Dunham, M. J. Krocak, Robert Prestley |
| Abstract | Probabilistic information in forecasts was long thought to be too confusing for the public and other key stakeholders. As such, it was not included in many forecasts. However, research over the last twenty years has shown that including probabilistic information increases trust and understanding in forecast information, especially among emergency managers who now see probabilistic information as very important to their operations. Since April 28, 2006, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has officially included two probabilities in tornado watches: the probability of two or more tornadoes occurring in a tornado watch, and the probability of one or more strong (EF2+) tornadoes occurring in a tornado watch. Despite these probabilities being in place for almost twenty years, little to no research has been conducted to understand how these probabilities perform, or how stakeholders, such as emergency managers, utilize these probabilities in their operations. Utilizing tornado watch and tornado report data, we see that tornado watch probabilities perform very well, with some slight variations in time and area. With this information in mind, we seek to understand how emergency managers apply tornado watch probabilities in their operations through the Severe Weather and Emergency Management survey. |
| Publication Title | |
| Publication Date | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.5065/m0tk-m504 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7dn49hc |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| MMM Affiliations | PARC |