Weather Risk Analysis and Decision-Making (WRAD)

Understanding the weather-human interface to improve predictions of hazardous weather and reduce impacts from it 

The Weather Risk Analysis and Decision-Making (WRAD) research group improves weather predictions and reduces weather-related negative impacts through theoretically driven, empirical research. We employ interdisciplinary and convergence research approaches to understand and improve hazardous weather risk communication, risk perceptions, and decision making. We partner with and study professional decision-makers (weather forecasters, public officials, broadcast meteorologists, etc.) and members of the public, and we collaborate deeply with a wide range of researchers, practitioners, and policymakers. Our research intersects with atmospheric science observations, numerical weather prediction modeling, and AI/ML modeling efforts, across multiple types of hazardous weather (hurricanes, flooding, winter weather, tornadoes, fire weather, etc.).

Research Themes

 

User-informed research to identify critical needs for improved weather predictions and forecast information

We conduct research with professional decision-makers and members of the public to understand their dynamic decision contexts when threatened by hazardous weather. This includes investigating how people’s forecast information use, interpretations, and decision-making evolve over time. This research reveals critical forecast needs to help inform and prioritize weather prediction research efforts and to improve forecast information. 

 

Innovative approaches to addressing pressing gaps in observations of the human system during hazardous weather events 

We develop new methods and tools for collecting, curating, analyzing, and sharing ephemeral and dynamic observations of people in real-time. We also develop new approaches for integrating these observations with relevant meteorological data and other types of human systems data. 

 

Foundational and theoretical research on risk communication and decision making

We leverage a wide range of literature, methods, and analytic techniques to answer foundational science questions that develop and advance theory of how humans approach and manage hazardous weather risks and risk information. 

 

Who We Are

Mariana Cains

Julie Demuth

Rebecca Morss

Robert Prestley

Andrea Schumacher

Christopher Wirz

Founding group member (deceased): Heather Lazrus