Events (Upcoming & Past)

Upcoming MMM Events

Special Day, Time, and Location
Speaker: Brenda Philips
Affiliation: University of Massachusetts, Amherst 

When people receive a hazard warning and decide to take protective action, such as sheltering in place, avoiding flooded roads, or protecting property, that decision is not made all at once. Theoretical and empirical research has demonstrated that individuals go through a process that involves receiving the warning, understanding the warning, personalizing the risk, and then taking protective action. Personalizing the risk, the expectation of personal impacts to self, family, property and daily activities, is a critical component of the protective action decision-making process. While hazards research focuses on the cognitive and emotional dimensions of personalization, there is also an important spatial and temporal component. Home, work, and areas of daily activity are physical locations that can be mapped over time to create individual mobility patterns, or footprints. Research in mobility patterns shows that people are creatures of habit and their mobility patterns are largely predictable. If we can predict people’s location and activities at different times of the day, why not use that information for weather alerts and warnings?

This talk will present exploratory research on the potential benefits of incorporating individual footprints into the severe weather warning systems for tornados, flash floods and severe thunderstorms. Our exploratory research examines the potential of warning people based on their individual perceptions and contexts, and how the complexity of human perception and response can be incorporated operationally into warning system technology. Advances in high resolution weather sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT), mobility-enabled Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and high levels of mobile phone usage makes these individualized warnings possible.

This research uses an innovative, multidisciplinary living lab infrastructure located in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex in north Texas to explore individualized warning. The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Living Lab for Severe Weather is a sensors-to-human warning system infrastructure where research can be conducted during live severe weather events with stakeholders and the general public. As part of this research platform, we have created a mobile phone app called CASA Alerts that delivers real-time, user-driven weather alerts to the public. The app also functions as a tool for conducting cross-sectional and longitudinal research on human behavior, perception and response.

Refreshments: 1:45 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Please note location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Tuesday, June 12, 2018 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Rescheduled Date from June 14, 2018
Speaker: Michael Ek
Affiliation: NCAR/RAL/JNT

Local land-atmosphere coupling involves the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and in turn with the free atmosphere above.  Initiation of fair-weather cumulus requires an increase in relative humidity at the ABL top, and depends on a number of processes, some opposing each other.  Those processes include the evolution of surface fluxes, sub-surface heat and moisture transport, surface-layer turbulence, boundary-layer development, and warm- and dry-air entrainment into the ABL from the free atmosphere above.  Following an analytical development, we use modeling and observational data sets to examine this question.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Prof. Christopher Ruf
Affiliation: University of Michigan

The CYGNSS constellation of eight satellites was successfully launched on 15 December 2016 into a low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit. Each satellite carries a four-channel bistatic radar receiver which measures GPS signals scattered by the ocean, from which ocean surface roughness, near surface wind speed and air-sea latent heat flux, and land surface soil moisture and flood inundation are estimated. The measurements are unique in several respects, most notably in their ability to penetrate through all levels of precipitation, made possible by the low frequency at which GPS operates, and in the frequent sampling of extreme weather events and complete sampling of the diurnal cycle, made possible by the large number of satellites. Engineering commissioning of the constellation was successfully completed in March 2017 and the mission is currently in its science operations phase.

Level 2 science data products have been developed for near surface (10 m referenced) ocean wind speed, ocean surface roughness (mean square slope) and latent heat flux. Level 3 gridded versions of the L2 products have also been developed. A set of Level 4 products have also been developed specifically for direct tropical cyclone overpasses. These include the storm intensity (peak sustained winds) and size (radius of maximum winds), its extent (34, 50 and 64 knot wind radii), and its integrated kinetic energy. Assimilation of CYGNSS L2 wind speed data into the HWRF hurricane weather prediction model has also been developed.  Measurements over land demonstrate sensitivity to near-surface soil moisture and the ability to image flood inundation.

An overview and the current status of the mission will be presented, together with highlights of on-orbit performance and recent scientific results.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, June 7, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Michael Ek
Affiliation: NCAR/RAL/JNT 

Local land-atmosphere coupling involves the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and in turn with the free atmosphere above.  Initiation of fair-weather cumulus requires an increase in relative humidity at the ABL top, and depends on a number of processes, some opposing each other.  Those processes include the evolution of surface fluxes, sub-surface heat and moisture transport, surface-layer turbulence, boundary-layer development, and warm- and dry-air entrainment into the ABL from the free atmosphere above.  Following an analytical development, we use modeling and observational data sets to examine this question.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, June 14, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

2018 NORTH AMERICAN WORKSHOP ON HAIL & HAILSTORMS
AUGUST 14 - 16, 2018, BOULDER, COLORADO
NCAR CENTER GREEN CAMPUS

Across North America, hailstorms are responsible for over $10 billion dollars in annual property damage. The increase in the impact of hailstorms has outpaced advances in detection, forecasting, and mitigation. The National Science Foundation, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety are organizing the first North American Workshop on hail, and hailstorms. The workshop will bring together public and private stakeholders to discuss the current state of the science regarding all facets of this peril and provide a look to the future. The workshop will be held at the NCAR Center Green 1 (CG1) campus, 3080 Center Green Drive, Boulder, Colorado.

Call For Abstracts: The deadline for abstract submissions is May 1, 2018.

For information: https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/north-american-hail-workshop 

First Name: 
Kris
Last Name: 
Marwitz
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8198
Email: 
KMARWITZ@UCAR.EDU
Building:
Room Number: 
Auditorium
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Repeats every day every Monday and every Tuesday and every Wednesday and every Thursday and every Friday until Thu Aug 16 2018.
Tuesday, August 14, 2018 - 9:00am to Thursday, August 16, 2018 - 5:00pm
Wednesday, August 15, 2018 - 9:00am to Friday, August 17, 2018 - 5:00pm
Thursday, August 16, 2018 - 9:00am to Saturday, August 18, 2018 - 5:00pm

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Past MMM Events

** Special MMM Seminar **

Simulation of ice particle shape effects using NTU multi-moment microphysics scheme

 Jen-Ping ChenNational Taiwan University 

Ice crystal shape effect (ICSE) on cloud microphysical processes remains an unresolved issue in cloud modeling. This study incorporated a newly developed three-moment modal parameterization with shape representation for pristine ice crystal and snow aggregates into the WRF model to investigate ICSE. This NTU-v2 scheme allows gradual adaptation of ice crystal habits under varying environmental conditions and thus keeps previous memory of shape. Furthermore, density variations are considered for pristine cloud ice, snow aggregate, and rimed ice (graupel). Shape and density variations are taken into account in calculating the particle fall speed and radar reflectivity. This talk presents a C3VP case to demonstrate the sensitivity of ICSE, as well as a mid-latitude cold front case during the DIAMET campaign for further comparison with aircraft observations. Both cases showed strong influence of ICSE on cloud structure and precipitation. In addition, the effect of particle shape on radar reflectivity calculation is also demonstrated.

 *Please note special day and timeRefreshments 9:45 AM

Building:
Room Number: 
Main Auditorium, Room 1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Tuesday, June 26, 2018 - 10:00pm to Wednesday, June 27, 2018 - 12:00am

** Special MMM Seminar **

Simulation of ice particle shape effects using NTU multi-moment microphysics scheme

 Jen-Ping Chen
National Taiwan University 

Ice crystal shape effect (ICSE) on cloud microphysical processes remains an unresolved issue in cloud modeling. This study incorporated a newly developed three-moment modal parameterization with shape representation for pristine ice crystal and snow aggregates into the WRF model to investigate ICSE. This NTU-v2 scheme allows gradual adaptation of ice crystal habits under varying environmental conditions and thus keeps previous memory of shape. Furthermore, density variations are considered for pristine cloud ice, snow aggregate, and rimed ice (graupel). Shape and density variations are taken into account in calculating the particle fall speed and radar reflectivity. This talk presents a C3VP case to demonstrate the sensitivity of ICSE, as well as a mid-latitude cold front case during the DIAMET campaign for further comparison with aircraft observations. Both cases showed strong influence of ICSE on cloud structure and precipitation. In addition, the effect of particle shape on radar reflectivity calculation is also demonstrated.

 *Please note special day and time
Refreshments 9:45 AM

First Name: 
Nancy
Last Name: 
Kerner
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
nskerner@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
Main Auditorium, Room 1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Tuesday, June 26, 2018 - 10:00am to 12:00pm

Speaker: Flavio LehnerAffiliation: NCAR/RAL/CGD

The Southwestern US experiences substantial natural variability in precipitation and temperature, on timescales ranging from daily to decadal. This variability makes the environment for prediction and management of water resources – critical tasks to ensure the well-being of society in this water-scarce region – challenging. Strong trends from the 1980s to the 2010s from cool and wet to warm and dry conditions, have led to intermittent drought conditions and reduced streamflow predictability. These impacts have led to discussion about the role of anthropogenic climate change, and have also led to other initiatives such as policy-driven drought mitigation and new drought adaptation plans issued by federal agencies.

Here I will address three questions that the trends toward drying and warming have prompted: (1) How unusual are these trends? (2) Can we attribute these trends to anthropogenic climate change? (3) How can we use the answers to question (1) and (2) to increase the resilience of society to such trends in the future? Using tree-ring based reconstructions of hydroclimate, I document the influence of precipitation and temperature on streamflow during the several hundred years before instrumental records became available, providing a baseline for the role of internal versus externally forced climate variability. I then use a constructed circulation analog technique and a set of climate model simulations to dissect and attribute the recent trends. Finally, I will illustrate how we can use this information to improve operational seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Southwest, in an attempt to close the notoriously open circle of research-to-operations.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, June 29, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

Speaker: Flavio Lehner
Affiliation: NCAR/RAL/CGD

The Southwestern US experiences substantial natural variability in precipitation and temperature, on timescales ranging from daily to decadal. This variability makes the environment for prediction and management of water resources – critical tasks to ensure the well-being of society in this water-scarce region – challenging. Strong trends from the 1980s to the 2010s from cool and wet to warm and dry conditions, have led to intermittent drought conditions and reduced streamflow predictability. These impacts have led to discussion about the role of anthropogenic climate change, and have also led to other initiatives such as policy-driven drought mitigation and new drought adaptation plans issued by federal agencies.

Here I will address three questions that the trends toward drying and warming have prompted: (1) How unusual are these trends? (2) Can we attribute these trends to anthropogenic climate change? (3) How can we use the answers to question (1) and (2) to increase the resilience of society to such trends in the future? Using tree-ring based reconstructions of hydroclimate, I document the influence of precipitation and temperature on streamflow during the several hundred years before instrumental records became available, providing a baseline for the role of internal versus externally forced climate variability. I then use a constructed circulation analog technique and a set of climate model simulations to dissect and attribute the recent trends. Finally, I will illustrate how we can use this information to improve operational seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Southwest, in an attempt to close the notoriously open circle of research-to-operations.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, June 28, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Special Day, Time, and LocationSpeaker: Brenda PhilipsAffiliation: University of Massachusetts, Amherst 

When people receive a hazard warning and decide to take protective action, such as sheltering in place, avoiding flooded roads, or protecting property, that decision is not made all at once. Theoretical and empirical research has demonstrated that individuals go through a process that involves receiving the warning, understanding the warning, personalizing the risk, and then taking protective action. Personalizing the risk, the expectation of personal impacts to self, family, property and daily activities, is a critical component of the protective action decision-making process. While hazards research focuses on the cognitive and emotional dimensions of personalization, there is also an important spatial and temporal component. Home, work, and areas of daily activity are physical locations that can be mapped over time to create individual mobility patterns, or footprints. Research in mobility patterns shows that people are creatures of habit and their mobility patterns are largely predictable. If we can predict people’s location and activities at different times of the day, why not use that information for weather alerts and warnings?

This talk will present exploratory research on the potential benefits of incorporating individual footprints into the severe weather warning systems for tornados, flash floods and severe thunderstorms. Our exploratory research examines the potential of warning people based on their individual perceptions and contexts, and how the complexity of human perception and response can be incorporated operationally into warning system technology. Advances in high resolution weather sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT), mobility-enabled Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and high levels of mobile phone usage makes these individualized warnings possible.

This research uses an innovative, multidisciplinary living lab infrastructure located in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex in north Texas to explore individualized warning. The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Living Lab for Severe Weather is a sensors-to-human warning system infrastructure where research can be conducted during live severe weather events with stakeholders and the general public. As part of this research platform, we have created a mobile phone app called CASA Alerts that delivers real-time, user-driven weather alerts to the public. The app also functions as a tool for conducting cross-sectional and longitudinal research on human behavior, perception and response.

Refreshments: 1:45 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Please note location)
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Wednesday, June 13, 2018 - 2:00am to 3:00am

Special Day, Time, and Location
Speaker: Brenda Philips
Affiliation: University of Massachusetts, Amherst 

When people receive a hazard warning and decide to take protective action, such as sheltering in place, avoiding flooded roads, or protecting property, that decision is not made all at once. Theoretical and empirical research has demonstrated that individuals go through a process that involves receiving the warning, understanding the warning, personalizing the risk, and then taking protective action. Personalizing the risk, the expectation of personal impacts to self, family, property and daily activities, is a critical component of the protective action decision-making process. While hazards research focuses on the cognitive and emotional dimensions of personalization, there is also an important spatial and temporal component. Home, work, and areas of daily activity are physical locations that can be mapped over time to create individual mobility patterns, or footprints. Research in mobility patterns shows that people are creatures of habit and their mobility patterns are largely predictable. If we can predict people’s location and activities at different times of the day, why not use that information for weather alerts and warnings?

This talk will present exploratory research on the potential benefits of incorporating individual footprints into the severe weather warning systems for tornados, flash floods and severe thunderstorms. Our exploratory research examines the potential of warning people based on their individual perceptions and contexts, and how the complexity of human perception and response can be incorporated operationally into warning system technology. Advances in high resolution weather sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT), mobility-enabled Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and high levels of mobile phone usage makes these individualized warnings possible.

This research uses an innovative, multidisciplinary living lab infrastructure located in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex in north Texas to explore individualized warning. The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Living Lab for Severe Weather is a sensors-to-human warning system infrastructure where research can be conducted during live severe weather events with stakeholders and the general public. As part of this research platform, we have created a mobile phone app called CASA Alerts that delivers real-time, user-driven weather alerts to the public. The app also functions as a tool for conducting cross-sectional and longitudinal research on human behavior, perception and response.

Refreshments: 1:45 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Please note location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Tuesday, June 12, 2018 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Rescheduled Date from June 14, 2018 Speaker: Michael Ek Affiliation: NCAR/RAL/JNT

Local land-atmosphere coupling involves the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and in turn with the free atmosphere above.  Initiation of fair-weather cumulus requires an increase in relative humidity at the ABL top, and depends on a number of processes, some opposing each other.  Those processes include the evolution of surface fluxes, sub-surface heat and moisture transport, surface-layer turbulence, boundary-layer development, and warm- and dry-air entrainment into the ABL from the free atmosphere above.  Following an analytical development, we use modeling and observational data sets to examine this question.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Prof. Christopher RufAffiliation: University of Michigan

The CYGNSS constellation of eight satellites was successfully launched on 15 December 2016 into a low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit. Each satellite carries a four-channel bistatic radar receiver which measures GPS signals scattered by the ocean, from which ocean surface roughness, near surface wind speed and air-sea latent heat flux, and land surface soil moisture and flood inundation are estimated. The measurements are unique in several respects, most notably in their ability to penetrate through all levels of precipitation, made possible by the low frequency at which GPS operates, and in the frequent sampling of extreme weather events and complete sampling of the diurnal cycle, made possible by the large number of satellites. Engineering commissioning of the constellation was successfully completed in March 2017 and the mission is currently in its science operations phase.

Level 2 science data products have been developed for near surface (10 m referenced) ocean wind speed, ocean surface roughness (mean square slope) and latent heat flux. Level 3 gridded versions of the L2 products have also been developed. A set of Level 4 products have also been developed specifically for direct tropical cyclone overpasses. These include the storm intensity (peak sustained winds) and size (radius of maximum winds), its extent (34, 50 and 64 knot wind radii), and its integrated kinetic energy. Assimilation of CYGNSS L2 wind speed data into the HWRF hurricane weather prediction model has also been developed.  Measurements over land demonstrate sensitivity to near-surface soil moisture and the ability to image flood inundation.

An overview and the current status of the mission will be presented, together with highlights of on-orbit performance and recent scientific results.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, June 8, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

Speaker: Prof. Christopher Ruf
Affiliation: University of Michigan

The CYGNSS constellation of eight satellites was successfully launched on 15 December 2016 into a low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit. Each satellite carries a four-channel bistatic radar receiver which measures GPS signals scattered by the ocean, from which ocean surface roughness, near surface wind speed and air-sea latent heat flux, and land surface soil moisture and flood inundation are estimated. The measurements are unique in several respects, most notably in their ability to penetrate through all levels of precipitation, made possible by the low frequency at which GPS operates, and in the frequent sampling of extreme weather events and complete sampling of the diurnal cycle, made possible by the large number of satellites. Engineering commissioning of the constellation was successfully completed in March 2017 and the mission is currently in its science operations phase.

Level 2 science data products have been developed for near surface (10 m referenced) ocean wind speed, ocean surface roughness (mean square slope) and latent heat flux. Level 3 gridded versions of the L2 products have also been developed. A set of Level 4 products have also been developed specifically for direct tropical cyclone overpasses. These include the storm intensity (peak sustained winds) and size (radius of maximum winds), its extent (34, 50 and 64 knot wind radii), and its integrated kinetic energy. Assimilation of CYGNSS L2 wind speed data into the HWRF hurricane weather prediction model has also been developed.  Measurements over land demonstrate sensitivity to near-surface soil moisture and the ability to image flood inundation.

An overview and the current status of the mission will be presented, together with highlights of on-orbit performance and recent scientific results.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, June 7, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Speaker: Morris WeismanAffiliation: NCAR/MMM 

Over the past three years, NCAR/MMM has offered access to 48-h forecasts from an experimental 10-member convection-allowing (3-km) ensemble based on the WRF-ARW model, using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble Kalman filter approach to produce perturbations for the model initial state. These forecasts have offered new insights into the potential predictability of hazardous convective weather events such as supercells, derechos, and flash flooding, as well as helping to refine the use of ensemble probabilistic guidance for such forecast applications. In this talk, I will review examples of extreme convective events for which forecasts were significantly improved by the use of such a high-resolution ensemble but will also highlight some of the more systematic forecast limitations that were noted over the course of this experiment. One of the more common failure modes was a tendency for the forecast convection to be somewhat north of the observed convection. There was also a tendency for the entire ensemble to be significantly and consistently wrong for the bigger forecast busts. The lack of sufficient ensemble spread for such cases is still under investigation.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, May 25, 2018 - 3:30am to 4:30am

Pages