Events (Upcoming & Past)

Past MMM Events

Buo-Fu ChenNational Taiwan UniversityNCAR/MMM  

Although deep-layer (200−850 hPa) vertical wind shear (VWS) is generally an inhibiting factor for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, there is still a considerable variability of TC intensification and structural evolution under similar VWS magnitudes. A hypothesis to address this variability is that the interaction between a vertically-sheared TC and the shear-relative low-level mean flow (LMF) modifies the convective structure and its azimuthal distribution, resulting in various pathways of TC structure evolution. This hypothesis was explored from three different perspectives: (1) a global, climatological statistical analysis of the correlations between the 24-hour intensity/size changes and the shear-relative LMF orientations, (2) examining the structural evolution of 180 western North Pacific TCs based on satellite composites, (3) a set of idealized numerical simulations produced with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Based on the best track data of 775 TCs from all basins during 2003−2016, statistical results suggest that a TC affected by an LMF orienting toward down-shear-left favors a relatively large intensification rate, while an LMF orienting toward up-shear-right is favorable for TC expansion. Also, in a storm-motion-relative and shear-relative framework, the analyses based on satellite observations and idealized WRF simulations reveal possible mesoscale processes in the boundary layer causing the distinct convective features associated with TCs affected by various shear-relative LMF. 

Refreshments:  3:15 PM

Note Special Location

Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, February 2, 2018 - 5:30am to 6:30am

Buo-Fu Chen
National Taiwan University
NCAR/MMM  

Although deep-layer (200−850 hPa) vertical wind shear (VWS) is generally an inhibiting factor for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, there is still a considerable variability of TC intensification and structural evolution under similar VWS magnitudes. A hypothesis to address this variability is that the interaction between a vertically-sheared TC and the shear-relative low-level mean flow (LMF) modifies the convective structure and its azimuthal distribution, resulting in various pathways of TC structure evolution. This hypothesis was explored from three different perspectives: (1) a global, climatological statistical analysis of the correlations between the 24-hour intensity/size changes and the shear-relative LMF orientations, (2) examining the structural evolution of 180 western North Pacific TCs based on satellite composites, (3) a set of idealized numerical simulations produced with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Based on the best track data of 775 TCs from all basins during 2003−2016, statistical results suggest that a TC affected by an LMF orienting toward down-shear-left favors a relatively large intensification rate, while an LMF orienting toward up-shear-right is favorable for TC expansion. Also, in a storm-motion-relative and shear-relative framework, the analyses based on satellite observations and idealized WRF simulations reveal possible mesoscale processes in the boundary layer causing the distinct convective features associated with TCs affected by various shear-relative LMF. 

Refreshments:  3:15 PM

Note Special Location

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1001 (Note Location)
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, February 1, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Julia SlingoChief Scientist, UK Met Office, EmeritusUnited Kingdom

Today, we live in a global economy, relying on global trade, efficient transport systems and resilient and reliable provision. As we see time and time again, all these systems are vulnerable to adverse weather and climate conditions. The additional pressure of climate change creates a new set of circumstances and poses new challenges about how secure we will be in the future. More than ever, the weather and climate of food, energy and water have considerable direct and indirect impacts on us – our livelihoods, property, health, well-being and prosperity. In this talk I will describe recent advances in understanding, simulating and predicting our weather and climate and how these developments can be deployed to help us manage our risks, now and in the future.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, January 26, 2018 - 5:30am to 6:30am

Julia Slingo
Chief Scientist, UK Met Office, Emeritus
United Kingdom

Today, we live in a global economy, relying on global trade, efficient transport systems and resilient and reliable provision. As we see time and time again, all these systems are vulnerable to adverse weather and climate conditions. The additional pressure of climate change creates a new set of circumstances and poses new challenges about how secure we will be in the future. More than ever, the weather and climate of food, energy and water have considerable direct and indirect impacts on us – our livelihoods, property, health, well-being and prosperity. In this talk I will describe recent advances in understanding, simulating and predicting our weather and climate and how these developments can be deployed to help us manage our risks, now and in the future.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, January 25, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm
WRF TUTORIAL OVERVIEW

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Tutorial will be held at the NCAR Foothills Laboratory (FL2) located at 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, Colorado from 22 January - 2 February 2018.

The Basic tutorial will consist of lectures on various components of the WRF modeling system along with hands-on practice sessions.  (22 - 26 January 2018)

The WRF-Chem tutorial will provide lectures on main components of the model and associated tools along with hands-on practice sessions.  (29 - 30 January 2018)

The MET tutorial and the associated database and display system (METViewer) is a suite of state-of-the-art verification tools that can be used to read post-processed WRF output and match it to observed data to compute both traditional and non-traditional statistics.  MET and METViewer are being wrapped with python to extend the MET capability and make it easier to set-up a verification system.  This tutorial will provide lectures on main tools along with hands-on practice sessions.

https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf-tutorial-0

Building:
Room Number: 
Large Auditorium
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
No
Calendar Timing: 
Repeats every day every Monday and every Tuesday and every Wednesday and every Thursday and every Friday until Fri Feb 02 2018.
Friday, February 2, 2018 - 10:30pm to Saturday, February 3, 2018 - 7:00am
WRF TUTORIAL OVERVIEW

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Tutorial will be held at the NCAR Foothills Laboratory (FL2) located at 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, Colorado from 22 January - 2 February 2018.

The Basic tutorial will consist of lectures on various components of the WRF modeling system along with hands-on practice sessions.  (22 - 26 January 2018)

The WRF-Chem tutorial will provide lectures on main components of the model and associated tools along with hands-on practice sessions.  (29 - 30 January 2018)

The MET tutorial and the associated database and display system (METViewer) is a suite of state-of-the-art verification tools that can be used to read post-processed WRF output and match it to observed data to compute both traditional and non-traditional statistics.  MET and METViewer are being wrapped with python to extend the MET capability and make it easier to set-up a verification system.  This tutorial will provide lectures on main tools along with hands-on practice sessions.

https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf-tutorial-0

First Name: 
Kris
Last Name: 
Marwitz
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8198
Email: 
kmarwitz@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
Large Auditorium
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Monday, January 22, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Tuesday, January 23, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Wednesday, January 24, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Thursday, January 25, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Friday, January 26, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Monday, January 29, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Tuesday, January 30, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Thursday, February 1, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm
Friday, February 2, 2018 - 8:30am to 5:00pm

Kevin Ash NCAR/MMM/ASP 

Extreme weather and climate events continue to plague the United States in tandem with increased societal exposure and susceptibility stemming from higher population densities in hazardous locations and the exacerbated frequency and intensity of some hazards in association with anthropogenic climate change.  In this presentation I will focus on severe thunderstorm hazards, and specifically on risk perception, vulnerability, & communication in the tornado context.  Despite advances in forecasting and detection of severe thunderstorms over the past several decades, the calendar year 2011 saw over 500 deaths from tornadoes in the United States for the first time since 1953.  These events renewed interest in social science research related to severe thunderstorm hazards in order to better understand how people perceive danger from tornadoes and act (or fail to act) to protect themselves and their families when tornadoes threaten.

I will highlight two of my recent research projects and connect these to my current research.  The first seeks to understand how people interpret and potentially act upon spatially explicit visual depictions of tornado warnings.  Survey participants viewed and responded to hypothetical warning maps with varying representations of risk at locations distributed evenly across the maps.  The results suggest several key concepts for spatially explicit risk communication to elicit appropriate and timely protective action.  The second research project focuses on manufactured housing residents, an especially vulnerable sub-population which comprises nearly half of tornado fatalities.  The project used a mixed method research design to better understand why very few manufactured housing residents follow the recommendation to evacuate to a tornado shelter or other sturdy building during a tornado warning.  Based on interviews and survey data, many residents do not believe their manufactured home to be an unsafe sheltering location, while others who would like to evacuate are often very uncertain about appropriate timing and destinations for evacuation.  I will conclude by discussing how future work will incorporate risk perception, vulnerability, and communication within a single geospatial modeling framework.  

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, January 19, 2018 - 5:30am to 6:30am

Kevin Ash
NCAR/MMM/ASP 

Extreme weather and climate events continue to plague the United States in tandem with increased societal exposure and susceptibility stemming from higher population densities in hazardous locations and the exacerbated frequency and intensity of some hazards in association with anthropogenic climate change.  In this presentation I will focus on severe thunderstorm hazards, and specifically on risk perception, vulnerability, & communication in the tornado context.  Despite advances in forecasting and detection of severe thunderstorms over the past several decades, the calendar year 2011 saw over 500 deaths from tornadoes in the United States for the first time since 1953.  These events renewed interest in social science research related to severe thunderstorm hazards in order to better understand how people perceive danger from tornadoes and act (or fail to act) to protect themselves and their families when tornadoes threaten.

I will highlight two of my recent research projects and connect these to my current research.  The first seeks to understand how people interpret and potentially act upon spatially explicit visual depictions of tornado warnings.  Survey participants viewed and responded to hypothetical warning maps with varying representations of risk at locations distributed evenly across the maps.  The results suggest several key concepts for spatially explicit risk communication to elicit appropriate and timely protective action.  The second research project focuses on manufactured housing residents, an especially vulnerable sub-population which comprises nearly half of tornado fatalities.  The project used a mixed method research design to better understand why very few manufactured housing residents follow the recommendation to evacuate to a tornado shelter or other sturdy building during a tornado warning.  Based on interviews and survey data, many residents do not believe their manufactured home to be an unsafe sheltering location, while others who would like to evacuate are often very uncertain about appropriate timing and destinations for evacuation.  I will conclude by discussing how future work will incorporate risk perception, vulnerability, and communication within a single geospatial modeling framework.  

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, January 18, 2018 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Joseph Olson Global Systems Division NOAA--Earth System Research Laboratory 

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are NOAA real-time operational hourly updating forecast systems run at 13- and 3-km grid spacing, respectively. Both systems use the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) as the model component of the forecast system. During the second installment of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2), the RAP/HRRR have been targeted for the improvement of low-level wind forecasts in the complex terrain within the Columbia River Basin (CRB), which requires much finer grid spacing to resolve important topographic features in/near the CRB. Therefore, this project provides a unique opportunity to test and develop the RAP/HRRR physics suite within a very high-resolution nest (∆x = 750 m) over the northwestern US. Special effort is made to incorporate scale-adaptive flexibility into the RAP/HRRR physics suite, with emphasis on the representation of subgrid-scale boundary layer and orographic drag processes.

Many wind profiling and scanning instruments have been deployed in the CRB in support the WFIP 2 field project, which spanned 01 October 2015 to 31 March 2017. During the project, several forecast error modes were identified, such as: (1) too-shallow cold pools during the cool season, which can mix-out more frequently than observed and (2) the low wind speed bias in thermal trough-induced gap flows during the warm season. Development has been focused on improving these common forecast failure modes with the criteria of achieving at least neutral impacts in all other operational forecast objectives. This presentation will highlight the testing and development of various model components, showing the improvements over original RAP/HRRR physics. Examples of case studies and retrospective periods will be presented to illustrate the improvements.  Ongoing and future challenges in RAP/HRRR physics development will be touched upon.

Refreshments: 3:15 pm

Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Type of event:
Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar Timing: 
Friday, December 1, 2017 - 5:30am to 6:30am

Joseph Olson
Global Systems Division
NOAA--Earth System Research Laboratory 

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are NOAA real-time operational hourly updating forecast systems run at 13- and 3-km grid spacing, respectively. Both systems use the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) as the model component of the forecast system. During the second installment of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2), the RAP/HRRR have been targeted for the improvement of low-level wind forecasts in the complex terrain within the Columbia River Basin (CRB), which requires much finer grid spacing to resolve important topographic features in/near the CRB. Therefore, this project provides a unique opportunity to test and develop the RAP/HRRR physics suite within a very high-resolution nest (∆x = 750 m) over the northwestern US. Special effort is made to incorporate scale-adaptive flexibility into the RAP/HRRR physics suite, with emphasis on the representation of subgrid-scale boundary layer and orographic drag processes.

Many wind profiling and scanning instruments have been deployed in the CRB in support the WFIP 2 field project, which spanned 01 October 2015 to 31 March 2017. During the project, several forecast error modes were identified, such as: (1) too-shallow cold pools during the cool season, which can mix-out more frequently than observed and (2) the low wind speed bias in thermal trough-induced gap flows during the warm season. Development has been focused on improving these common forecast failure modes with the criteria of achieving at least neutral impacts in all other operational forecast objectives. This presentation will highlight the testing and development of various model components, showing the improvements over original RAP/HRRR physics. Examples of case studies and retrospective periods will be presented to illustrate the improvements.  Ongoing and future challenges in RAP/HRRR physics development will be touched upon.

Refreshments: 3:15 pm

First Name: 
Bobbie
Last Name: 
Weaver
Phone Extension (4 digits): 
8946
Email: 
weaver@ucar.edu
Building:
Room Number: 
1022
Host lab/program/group:
Type of event:
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, November 30, 2017 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

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